Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, April 21, 2017 at 12:00 PM
You already know that pro football is king in Las Vegas. When the NFL announced its regular season schedule Thursday night, Vegas sportsbooks were ready to put up numbers for Week One and start taking action!
Is it smart to bet the NFL in April? Shouldn’t gamblers wait until they know which star players were drafted out of the colleges? Shouldn’t they make sure their starting quarterback didn’t get hurt in exhibition action? Why would you let a sportsbook hold onto YOUR money for so long?
Let me tell you. Some sharps DO bet these early lines because they’re confident that they’re going to get the best of it over their full slate. Sure, they might suffer bad luck with an injury in August. Or, they might discover that waiting would have picked up a point or two for them. But, if they make five bets they consider to be very strong, a 3-2 record over every five bets is going to make them money. Sharps aren’t looking to win every play, they’re trying to earn money by finding value.
How do you find value in April? Pick your spots!
Once a sportsbook commits to posting lines for Week One, that means they have to post numbers for every single game. The pressure is on sportsbooks to get all 16 matchups right. Sharps only have to find a handful of mistakes over the 32 options (sides and totals) to make it worth their while.
Also, sharps know that:
*The draft doesn’t usually immediately impact Power Ratings
*Most starting quarterbacks don’t get injured in the preseason
*Team quality is fairly stable from season to season
*The fundamentals of line movement still apply
On that last one, I mean that “betting favorites early” and “betting underdogs late” can still be put to good use around critical numbers. If you think bettors will like New England at -7 over Kansas City in the season opener come September (that was the opening line at the Westgate), you can take the Pats now, then come back over the top later on KC +8 (or more).
And, they also know that oddsmakers and the public tend to evaluate teams about what they remember from late the prior season. So, it’s possible to catch the market napping on teams that limped home because of several injuries or because the players hated a head coach who got fired after the season. It’s not that hard to find a couple of teams who are going to be 2-3 points better than their late season 2016 Power Rating. Sharps can jump in now on those before everyone else figures out what they already know.
Something for you to think about as you look over the Westgate openers…
Kansas City at New England (-7, 50)
NY Jets at Buffalo (-6.5, 42)
Atlanta (-5.5, 50) at Chicago
Jacksonville at Houston (-4.5, 42)
Philadelphia at Washington (-2.5, 48)
Arizona at Detroit (-2.5, 49.5)
Oakland at Tennessee (pick-em, 53.5)
Tampa Bay at Miami (pick-em, 48)
Baltimore at Cincinnati (-1, 44)
Pittsburgh (-9.5, 47) at Cleveland
Indianapolis (-3.5, 48) at the LA Rams
Seattle at Green Bay (-2.5, 50)
Carolina (-4.5, 49) at San Francisco
NY Giants at Dallas (-6, 50.5)
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4, 48)
LA Chargers at Denver (-3.5, 44.5)
Last time we were together I promised we’d look at how sharps are dealing with the site switches in the NBA Playoffs. When the series underdog gets its first home game…you often see a huge effort in front of that rabid crowd that’s been waiting all week to cheer. But, that doesn’t always mean MONEY.
*Milwaukee played great and covered Thursday night
*Memphis played great and covered Thursday night
*Indiana played great for a half, then collapsed!
It’s been a real cat and mouse game between oddsmakers and their clientele in recent days. Everyone knows that both sharps and squares want to bet “bounce back” teams who are in must-win situations. Oddsmakers can’t balance the books in these cases, so they try to charge a penalty for taking the bounce back squad. If a home favorite should be -1 in a normal situation, maybe they’re -2.5 or -3 in the must-win spot. Sharps pass because line value is largely gone, and the public either passes or lays the inflated number and hopes for a blowout.
My advice to you is that you only bet the bounce backs if you have a really good feel for the team…and if you believe they have an advantage they can exploit. I released Milwaukee (-) to my clients Thursday night because I thought their athleticism and defensive hustle would be magnified even more in a first look in front of their loud home crowd. Toronto was down 32-12 before they knew what hit them! That worked out even better than I had hoped.
It’s too early to release football…but you can get purchase my daily BEST BETS in the NBA Playoffs and Major League Baseball right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155.
Sports betting is a year-round opportunity. Sharps take advantage of value whenever they find it on the calendar…whether it’s minutes before a game starts or months. I hope my online articles help you think like a sharp and bet like a sharp. Thanks for reading today. I’ll see you again right here very soon.