Submitted by Winning Edge on Friday, March 10, 2017 at 10:00 AM
For years I’ve been telling you to focus on underdogs in the strongest conference tournaments because the best teams will likely get caught looking ahead to the Big Dance. Thursday’s results bore that out in fairly dramatic fashion. Not only did projected #1 national seed Kansas lose in a shocker to TCU…but:
*Underdogs in the Big 12 went 4-0 against the spread, including other outright upsets by Kansas State (a millionaire play on my Root Trust) over Baylor and Iowa State over Oklahoma State.
*Underdogs in the ACC went 3-1 against the spread, including outright upsets by Duke over Louisville and Notre Dame over Virginia.
Now, it’s not like dogs covered up and down the card. A lot of teams don’t have the luxury of being locked into great seeds in the Dance! Many bubble teams in the majors, or power teams in the mid-majors HAVE to win. But, you could see less intense defense than we’re used to in the two strongest conferences in the nation…and nothing approaching a win at all cost mentality from teams like Kansas, Baylor, and Virginia in particular.
As we look ahead to the weekend, this dynamic could very much be in play. Quarterfinal survivors still want to pace themselves through the weekend. The worst thing that can happen now is to suffer a serious injury or energy drain just days before the Big Dance. It’s fun to cut down the nets in your conference tournament. But, if you can do that while going three-quarters effort on defense and draining some three’s…ideal! There may be some other #1 seeds besides Kansas that disappoint their fans between now and the end of action Sunday.
The other thing that’s struck me so far besides the upsets is the number of pure blowouts. You have to feel sorry for everyone attending the Big 10 tournament in Washington, D.C. There wasn’t a good game in the whole Thursday quadruple-header. Michigan won by 20 despite playing in gym clothes. The two fatigued teams (both Penn State and Rutgers played the night before) were absolutely obliterated. Indiana rose from the dead to obliterate Iowa.
Tournament week really can be full of extremes. Favorites who do show up can run away and hide from outmanned or tired opponents. Favorites who don’t bring peak intensity can lose, or barely survive like UCLA did in the Pac 12 nightcap vs. USC (here in Las Vegas!). Many lines are going to miss the final scoreboard by a mile. Not because oddsmakers don’t know what they’re doing. But, because real-world potential is so wildly varied in these events that lines can’t really capture it.
If BOTH teams show up with PEAK INTENSITY then the game will likely land close to the number. If not, FREE MONEY if you can deduce which side is going to bring more intensity.
That’s the backdrop for what I expect to be one of my biggest weekends ever. Coming off a winning Thursday, I’m looking to attack the board aggressively Friday, Saturday, and in Sunday’s remaining championship games. We’re smack dab in the middle of the biggest sports wagering month of the year…so make sure you’re with THE KING OF LAS VEGAS!
If you’re a do-it-yourselfer, look to back:
*Teams with depth AND motivation to give peak effort
*Teams with multiple offensive weapons
*Teams who are convinced they have to win to reach the Big Dance
Look to fade:
*Teams who are locked into a great Dance seed and don’t want to over-exert themselves
*Teams who lack the depth required to play well on consecutive days
*Teams who rely on one key scorer that can be taken away by smart opposition defense or fatigue
If you’re not a do-it-yourselfer, you can purchase my day and night BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Take care of business NOW so you can maximize your value during this busy part of the sports betting schedule.
Back with you again early next week to talk about strategies for finding Cinderella stories in the Big Dance. I know you’re chomping at the bit to win some money. Hook up with the only man in the sports betting industry to earn a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas. It’s time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!