Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, February 28, 2017 at 5:00 PM
As I write this up for you, my service selections are 9-2 the last few days. Now, honestly, there’s no way I’m going to maintain THAT pace because nobody can stay at 80-plus percent for very long. We try to grind along and make a run at 55% to 60% over the long haul, hopefully a bit better on the strongest plays. There’s plenty of room to cool off from 82% and still make a profit.
But, the list of winners might surprise many of you who are just now gearing up for college hoops because the tournaments are almost here. Among the winners in that 9-2 run are…
Oakland (pk) over Green Bay
Valpo (-) over Wright State
UTEP (-) over Florida International
Northern Kentucky (+) over Valpo
Lipscomb (-) over NJIT
Now, I also had some major conference scores with Miami (+) over Duke and Kansas (-) over Texas. But a lot of the heavy lifting was done by off-the-radar teams that the general public barely even follows. You know Valpo once hit a buzzer beater in the Big Dance. Can you believe that was 19 years ago? Oakland isn’t the Raiders or the A’s. Northern Kentucky? Lipscomb? Richie B. knows those teams! You probably don’t.
I can tell you from my years behind the line that sportsbook directors are terrified when educated money starts hitting off-the-rader games like that. Obviously somebody must know something because there’s no way the public is touching those games. The first assumption is that an injury or some other key information is involved. But, sometimes it’s just a smart handicapper having a better read than oddsmakers who are focused on the major conferences.
I didn’t win those games because I had secret news about injuries. My personal numbers were better than the market numbers. My read on the flow of the season for those teams was better than the market. My read on one-game motivation was better than the market. I made smart bets, and encouraged my clients to do the same.
This is an important lesson for all of you who dream one day of becoming sharps. Hit the market at its weakest points!
Generally speaking the lines are more solid in the major TV conferences. Yes, oddsmakers can still miss some ups and downs in the ACC or Pac 12. Yes, the Big 10 has been almost upside down in recent days with many of the early stalwarts struggling while a few others are making late runs. (Northwestern fans can never relax!). But, on the whole…
*The market will divide the money better in the major conferences
*The market numbers will be closer to the final scoreboard more often in the major conferences
*The market will react more quickly to developments in the major conferences
That’s definitely worth keeping in mind as more mid-major tournaments get under way this week. If you have time…dig in and research team quality, pointspread performance, and recent form in one or more of these conferences…
Ohio Valley Conference (begins Wednesday in Nashville)
Missouri Valley Conference (begins Thursday in St. Louis-Arch Madness!)
Metro-Atlantic Conference (begins Thursday in Albany)
Horizon League (begins Friday in Detroit)
Colonial Conference (begins Friday in Charleston)
West Coast Conference (begins Friday at the Orleans Arena here in Las Vegas)
Southern Conference (begins Friday in Asheville)
Obviously you can’t go from 0 to 60 right away in all of those conferences. That’s too many teams and too much work to complete in a matter of hours. But, you can pick one or two of those conferences…maybe the ones closest to you geographically. You can study the opening round boxscores diligently once the games begin so you can make smart bets in the semifinals and finals.
Or, I suppose, you can take the easier way out and just sign up for my service! I’ll be picking my spots in those leagues, only stepping in when it’s warranted. The TV networks will be all over the final week of the regular season in their corporate partner conferences. Hype for Saturday night’s Duke/North Carolina game began a week ago! We’ll try to sneak in and grab some winners.
You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about offers that take you through all of the college tournaments or the NBA Playoffs.
Back with you again before the weekend with more basketball betting talk. Then we’ll pick up the pace with our reports on what sharps are betting as we get deeper into March. As always, thanks for reading!