Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, February 24, 2017 at 12:00 PM
If you’re a sports bettor, you’re going to be spending a lot of time the next few days watching great games on TV. Be sure you take advantage of this opportunity to really pin down your Power Ratings in the major conferences so you’re ready for the conference tournaments that begin in early March.
You’re probably going to watch Florida/Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Why wouldn’t you?! What would the pointspread be if those two teams met in the SEC Championship game in a couple of weeks? Well, that’s actually pretty easy to figure out. Just look at Saturday’s settled line (once sharps are done shaping the oddsmaker’s openers), and then knock off 3-4 points from home team Kentucky. Home court value is usually worth 3 points in college hoops…but sometimes more for certain locales.
Same thing with UCLA/Arizona Saturday night. Everyone’s looking forward to that. Those of us here in Las Vegas would love to see those two teams meet again in the Pac 12 tournament at the new T-Mobile Center in a couple of weeks! Knock three points off Arizona’s side of the spread, and you’ll have a very good sense of how these teams are rated for neutral court play by the most respected forces in the betting markets.
In every game this weekend (and through the rest of the regular season), the market is basically telling you what the spread is going to be in a neutral court meeting. That matters because a lot of matchups you’re about to watch will be repeated in the league tournament. Maybe in the quarterfinals. Maybe in the semifinals. Maybe in the finals.
If you have the time and inclination, you should try to build a scale for each conference from top to bottom. That will allow you to project through every round of all the major tourneys once the brackets are set. This kind of exercise if important to smart sports bettors because:
*The market is GREAT at evaluating teams. Yes, there are a few respected computers out there. But, the outputs from those all feed into the same betting market. If the market is telling you Team A is two points better than Team B on a neutral court…that represents the best assessment of those two teams you could find. (Now, that doesn’t mean it’s right! Nothing’s perfect. But, any shortcut you can find that provides a “best assessment” is worth your energy).
*Knowing those scales will help you in isolating weaknesses in the market. Maybe oddsmakers and sharps are just being too stubborn about Kentucky of late. Maybe they’re not giving enough respect to a late super-surger. Maybe they’re weighing the first half of the Big 10 season much more than they should be in regards to the last few weeks of Big 10 play (results have turned upside down!).
You have to respect the market before you can beat it. You CAN beat the market if you can find its hidden weak spots.
So…dig into this weekend’s (and next week’s) pointspreads and so some work!
I should also mention that you can apply this same type of strategy in the NBA. How much will the Demarcus Cousins trade effect his new team (New Orleans) and his old team (Sacramento)? The market spoke pretty loudly about that Thursday Night. New Orleans was just +3.5 or +4 at home against powerful (and fresh!) Houston. That would suggest being 7 points worse on a neutral point scale (far from a contender…but possibly a borderline playoff team). Sacramento was +7 at home vs. Denver. That’s 10-points worse than Denver on a neutral court! The market was suggesting Sacramento was going to become a tanking doormat without Cousins.
Now…one night into the new rosters…the market proved to be way off. New Orleans was no match for Houston as Cousins and Anthony Davis will need some time to get on the same page. Sacramento wanted to show off their new chemistry…and routed Denver. It will be interesting to follow those storylines moving forward. As smart as the market is…it can still only guess immediately after major personnel changes.
Needless to say, it’s a great time to be a basketball bettor. If you’d like some help making the right daily choices, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. We have great rates that take you through the NCAA Tournament or the NBA Playoffs.
Thanks for reading. Enjoy this weekend of hoops excitement! See you again next week.