Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, February 2, 2017 at 2:17 PM
Hate For Pats Shows It's A Lie Everyone Loves A Winner As 53% Of Americans Hope They Lose Super Bowl Cowboys 2nd Most Disliked Team
If New England's Defense Can't Solve Atlanta's Complex Passing Patterns, The Pats Will Lose
Seems Someone Is Wide Open On Too Many Plays
Wiseguys, Sharps Have Not Declared Themselves As Patriots Remain 3-Point Favorite
Totals Number Is All Over Board From 57-59 Points
By Kelso Sturgeon
It is no accident I have an outstanding record in the Super Bowl, standing 12-3 in the last 15 while at the same time compiling a 13-2 mark on totals. That's 83% winners in that time frame and I must give all the credit for my success to the late Kansas City Chiefs Hall of Fame Coach Hank Stram who shared with me his formula for winning the Super Bowl. He had been using it to predict the winner for several years and had never been wrong.
Please do not think I am smug and bragging. It happened.
It will always be my secret, since I was never given permission to to share it with anyone - and I won't.
The formula makes me quite confident heading into Sunday's Super Bowl that will be played at NRG Stadium, home of the Houston Texans, that I will again collect the cash and will be releasing the game as a 500-unit play - 300 units on the winning side, 100 units on the total and a 100-unit parlay of the side and total.
It is again Hank Stram time.
There is little doubt on my mind the matchup of the American Football Champion New England Patriots (16-2) and the National Football Conference Atlanta Falcons (13-5) will be one of the best Super Bowl games in years - maybe even the equal of what I believe was the greatest Super Bowl ever played - number XIII in 1979 - when the Terry Bradshaw-led Pittsburgh Steelers slipped by the Roger Staubach-led Dallas Cowboys, 34-31.
High expectations, yes.
New England has won nine straight games, is playing its best right now. Atlanta arrived at the big one riding a 6-game winning streak and most certainly is at its best.. This is the Patriot's record ninth trip to the Super Bowl (it has won four) while Atlanta is here for just the second time. The only time the Falcons made the big one came on January 31, 1999, when they were wasted by a Denver Broncos team, 34-19.
But that was then and this is now.
For the record I too am at my best right now after going 5-0 in the in the divisional and conference games and stand a perfect 9-0 with 100-unit NFL plays since December 5.
Most Hated Team In NFL Remains 3-Point Favorite
In a recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling the New England Patriots were voted by 53% of those voting as the NFL team they most disliked and it was notable only 51% of New England fans said they believed their their would beat Atlanta.
This again buries the old saw that says, "everybody" loves a winner". They don't but pray for their fall of the mighty. Good luck on that.
New England opened as a 3-point favorite and bookmakers are a somewhat surprised the number has not moved, mainly because the sharps and wiseguys have not yet surfaced to declare their intentions. One must assume they are hoping there is movement, where they can either lay -2.5 with New England or take +3.5 with Atlanta.
Amateur bettors don't pay much attention to moves that leads to the hook, but wiseguys worship such in a world where millions of dollars are won and lost by half points. While bookmakers are reluctant to move off any key number - especially 3 - they certainly do not want to see the game end in a tie and kill millions of dollars in action. Something will happen, be it up or down.
Bookmakers also report the sharps have not yet bet the total and are waiting for it to settle down - and then they will fire full-blast on the under. At this point, the total is all over the place, listed at 57, 57.5, 58, 58.5 and even 59 at two of the big Las Vegas shops.
Money line bettors will have to lay $155 to win $100 if they wager on the Patriots but will get $135 for each $100 wager if they go for the underdog Falcons
In the world of proposition bets, where some books are offering as many as 400 betting scenarios, the wiseguys have been in action and are pounding "under" any wager that includes that option.
Pats Must Stop Atlanta Passing Game - Or They Will Lose
Breaking down both Super Bowl teams raises more questions than answers. If it didn't it would not be the Super Bowl. Here are some of my personal thoughts on the game.
New England Patriots
- New England deserves to be the favorite because of its long history of winning, especially in Super Bowls. The Patriots have gone 109-46 over the past 10 seasons, been to the playoffs for seven straight years and nine of the last 10. They last won the Super Bowl two seasons ago when they edge Seattle 28-24 as a pick'em.
- New England coach Bill Belichick has been an NFL head coach for 17 years and has established himself as one of the greatest in the history of the game, standing 225-80 in that time frame.
- New England is an established winner, talented from top to bottom, led by a great quarterback in Tom Brady who is playing in his seventh Super Bowl and a coach that pulls game plans out of a hat that are give his team a chance to beat any opponent.
- Winning is a habit for New England.
- Atlanta has much better overall talent than does New England. The starting quarterbacks are equal in their ability but Atlanta's running backs and receivers are superior to those of the Patriots.
- This is but Atlanta's second trip ever to the Super Bowl and they lost that one to Denver. There are only four players on the Falcons squad that have ever played in a Super Bowl.
- Hats off to Atlanta's second year coach Dan Quinn, the man who built the great Seattle defenses went (8-8) last season and has put quickly put together a team and a coaching staff that comes to every game ready to fire its best shot and win. The Falcons definitely are a team of the future.
- Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who will take over as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers after the Super Bowl, has emerged as an offensive genius and has designed the most sophisticated pass patterns I have ever seen in the NFL - and I've been around a long time. With him calling the shots, Atlanta has the quarterback, the receivers and the running backs to dominate a game. For certain, if New England cannot slow down this troublesome offense, it will lose.
As noted I will be releasing the Super Bowl in this manner:
- 300 Units on the winning side.
- 100 Units on the total.
- 100-Unit Parlay on the side and total.
- 5 five-unit proposition bets.
You can win another Super Bowl with me, getting all the above plays, for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to you Pay Pal account. The game will be available on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.