Vegas Sports Masters Blog
Back to Blog Home…

Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 12:00 AM

O.K. I Finally Lost A 50-Unit College Basketball Play In OT No Less But Intend To Win Again Tonight 15-4 With Highroller Plays… 79% Winners For Season

Everything Is In Place For One NBA Team To Win And Cover In Powerful Fashion Tonight And It Is My 25-Unit Chairman’s Club Game Of The Week

College Bowl Season Begins Saturday With 6 Games
Minnesota Suspends 10 Players

Cavaliers Will Be Without 3 Starters At Memphis Tonight
LeBron James, Kevin Love And Kyrie Irving

Lessons Of The Week – Losers Keep Losing, Believe Weather Forecast At Your Own Risk, The Bounce Is A Fact

By Kelso Sturgeon

The list of lessons learned in football and basketball this past week is long, enlightening and hopefully buried in the gray matter between our ears – ready for instant recall. At the top of my list of lessons is to make certain you never believe weather forecasts even when the come from the two most authoritative and respected services in the world. I forgot that and got crushed because of it.

The weather forecast for the Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriot games for Foxborough was explicit from both services – 1-3 inches of snow during the game, closing out with rain. When I turned on my TV to watch the game, other than a temperature of 31 degrees the game might as well have been played in Miami. No snow, no rain and a shaky 50-unit play on under 45 – bet down from 49½ because of the weather forecast.

It all made sense to me but good sense means little when actually believing a weather forecast from anywhere. Reminds of me the day I was driving down the Las Vegas Strip in a rare desert downpour while listening to the news that included the prediction there was no chance for precipitation. Maybe tomorrow – from the so-called monsoons coming from Arizona in the South.

The loss was all on me because of the enthusiasm generated for the bet I forgot the rule to never trust weather forecasts. For what ever the reason, my brain forgot that fact and jumped right to the conclusion.

Lesson #2… One Is A Fool To Believe A Bad Team Can Finally Win

Lesson #2 comes with one of the oldest factors in the world of handicapping any sport – but especially NFL football – when bettors finally “see the light” and find the right spot to cash a ticket on a very bad team. Qualifying or that label are the Cleveland Browns (0-13) and the San Francisco 49ers, 0-12 since winning their opening game of the season.

First of all, I did win a under 43 on the 49ers-New York Jets game but certainly did not wager on a side in the two games involving these absolutely terrible teams. Obviously others did. Cleveland played a home game against the Cincinnati Bengals and late wiseguy money moved from Cincinnati -5½ to -4.0. Cleveland money was again present as it has been all season. The Browns went into that game 2-10 against the spread (ATS) this season and now stand 2-11 after losing, 23-10.

However this is not the most interesting example of betting on bad teams.

It is difficult to understand why the sharps keep betting on the Browns, even while they keep losing, but much further beyond to my imagination to figure out how anyone has the courage to go for the money with the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers took the field Sunday as 3-point favorites over a bad New York Jets team and lost to the latter, 23-17 in overtime. San Francisco has been favored in three games this season and a pick’em in a fourth and stands 0-4 straight up (SU) and 0-4 ATS in those outings, losing all of them by an average of 12½ points. For the record it was the second consecutive week the suckers bought in. The previous week the 49ers were 1-point favorites in Chicago and lost 26-6.

There is no reason to beat this dog to death but suffice it to say there is no average in believing a bad team is at last in the right spot to win for you. A bad team in the NFL is just that and regardless of its opponent or the price there is better than a 90% chance (my personal 3-year study) it will lose – again.

Lesson #3… The Bounce, The Bounce, The Bounce

Lesson #3 comes with the bounce factor – once considered a theory – but which now is simply a fact, especially in college basketball. It is in play several times each week and produces a higher percentage of wins and covers than any other element in the world of handicapping. There are two perfect examples of that from the past week

The first involves the powerful Saint Mary’s Gaels, operating out of 3,500-seat McKeon Pavilion, in Moraga, CA. Saint Mary’s does not get the recognition that its traditional West Coast Conference rival Gonzaga receives and operates its entire season in high gear, hoping to gain a bit of respect.

On Thursday, December 8, under-rated Texas-Arlington came to Moraga and took the floor as a 15-point underdog and buried St. Mary’s 65-51 as a 15-point underdog. In my opinion the line was accurate, considering the fact the always super-charged Gaels stood 49-6 the past five seasons at home against non-conference opponent.

The loss put the Gaels in major bounce-back form and in their next game took the floor an big double-digit home favorite over UC-Irvine and crushed the Anteaters by 31 points, 65-53.

The bounce worked again.

In the world of he bounce, Indiana State fit in the other end of the spectrum, beating nationally-ranked Butler December 7, 72-71, as a 9½-point underdog, and four days later took the floor as a 8-point favorite and lost to a mediocre Western Kentucky team, 77-59.

The bounce worked again.

The bounce world is quite simple.

A team playing far under its ability and loses straight up is a strong candidate to play far over its ability in its next outing and win.

A team playing far over its ability and upsets a much better team straight up is a strong candidate to play far below its performance in its next game and losing to a dramatically inferior team.

“Bounce” is not a theory. It’s a fact.

Cavaliers Will Be Without 3 Starters Tonight At Memphis

The Cleveland Cavaliers are at the Memphis Grizzlies tonight and will be without its three best players who remained in Cleveland to get a bit of rest. Not playing for the Cavaliers tonight are both starting forwards, LeBron James (25.05 points, 7.71 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game) and Kevin Love (21.7, 10.3 and 1½9) and point guard Kyrie Irving (23.9, 3.0, 4.68)

Wednesday Night’s Betting Menu

O.K. I Finally Lost A 50-Unit College Basketball Play In OT No Less But Intend To Win Again Tonight 15-4 With Highroller Plays… 79% Winners For Season

I finally lost a 50-unit Personal Best Basketball Investment Club highroller play, going down in overtime when Eastern Washington (-3) won, 88-86, against Morehead State but did not cover. Disappointing, yes, but keep in mind I am 15-4 with these plays this season, winning at a 79% clip and the last five winners have won by a average of 32.4 points while laying an average of 12.8 points per game.

It’s right back to winning tonight with another 50-unit highroller play and I am quite confident I will again get the cash.

You can bet tonight’s game as if it is money in the bank and you can win it for just $25, charged to your major credit card or to your Pay Pal account.

A season’s membership in my Personal Best Basketball Investment Club for highrollers is available for just $999 and keep in mind that also entitles you to a free membership in my Chairman’s Club  ($449 value) that will give you 5-6 additional 25-unit plays each week.

I will stop right here and let my record do the rest of the talking.

15-4 With 50-Unit College Basketball Winners
An Amazing 79% Winners

12/13… 50 Units… Eastern Washington (-3) 88, Morehead State 86 (OT) (Lost)
12/10… 50 Units… IPFW (-13½) 98, Austin Peay 58 (Won)
12/8… 50 Units… Middle Tennessee (-2) 71, Vanderbilt 48 (Won)
12/7… 50 Units… Kent State (-9½) 100, Niagara 72 (Won)
12/6… 50 Units… Wichita State (-26) 75, Saint Louis 45 (Won)
12/3… 50 Units… Kansas State (-13) 84, Saint Louis 53 (Won)
11/30… 50 Units… DePaul (-8½) 77, Drake 75 (Lost)
11/29… 50 Units… Tenn-Martin (-4½) 82, Florida Atlantic 81 (Lost)
11/28… 50 Units… Kentucky (-16½) 115, Arizona State 67 (Won)
11/26… 50 Units… E. Washington (-2½) 85, Denver 80 (Won)
11/25… 50 Units… Nevada (-5½) 67, Buffalo 62 (Lost)
11/23… 50 Units… Texas Tech (-7) 75, Utah State 51 (Won)
11/22… 50 Units… SMU (-19) 84, Cal-Santa Barbara 57 (Won)
11/21… 50 Units… Houston (-12) 95, George Mason 56 (Won)
11/20… 50 Units… Grand Canyon (-7) 84, Marist 72 (Won)
11/19… 50 Units… Belmont (-7½) 90, Western Kentucky 69 (Won)
11/17… 50 Units… SMU (-5) 76, Pittsburgh 67 (Won)
11/15… 50 Units… Fairfield (-1½) 79, Dartmouth 62 (Won)
11/11… 50 Units… Tenn-Chattanooga (+3½) 82, Tennessee 69 (Won)

Two Favorites And A Dog Produce 3-0 Best Bets Club Night
Two College Basketball Favorites And One Underdog Stunner Set To Win In Dominating Fashion Tonight

The college basketball schedule is still quite limited because of a pause for players to take their final first semester exams but the winners are still out there – and I am going for three of them tonight with two solid favorites and an underdog that should win straight up.

In the graphs I use to chart just where teams are in their performance profiles all three of tonight’s releases are (1) ready to play their best games of the season and (2) have the ability to dominate their opponents.

You can win these 10-unit Best Bets Basketball Club college plays for just $15, charged to your major credit card or to your Pay Pal account. Better yet, get on board for the entire college and NBA seasons for just $190, charged to your major credit card.

Chairman’s Club NBA Game Of Week Wins Tonight

Everything Is In Place For One NBA Team To Win And Cover In Powerful Fashion Tonight And It Is My 25-Unit Chairman’s Club Game Of The Week

My Chairman’s Basketball Investment Club is having a very decent season with its 25-unit NBA plays and tonight goes for the cash with another game of the week winner. The team I am releasing is playing well, is in the right spot to get the money and should do just that with a powerful win and cover.

You can win my Chairman’s Club 25-unit Game of the Week tonight for just $20, charged to your major credit card or to your Pay Pal account. Don’t miss it.

Join the discussion


Forgot password

Keep me logged in