Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, April 13, 2012 at 12:04 PM
Sometimes you can’t believe your own eyes. And, that’s probably true more right now in the NBA than at any other time…in any other sport…in the history of sports wagering. If you’re a proponent of Advanced Handicapping strategies, then you must realize that much of what’s happening in the NBA right now has a chance to trick you badly once the playoffs start.
*There are HOT teams who may be getting rich at the expense of bad teams. One of the many problems of tanking in the NBA is that it can create illusions about teams who beat up on the tankers. In the playoffs, there are no tankers. And, it doesn’t matter if you ended the season with a flourish if that flourish was solely the result of beating up on teams who weren’t trying.
*There are COLD teams headed for the playoffs who may just be biding their time right now in hopes of being fresh and healthy when the games matter for real. It doesn’t matter if you ended the season in a perceived slump if you were coasting ON PURPOSE to save yourselves for later action.
*There are potential budding stars that the media’s fallen in love with who may be in for a rude awakening once things get physical in the postseason.
*There are proven stars getting some bad press because it looks lately like they’ve lost their playmaking and gamebreaking abilities in “clutch” situations.
I’m telling you fans…you can’t believe everything you see on the scoreboard right now…you can’t believe everything you see in the boxscores right now…and you can’t even believe your own eyes! So many bad teams are tanking, and so many good teams are holding something back, that the league may be 70% to 80% illusion right now.
How does an Advanced Handicapper pick winners at a time like this? How does one properly prepare for the playoffs?
The key to me is using a bigger sample size to draw conclusions.
*There are star players in this league who are known quantities. They’re going to be there in the playoffs. Don’t worry if they’re not on fire in the first two weeks of April. Don’t assume somebody’s “lost it” or is too injured to star next month just because they’re not hitting on all cylinders now.
*The potential up-and-comers who are getting hyped may well be the real deal. Don’t assume that’s true until you see it in the playoffs. We saw some of this with Jeremy Lin awhile back. He posted some great numbers vs. bad, tired teams, and he was suddenly getting compared to Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson. Guys on the highlight reels may not matter in a couple of weeks, even if they look like breakthrough stars at the moment.
*In terms of stats, trends, and angles, I just wouldn’t put any weight on current results unless you know for sure that both teams in a game were trying as hard as they could to win while they were at full strength. How often can you say that about ANY game right now? The Miami-Chicago game Thursday Night (a winner for myself and my clients) was played at peak intensity. But, Chicago wasn’t at full strength because Derrick Rose was hobbled (and horrible). San Antonio survived last year’s nemesis Memphis on the same night, but Tony Allen was out for the Grizzlies.
It should be obvious that you need to be very careful right now in the NBA. It’s not a time to be action heavy. It’s not a time to be unit-heavy except in those very special circumstances where the stars align with a fresh, healthy team that’s trying to post a big result against a struggling, tired team that doesn’t really care. You must always remember that among the fundamentals of Advanced Handicapping are recognizing when to attack, and when to pull back. So many of you reading this have had troubles in the past, I’m sure, with betting too many games when you should have been conservative…then betting too lightly when you really had a significant edge. It’s vital that you get it right in the current NBA environment.
I’m very confident in the NBA right now because I’m only releasing the very best options on the board. You can purchase those plays right here at this website, along with my top baseball selections. I greatly appreciate that so many of you are learning and utilizing my principles of Advanced Handicapping. For those of you who aren’t ready to step out on your own yet, my guidance is always just a few mouse clicks away.
I’ll be back again early next week for my next installment in the College of Advanced Handicapping. I may focus on baseball in both reports next week because our attention will be very much focused on the NBA once the playoffs get started. It’s great to have TWO big time sports to attack every night. And, it’s great to have so many of you collecting alongside me at the pay windows here in Las Vegas.