Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, October 3, 2016 at 3:01 PM
Underdog Rams (+10.5) Upset Cardinals 17-13 In 50-Unit NFL Game Of Week
Vikings -4 over Giants In Monday Night Football But Please Note They Are 0-6 In Last Six Monday Night Games
Cubs 9-5 Favorites To Win World Series As Playoffs Begin Tuesday Night With Blue Jays At Orioles
Vegas Bookmakers Had Field Day Sunday But Not With My Clients Who Went 4-1
By Kelso Sturgeon
There is an old saying among the football betting gentry that states to be successful one must “outrun the numbers”. Outrunning the numbers and beating one’s bookmaker requires several things but most important of all is to pay enough attention to what is actually transpiring on the playing field. Those making betting lines are sometimes as out of touch with reality as most bettors.
That is why a team such as Eastern Michigan that won but seven games the past two seasons can start off 4-1 straight up (SU) and be 4-1 against the spread (ATS). That is why Troy, winner of my 50-unit College Game of the Week, can be 4-1 SU and ATS. Nobody behind the counter is paying attention. These teams have a long history of being mediocre at best and at worst simply uncompetitive and regardless of their current success (for instance Troy lost at Clemson, 30-24, as a 35-point underdog).
Among the power schools Colorado leads the way in the world of lack of respect. The Buffaloes have not had a winning in the decade and because of that have disappeared from the bookmaking radar. This means those sharp enough to see what is going have made a fortune betting on Colorado, which is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS.
There must be something there—something quite ignored.
On the other side of the coin we have national powers who are failing in dramatic fashion, yet they continue to be favorites. For instance Arizona is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS; Boise State is 4-0 SU and 1-3 ATS; Michigan State is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. And this is to name just a few teams where one can win betting on or against them as long as bookmakers live in the past.
That bettors are not outrunning the numbers was quite obvious at my Las Vegas sports book Sunday evening. When I stopped by to cash in my winning tickets, the place was empty and the hum of excitement non-existent. This scenario was far removed from most Sundays, when the bettors hang around to bet the night game.
“Where is everybody?”, I asked. “Went broke, went home,” a clerk said, adding “I have never seen this many losers on a Sunday. Even the wise-guys went down.”
Rams Perfection Example Of Outrunning Numbers
There was no better example of a game in which outrunning the numbers was in play more than in the Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals contest. Arizona, which had proved nothing in its first three games while playing in the universe of mediocrity, was a 10.5-point favorite over the Rams, which arrived in Glendale having in their last two games beaten Seattle, 9-3, and Tampa Bay 37-32.
How in heaven’s name could the Cardinals be a 10-5-point favorite in this one. And a 50-unit Game of the Week winner was launched.
Ditto for the Carolina Panthers at the Atlanta Falcons contest. The Panthers were 1-2 and one the strength’s Super Bowl appearance made a 2.5-point favorite over Atlanta in spite of the fact quarterback Cam Newton was so far off form he could hit the broad side of a barn with a handful of rocks. Meantime, the Falcons had put together an offense that just might be Super Bowl bound.
In both cases those making betting lines joined bettors living in the past and made one favorite a the Cardinals a ridiculous price and had the wrong side favored in the Carolina-Atlanta gave in which I took the Falcons as a 25-unit play and won, 48-33.
Outrunning the numbers is a basic requirement for winning. Look for the spots where bookmakers are ignoring teams because they have a losing past or failing to realize some power teams from the past are no such animals this season.
Saturday/Sunday Football Record
Sunday In NFL
50 Units…Rams (+10) 17, Cardinals 13 (Won)
25 Units…Falcons (+2.5) 48, Panthers 33 (Won)
15 Units…Chiefs (+3) 14, Steelers 43 (Lost)
10 Units…Bills (+3.5) 16, Patriots 0 (Won)
10 Units…Cowboys (-1) 24, 49ers 17 (Won)
Saturday In Colleges
50 Units…Troy (-15) 34, Idaho 13 (Won)
25 Units…Minnesota (+3.5) 26, Penn State 29 (Won)
25 Units…Kansas State (+2.5) 16, West Virginia 17 Won)
25 Units…Wisconsin (+11.5) 7, Michigan 14 (Won)
25 Units…Louisville (-1) 36, Clemson 42 (Lost)
15 Units…Navy (+7) 14, Air Force 28 (Lost)
10 Units…Virginia (+4) 34, Duke 20 (Won)
10 Units…Miami-OH (+2.5) 7, Ohio 17 (Lost)
Cubs 9-5 To Win It All
The Major League Baseball post-season begins Tuesday night when the Baltimore Orioles (89-73) host the Toronto Blue Jays (89-83) on national television (TBS) with the first pitch to be thrown at 8:05 Eastern. Team managers had not named their starters when this was written. I have had a successful baseball season and know the winning will continue right through the World Series. You can get my daily selections for just $10, or sign up for my playoff package and save a fortune. Sign up on this website or toll free at 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards accepted.
Odds To Win World Series
(Odds From Westgate Super Book Las Vegas)
|TEAM||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|BOSTON RED SOX||18-1||6-1|
|LOS ANGELES DODGERS||8-1||6-1|
|NEW YORK METS||10-1||20-1|
|SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS||20-1||30-1|
|TORONTO BLUE JAYS||10-1||14-1|
Can Vikings Make It To 4-0 Against Giants Tonight?
Undefeated Minnesota Is Solid 4-Point Favorite But Has To Be Haunted By Fact It Is 0-6 In Last 6 Monday Night Games
I had another knockout NFL Sunday, going 4-1 and with the wins including another powerful 50-Unit Game of the Week victor as the Los Angeles Rams (+10) took down the Arizona Cardinals, 17-13. The winning should continue tonight with the nationally-televised (ESPN) New York Giants (2-1) at the Minnesota Vikings (3-0), a game I am releasing as a 25-unit play.
The Vikings certainly deserve to be the favorite in this spot but they also have to be looking over their should t the fact they stand 0-6 in their last six Monday night games.
The betting line makes this a dead-even affair and it takes a lot of reading between the lines to come up with the winner—and I have done just that and am confident I will get the cash in this spot. The winning continues tonight and you can win this 25-unit play with me for just $25, charged to your major credit card.