Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, August 11, 2016 at 11:57 AM
Nationally Televised (CBS) Jaguars At Jets Highlights 2-0 Opening Night For The NFL Preseason
Elephant In Room Is Fear Of Injuries To Key Players Before Regular Season Begins And That Will Determine The Outcome Of Many Week #1-#2 Games
By Kelso Sturgeon
In the world of the NFL preseason there is but one elephant in the room - the fear of injury to any number of players who will make or break the season for their teams. It is something often mentioned but seldom discussed. Just hold your breath and hope.
The injury factor is the one thing that makes betting the preseason so challenging, because even in the exhibition season of August football cannot be played at half speed. Veterans must go all out at full speed - rookies and newcomers even more so. The risk of serious injury is always present.
This means handicappers must as best as possible determine which starters will see action in a game and whether it will be for a series or two, or a quarter or two.
This is why the first two weeks of the preseason are the most difficult to handicap. We know in Week #3, the starters will get extended playing time while in Week #4 they will play a series or two and then sit to avoid any ding or injury that will have them less than ready for Game #1 of the regular season.
While all of this is true, the NFL preseason still remains a major profit center for bettors who understand what it's all about and who then search for the information that helps one deal with the increased risk factor and still beat the number.
For instance some of the things we know about the Thursday night games...
- Starting Baltimore QB Joe Flacco will not play tonight against Carolina and that means back-up Ryan Mallett, a 6-year veteran, will start before giving away early to a pair of journeymen, Jarrod Johnson and Josh Johnson.
- With Peyton Manning gone and his back-up Brock Osweiler now at Houston, veteran Mark Sanchez will start and play the first quarter against the Chicago Bears. His backup, Trevor Siemian, a second-year player out of Northwestern, will play the second period, with rookie Paxton Lynch (Memphis) playing the entire second half.
Just knowing things such as this is at least the beginning of the handicapping process.
As most know I take the NFL pre-season quite seriously and have used it as a major profit center for the past several years. In last year's pre-season I won my 100-unit Pre-Season Game of the Year (Denver +2.5 with its 14-10 win over the Houston Texans), my 50-unit Pre-Season Upset Game of the Year (Green Bay +2.5 over New England, 22-11) and my 50-unit Pre-Season Blowout Game of the Year (Vikings -3.5 over Tampa Bay 26-16) and I am confident I will win them all again this time around.
Information Wins In NFL Preseason And What I Know About Nationally Televised Jaguars-Jets Game Should Help Put Us In Winner's Circle Twice
As noted it is quite a challenge to beat the NFL preseason because of all the hidden factors that will in the end determine the pointspread winner. But, if you know a team's game plan, its injuries to key players who will not play and a coach's intent the winners are there.
For instance, this past Sunday I released the Indianapolis Colts as a 10-unit play over the Green Bay Packers and even though the game was cancelled what I knew all but determined the winner. Here is what I had to say in writing up the game.
"All the wiseguy money is on the Colts and is responsible for driving the game from a pick'em to where it is now. The Colts will play their healthy starters for a while. Green Bay comes into the game on a tell-tale extremely cautious note and will not use starting QB Aaron Rodgers or his back-up Brett Hundley. This means Green Bay's offense will be run by rookie quarterbacks Joe Callahan, an undrafted free agent from Division III Wesley College, and and Marquise Williams, an undrafted free agent from North Carolina. Do the math."
It is information such as this that wins preseason games and I have a ton of hidden information on tonight's Jacksonville at New York Jets game that should put us in the winner's circle. Win this 10-unit play, plus a second game, for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
Better yet, I will give you the entire NFL pre-season FREE when you sign up for membership in my Best Bets Football Club for the 2016 college and NFL seasons.
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- The entire NFL pre-season free.
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Thursday Night Schedule
(Last Year's Records I Parenthesis)
Washington Redskins (9-7) at Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) at New York Jets (10-6)
Carolina Panthers (14-1) at Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
New Orleans Saints (7-9) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Denver Broncos (12-4) at Chicago Bears (6-10)