Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, July 27, 2016 at 12:04 PM
Step Aside, Alabama, And Make Way For Clemson Tigers Who Are Set To Win 2016 National Championship. This Teams Offense Is Unstoppable
Vegas Bookmakers Tell The World Just How Valuable Patriots QB Tom Brady Is To Team - Number Will Shock You
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By Kelso Sturgeon
Handicapping each new football season - and the 2016 edition is now here - always begins with the numbers. What do bookmakers and the betting public think about the chances of each college and National Football League team to win championships? The foundation is right there before us in black and white and among its disclosures is the fact Alabama is the 5-1 favorite to repeat as the champion of college football and the New England Patriots are the 13-2 choices to win another Super Bowl.
Agree or disagree these numbers kick off the handicapping process that will hopefully lead to a winning season. The first hazard one faces is the terribly foolish habit of staying in lockstep with tradition. When wasn't Alabama the favorite to win it all? When was the last time New England was not one of the top choices to win another Super Bowl?
Despite the bad habits of bookmakers and the betting public, the numbers challenge one to determine if they are right or wrong but one must never forget they do represent the collective opinion of very sharp people. In many cases consensus is quite accurate and in numerous others quite wrong.
As one who has been handicapping the coming football season for more than two months I already have several numbers I have found wrong.
As for New England bettors must remember the Patriots will be without quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the season - against Arizona, Miami, Houston and Buffalo - as he serves a ridiculous and vindictive four-day suspension from something labeled deflatgate. His replacement will be 3rd-year veteran Jimmy Garppolo (Eastern Illinois - the same school that gave the NFL Tony Romo) who has never started an NFL game.
The impact of Brady's suspension was real. The advance line on the Patriots opener at Arizona was a solid "pick'em" but when the suspension was announced the number immediately, in one jump, moved to he Cardinals -5.5. Brady obviously means a lot to New England.
New England needs to win at least three of those four games and find itself playing catch-up all season, making the Pats quite a risky choice to reach the Super Bowl
Clemson - Not 'Bama - Is Best Team In College Football
While Alabama has won four of the past six national championship it will play second fiddle, at best, to the 8-1 Clemson Tigers, a team they beat, 45-40, to win last year's title. This is no knock on Alabama, a team to which I have a long attachment dating back to the days of Bear Bryant, but this season should give the Tigers from Death Valley their second national championship, something last won in 1981, when Danny Ford was in charge.
One could write a book on why Clemson should win it all, but I shall just point out two things.
- Clemson will field an unstoppable offense led by junior quarterback Deshaun Watson who is the first player in Division 1 history to pass for more than 4,000 yards and rush for more than 1,000 yards in a single season. Joining him on that side of the ball will be junior running back Wayne Gallman who rushed for 1,527 yards and 13 TDs last season, along with a host of game-breaking wide receivers and one of the best offensive lines in the game. Clemson went 14-0 last season, faces a similar docket this season and the only game in which it might not be favored will be at FSU.
- Everyone knows the true and few true power teams of college football just reload each season, plugging in players at any position vacated by those who graduated or moved on. Alabama will be in he reload mode this time around, having to replace its quarterback, it's top two running backs and most of its defensive front. And the schedule is a killer, with an opening game against USC and road games at Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU and it could lose them all.
I will certainly write more on this subject at a later time, but it is my suggestion bettors buy all they can afford of that 8-1 on Clemson.
College Football Betting Lines - Week #1
Last Year's Record In Parenthesis - Home Team In CAPS
Friday, August 26
California (8-5) -22.5 over Hawaii (3-10) (Played in Sydney, Australia)
Thursday, Sept. 1
Indiana (6-7) -8 at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (5-7)
LOUISVILLE (8-5) -38.5 vs. Charlotte (2-10)
WAKE FOREST (3-9) -18 vs. Tulane (3-9)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (12-2) -14.5 vs. Rice (5-7)
VANDERBILT (4-8) -3 vs. South Carolina (3-9)
MINNESOTA (6-7) -20 vs. Oregon State (2-10)\\
TENNESSEE (9-4) -22.5 vs. Appalachian State (11-2)
Friday, Sept. 2
GEORGIA STATE (6-7) -3 vs. Ball State (3-9)
TEMPLE (10-4) -16.5 vs. Army (2-10)
Colorado (4-9) -9 vs. Colorado State (7-6) (Played in Denver)
STANFORD (12-1) -16 vs Kansas State (6-7)
Saturday, Sept. 3
Georgia Tech (3-9) vs. Boston College (3-9) (Played in Dublin, Ireland)
MICHIGAN (10-3) vs. Hawaii (3-10)
IOWA (12-2) -28.5 vs. Miami-Ohio (3-9)
NORTHWESTERN (10-3) -6.5 vs. Western Michigan (8-5)
OHIO STATE (12-1) -27.5 vs. Bowling Green (10-4)
PENN STATE (7-6) -18.5 vs. Kent State (3-9)
WEST VIRGINIA (8-5) -10.5 vs. Missouri (5-7)
SMU (2-10) -at NORTH TEXAS (1-11)
MISSISSIPPI STATE (9-4) -33.5 vs. South Alabama (5-7)
OHIO (8-5) -21 vs. Texas State (3-9)
KENTUCKY (5-7) -7 vs Southern Miss (9-5)
ARKANSAS (8-5) -22 vs. Louisiana Tech (9-4)
ARKANSAS STATE (9-4) -3.5 vs. Toledo (10-2)
FLORIDA (10-4) -36.5 vs. Massachusetts (3-9)
Clemson (14-1) -7.5 at AUBURN (7-6)
TEXAS A&M (8-5) -2 vs. UCLA
TULSA (6-7) -5.5 over San Jose State (6-7)
WASHINGTON (7-6) -24 vs. Rutgers (4-8)
LSU (9-3) -9.5 at WISCONSIN (10-3) (Played in Green Bay, WI)
GEORGIA (10-3) -3 vs. North Carolina (11-3) (Played at Georgia Dome, Atlanta)
Oklahoma (11-2) -10 at HOUSTON (13-1) (Played at NGR Stadium, Houston)
NEBRASKA (6-7) -29.5 vs. Fresno State (3-9)
Alabama (14-1) -10 vs Southern California (8-6) (Played in Arlington, TX)
Boise State (9-4) -19 at LOUISIANA (4-8)
ARIZONA (7-6) Pick'em vs. BYU (9-4) (Played in Glendale, AZ)
Northern Illinois (8-6) -10 at Wyoming (2-10)
Sunday, Sept. 4
Notre Dame (10-3) -4.5 at TEXAS (5-7)
Monday, Sept. 5
FLORIDA STATE (10-3) -6.5 vs. Ole Miss (10-3) (Played in Orlando, FL)
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And that gives you 2-3 top-rated college plays every Saturday and 2-3 top plays every Sunday - plus Mondays and Thursdays - if the games measure up.
And I target the most winnable games at 5, 10, and 15 units so you know where to get the biggest profits with winning games like these:
9/3 - 15 Units...Utah (-4.5) 24, Michigan 17
Utah one of most under-rated teams in country. Had dramatic talent edge
9/12 - 15 Units...BYU (+2 ½) 35, Boise State 24
BYU wants revenge from 20-point loss in '14 and has the personnel to do it
9/12 - 10 Units...Michigan (-13½) 35, Oregon State 7
After loss to Utah, new coach Harbaugh takes no prisoners vs. hapless OSU
9/13 - 15 Units...Cardinals (-2) 31, Saints 19
Cards looked outstanding in preseason practice
9/13 - 10 Units...Packers (-6) 31, Bears 23
Bears doomed by weak offense/defense
9/18 - 15 Units...Florida State (-9.5) 14, Boston College 0
BC has absolutely no offense and can't beat FSU on defense alone
9/19- 10 Units...Rice (-7) 38, North Texas 24
After loss to Texas, Rice finds a patsy they can dominate in woeful NTSU
9/20 - 15 Units...Packers (-3) 27, Seahawks 17
Big revenge game for Packers who are hard to beat at Lambeau
9/27 - 15 Units...Broncos (-3) 24, Lions 12
Broncos finally figured out Manning is the MAN
9/27 - 10 Units...Steelers (+1.5) 12, Rams 6
Steelers get RB Bell back from suspension for this and that's winning edge
9/27 - 5 Units...Cardinals (-7) 47, 49ers 7
Cardinals have talent to make Super Bowl and 49ers just terrible
10/2 - 15 Units...East Carolina (-6) 49, SMU 25
Pirates will roll up the score vs. Mustangs' pitiful defense
10/4 - 15 Units...Vikings (+7) 20, Broncos 23
Vikings running game takes this one right to the money
10/4 - 10 Units... Panthers (-3) 37, Bucs 23
Panthers defense will dominate in this one, bury rookie QB
MY PRE-SEASON GAMES ARE YOURS FREE.
Last year I went 14-7 - and won all 3 of my top plays
100-Unit NFL Pre-Season Game of the Year: Broncos (+2½) Texans 14-10 W
50-Unit NFL Pre-Season Upset Game of the Year: Packers (+2½) Pats 22-11 W
50-Unit NFL Pre-Season Blowout Game of the Year: Vikings (-3½) Buccaneers 26-16 W
I also WON the Hall of Fame Game To Kick off the season: Vikings (-3) Steelers 14-3 W
Catch as many of these games as you can and use your profits to beat the man with his own money. It's a good time to bet. Vegas isn't up on all the changes, so their lines are tentative. I am wired into the NFL, I know the people and the game plans so I win big every August setting us up nicely for early September games like these:
Thursday, Sept 1: 25 Units: South Carolina at Vanderbilt (ESPN)
Both SEC Teams improved and fighting for respect
Friday, Sept 2: 25 Units: Kansas State at Stanford (FS1)
Stanford big favorite but K-State always dangerous
Saturday, Sept 3: 200 Unit College Blowout Kickoff Classic
I have owned this one for the past decade including last year with NC State (-26) Troy 49-21
PLUS USC vs. Alabama from Arlington, TX (ABC)
'Bama is a solid 10-point favorite, but both of these teams really want this one
Sunday, Sept 4: No NFL yet but...Cash My 50 Unit Sunday College Slam: Notre Dame at Texas (ABC)
Irish are the favored, but folks say Longhorns are one of most improved teams in country
Monday, Sept 5: Labor Day Moneymaker - 15 Units: Ole Miss vs. Florida State (ESPN)
This one is big showdown ACC vs. SEC and should be one of Best Games of the Year
Thursday, Sept 8: NFL KICKOFF! Panthers (-2) at Broncos NBC
This Super Bowl Rematch has Panthers looking for revenge and respect... Manning is gone but Broncos defense returns
Saturday Sept 10 - 50-unit College Game of the Month
Sunday, Sept 11: 50-Unit NFL Opening Sunday Game of the Week
Won easily last year with Bengals (-3) Raiders 33-13!
Monday, September 12: Get all the Money with this Doubleheader!
Steelers (-3) at Redskins (ESPN)
After making playoffs last year, both want more
LA Rams (-2) at 49ers (ESPN)
An old rivalry with new determination!
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