Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, July 20, 2016 at 1:15 PM
Time To Go To Work And Get Ready For Coming Football Season
NFL Rookies Report Today, Veterans In One Week - Colleges Begin Practice In 11 Days On August 1
Here Is A Plan To Get Up Top Speed And Bury You Bookmaker Early Before He Figures Out You Are Smarter That He Is
Membership In My Best Bets Football Club For Entire Season Just $245 And Includes Entire NFL Pre-Season Free
By Kelso Sturgeon
It is time to go to work. National Football League teams start welcoming rookies to camp today, with veterans set to arrive no later than July 28. College football teams report in 11 days. For all involved it will be weeks of heat and hell with each individual pushed to their physical and mental limits as teams put the finishing touches and polish on the teams they will field this season.
Bettors will again receive daily reports from each NFL training camp and will be able to use that knowledge to form their own opinions. It will be much more difficult to get a line on the colleges which report August 1.
The first step in analyzing the 128 college is to save time by leaving the obvious until last. There is no dispute Alabama which went 14-1 last season in winning is fourth national championship in the past six seasons will again be outstanding. With the Crimson Tide, the 6-1 favorite to win it all again, there is little reason to study the obvious when winning edges will be found with many other teams.
One can say the same thing about Clemson (14-1), which lost to Alabama, 45-40, in last year's championship game. Ditto for the likes of Ohio State (12-1), Oklahoma (11-2), Florida State (10-3), Stanford (12-2) and Michigan State (12-2). They will all win again and the only question concerning their/our success with them is whether the cover the number.
For the record, Alabama is 97-12 straight up (SU) over the past eight seasons, 37-5 over the past three years but just 20-22 against the spread (ATS) in 2013-2015. In other words, the Tide wins but is quite average in covering the number. It is just as easy to lose that win with them.
That situation exists for almost all traditional powers with big public followings. Most of these teams are on national television each week, bookmakers know they are going to attract far more people betting on them than against them, meaning betting lines are on them are inflated in order to attract the more sophisticated bettors on their opponents, who consider the extra 1-3 points they are getting a big edge.
In going to the lesser-backed teams early in the process, college handicappers need to find out five basic things:
- Just how good is a team's quarterback?
- How experienced is a team's offensive line?
- Does it have a game-breaking offensive players?
- How does the defense stack up in terms of experience and returning players?
- Does the coach have a record of winning consistently, especially early in the season?
This is just the beginning of the process and with 160 college and NFL teams to analyze and rate, the time to begin the process is right now.
After you have collected all the information on each of the 160 teams, turn you focus to the 128 college teams on 128 college teams that will be on the board this season and start asking a series of questions, such as:
- Does a team have all the elements to play at a high level for the entire 12-game season. Few do. We know Alabama can go the distance but we must decide about such prominent teams as independent power BYU (9-4 last season) which in its first eight games faces Arizona, Utah, West Virginia, Toledo, Michigan State, Mississippi State and Boise State. If one determines there is no way the Cougars can go the distance, the only question is at what point will they fall apart?
- What about teams such as Navy and Kansas State, who it seems regardless of the five factors listed above seem to always find a way to win. Navy went 11-2 last season and in the process buried Pittsburgh, 44-28, in the Military Bowl. The Midshipmen have recorded winning records capped by bowl berths in 12 of the last 13 years. Kansas State's record is just as good. There are more teams such as these who just seem to win, period.
- How improved are individual teams from last year? Unlike the NFL, where talent levels are basically the same on each of the 32 teams, college teams change dramatically from season to season as the personnel changes.
These are just three examples of things college football bettors need to determine if they intend to open the season better prepared than their bookmakers and position themselves to outrun the numbers for at least the first month of the season and maybe even longer. Some season it takes bookmakers an unusual amount of time to wake up. That is the reason a traditionally dreadful Army team (2-10) opened the season 1-4 SU and 4-1 ATS. At the other end of the spectrum, Auburn, a traditional power team, went 3-2 SU and 0-5 ATS in its first five games.
Those prepared can strike early and win.
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And that gives you 2-3 top-rated college plays every Saturday and 2-3 top plays every Sunday - plus Mondays and Thursdays - if the games measure up.
And I target the most winnable games at 5, 10, and 15 units so you know where to get the biggest profits with winning games like these:
9/3 - 15 Units...Utah (-4.5) 24, Michigan 17
Utah one of most under-rated teams in country. Had dramatic talent edge
9/12 - 15 Units...BYU (+2 ½) 35, Boise State 24
BYU wants revenge from 20-point loss in '14 and has the personnel to do it
9/12 - 10 Units...Michigan (-13½) 35, Oregon State 7
After loss to Utah, new coach Harbaugh takes no prisoners vs. hapless OSU
9/13 - 15 Units...Cardinals (-2) 31, Saints 19
Cards looked outstanding in preseason practice
9/13 - 10 Units...Packers (-6) 31, Bears 23
Bears doomed by weak offense/defense
9/18 - 15 Units...Florida State (-9.5) 14, Boston College 0
BC has absolutely no offense and can't beat FSU on defense alone
9/19- 10 Units...Rice (-7) 38, North Texas 24
After loss to Texas, Rice finds a patsy they can dominate in woeful NTSU
9/20 - 15 Units...Packers (-3) 27, Seahawks 17
Big revenge game for Packers who are hard to beat at Lambeau
9/27 - 15 Units...Broncos (-3) 24, Lions 12
Broncos finally figured out Manning is the MAN
9/27 - 10 Units...Steelers (+1.5) 12, Rams 6
Steelers get RB Bell back from suspension for this and that's winning edge
9/27 - 5 Units...Cardinals (-7) 47, 49ers 7
Cardinals have talent to make Super Bowl and 49ers just terrible
10/2 - 15 Units...East Carolina (-6) 49, SMU 25
Pirates will roll up the score vs. Mustangs' pitiful defense
10/4 - 15 Units...Vikings (+7) 20, Broncos 23
Vikings running game takes this one right to the money
10/4 - 10 Units... Panthers (-3) 37, Bucs 23
Panthers defense will dominate in this one, bury rookie QB
MY PRE-SEASON GAMES ARE YOURS FREE.
Last year I went 14-7 - and won all 3 of my top plays
100-Unit NFL Pre-Season Game of the Year: Broncos (+2½) Texans 14-10 W
50-Unit NFL Pre-Season Upset Game of the Year: Packers (+2½) Pats 22-11 W
50-Unit NFL Pre-Season Blowout Game of the Year: Vikings (-3½) Buccaneers 26-16 W
I also WON the Hall of Fame Game To Kick off the season: Vikings (-3) Steelers 14-3 W
Catch as many of these games as you can and use your profits to beat the man with his own money. It's a good time to bet. Vegas isn't up on all the changes, so their lines are tentative. I am wired into the NFL, I know the people and the game plans so I win big every August setting us up nicely for early September games like these:
Thursday, Sept 1: 25 Units: South Carolina at Vanderbilt (ESPN)
Both SEC Teams improved and fighting for respect
Friday, Sept 2: 25 Units: Kansas State at Stanford (FS1)
Stanford big favorite but K-State always dangerous
Saturday, Sept 3: 200 Unit College Blowout Kickoff Classic
I have owned this one for the past decade including last year with NC State (-26) Troy 49-21
PLUS USC vs. Alabama from Arlington, TX (ABC)
'Bama is a solid 10-point favorite, but both of these teams really want this one
Sunday, Sept 4: No NFL yet but...Cash My 50 Unit Sunday College Slam: Notre Dame at Texas (ABC)
Irish are the favored, but folks say Longhorns are one of most improved teams in country
Monday, Sept 5: Labor Day Moneymaker - 15 Units: Ole Miss vs. Florida State (ESPN)
This one is big showdown ACC vs. SEC and should be one of Best Games of the Year
Thursday, Sept 8: NFL KICKOFF! Panthers (-2) at Broncos NBC
This Super Bowl Rematch has Panthers looking for revenge and respect... Manning is gone but Broncos defense returns
Saturday Sept 10 - 50-unit College Game of the Month
Sunday, Sept 11: 50-Unit NFL Opening Sunday Game of the Week
Won easily last year with Bengals (-3) Raiders 33-13!
Monday, September 12: Get all the Money with this Doubleheader!
Steelers (-3) at Redskins (ESPN)
After making playoffs last year, both want more
LA Rams (-2) at 49ers (ESPN)
An old rivalry with new determination!
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