Submitted by Wayne Root on Monday, March 14, 2016 at 7:00 AM
With the 2016 NCAA Tournament brackets now set, it’s obviously time for THE KING OF UPSETS WAYNE ALLYN ROOT to go about finding some Cinderella’s to take to the Big Dance. I’m not going to talk about specific teams here in a web article. That’s not fair to my paying clients! I will tell you about some of the general steps I take to find first round upsets.
*The first key to me is TALENT. Cinderella teams typically have a key player who can do something that’s hard to stop. Maybe it’s a guy who can relentlessly attack the basket. Maybe it’s a kid (or two) who can drain open looks from three-point range. I’ve emphasized for many years in these articles that the best UPSET choices can score points. I’m not looking for a “defensive dog” that might steal a coin flip. I want a team that’s going to score enough to get a lead and keep one. If an underdog you’re considering doesn’t have a high impact star, don’t imagine upset potential that isn’t there. Most ugly dogs this week are ugly for a reason. A few have been underrated by the markets, and you need to find them.
*Second, look for reasons that an underdog will play well RIGHT NOW. Maybe it’s a collection of seniors who realize this is their only chance EVER to do something big in March spotlight. Maybe it’s a team like Florida Gulf Coast awhile back who catches fire and keeps rolling until somebody stops them. Upsets involve teams who BELIEVE they can win because they’re playing for something bigger. That could because the head coach is in ill-health, or a key player suffered the loss of a loved one during the season. Research the team’s stories and look for motivational edges like these. You don’t want to bet on teams who are just happy to be in the brackets. You want to bet on teams who won’t be happy unless they make headlines with a win!
*Next, to call for an upset I want to fade an OVERRATED or OVERCONFIDENT favorite. It’s not enough to have a good underdog. To score the upset, you need a favorite who isn’t taking the game seriously enough. Maybe they just won their conference tournament and figure this first game will be easy. Maybe everyone’s picking them to go to the Sweet 16 and all the press attention goes to their heads. This year, actually, there are a lot of first round favorites who are far from sure things to excel on a neutral court vs. a fired up opponent. Great opportunities for smart bettors!
*Finally today, I want to talk about PACE. It’s much easier to score upsets vs. favorites who play SLOW basketball. That kind of team (remember Virginia was shocked early last year) can have trouble pulling away from inferior opponents if anything goes wrong. Or, if they fall behind, it’s harder to play catch up at a slow, meticulous pace. It’s much more difficult to upset a blow-and-go team of athletes because that kind of favorite can go on a 10-0 or 15-2 run with little notice. Plodding teams have trouble doing that. And, even if they do, it takes a long time!
I hope I haven’t tipped my hand too much already. Those four tips, two on either side of the ledger, should be enough to help you narrow things down to the best Cinderella options.
*Take dogs with a sense of purpose that have a dynamic offensive leader
*Fade overconfident or overrated favorites, particularly those who are below average in team pace
The worst thing you can do here is play hunches. Yeah, that works once every five years and you feel like a genius when it works. You probably still remember picking Lehigh over Duke because you haven’t called an upset since! Cinderella stories aren’t random. Realizing that decades ago is what allowed me to specialize in calling upsets. Don’t forget, I’m the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas. THE KING OF UPSETS is THE KING OF LAS VEGAS!
You can purchase my top daily releases from the NCAA’s and the NIT right here at the website with your credit card. Remember that the play-in games from Dayton will be Tuesday and Wednesday night! If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Call during normal business hours any day this week.
Back with you in a couple of days to talk more about the Big Dance. For many, this is the most exciting sports betting week of the calendar year. You surely know that Las Vegas sportsbooks are jam-packed from opening tip-off to final buzzer on every tournament day. That means it’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!