Submitted by Wayne Root on Monday, March 7, 2016 at 7:00 AM
There may be no better time ALL YEAR in ANY SPORT for picking UPSETS than the week that’s beginning as we speak. The major conference tournaments are RIPE for upsets because of the unique dynamics that are in play. It’s been true for years…and it should be especially true THIS season because so little separates the perceived powers from the teams just below them on the computer and market totem polls.
It’s not really a matter of “finding” upsets. They’re going to be happening all over the place in plain sight. The key for Las Vegas sports bettors is to make sure you find them all!
Why are upsets so common? Here are a few of the main reasons…
*First, the best teams in the nation just aren’t breathing fire this week. They’re saving that for NEXT week when the Big Dance begins. Everybody wants to win the National Championship. Everybody wants their “shining moment” under the national spotlight in front of a roaring crowd. Winning a conference tournament against teams you’ve already beaten just isn’t as exciting. The coaches do their best to motivate players (though, some are actually happy with losses because it gets their players’ attention right before the Dance). It’s an annual occurrence. Teams who are supposed to be GREAT come out FLAT in their conference tournaments.
*Second, many of the second tier teams ARE fired up because they have a chance to make headlines and thrill their fans. And, this is particularly true if they’re playing one of the best teams in their league, or are playing with revenge from a recent conference loss. A lot of underdogs are going to perform like favorites! I have a history of exploiting motivational mismatches in the major conference tournaments. You regulars know that’s my bread and butter.
*Third, there’s so much parity this year that many of these matchups are going to be “true pick-em’s” regardless of what the line says. Oddsmakers will price based on “perceptions” of the teams created by media hype or public bandwagons. Imagine for a moment that every game is a true pick-em but the line is +2 or +3. The straight up results will split out for underdogs 50/50, which means a lot of dogs will win straight up just by default. Many games are coin flips, but oddsmakers are giving you a bucket! It’s obviously not the case that “every” game is going to be like that. But, I’m confident the general theme will hold true.
*Fourth, many favorites have rosters built for the regular season, or the Big Dance, but aren’t well suited to play back-to-backs over at least three days. Teams with short rotations in particular will get tired in the second half of their semi-finals, and may not have any legs left at all if they reach the finals. A team that can win by an average of seven points on a Wednesday-Saturday-Wednesday rotation over eight days may be a completely different team when the challenge is a Thursday-Friday-Saturday gut-check gauntlet over just three days. The markets will price them like that 7-point team because computers play such a big role in the process these days. Sharp-eyed handicappers will recognize the impact of fatigue and correctly call for an “upset” that isn’t actually an upset at all.
*Finally, it’s virtually certain that COMBINATIONS of these factors are going to line up in the same game in a way that sets up PINNACLE quality selections. You’re going to get revenge-minded fired up underdogs facing flat favorites in early action. You’re going to get super-surgers with a chip on their shoulder in the semifinals or finals against favorites who run out of gas because of short rotations. And, this is all happening within a “parity party” that has overhyped team getting too much market respect anyway.
It’s a possible GOLD MINE!
I’m the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the Walk of Fame here in Las Vegas. That’s because I win year-round in all sports. A significant part of my reputation has been built in the month of March…as tournament basketball represents one of the most prominent sports betting “events” of the calendar year. Vegas comes alive for the Super Bowl…and for March Madness!
Win with THE KING OF LAS VEGAS starting tonight! You can purchase my top daily releases right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about value-priced packages that take you through the conference tournaments, the NIT, and the Big Dance.
I’ll see you again in the middle of the week to talk more basketball. We swept the Super Bowl with Denver and Under. We’re going to MARCH through this month’s basketball bonanza in dominating fashion as well. It’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!