Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, March 4, 2016 at 11:00 AM
Probably the single biggest factor for finding great college basketball bets over the final weekend of the regular season is to focus on teams to FADE. You can do that for value bets on decent underdogs against Dance caliber teams who are thinking about the postseason too early. But, really BIG bets can be made against “towel tossers” who have established they could care less about late season action.
These teams either:
*Have already given up on the season, and will bring no passion or intensity to proceedings as they just go through the motions until the clock runs out. (Note, these teams will also get routed in their conference tournament opener in a few days.)
*Have decided they should wait until their conference tournament to bring one last effort to salvage the season. They’ll just play out the string this weekend, before showing up with some passion next week.
For this kind of team…a non-contender in their conference that has no chance at a postseason tournament because of a losing record…there is literally NO reason to show up for the regular season finale! What’s the point? They probably already hate each other anyway. They’re sick of the head coach, having tuned him out weeks earlier. If the finale involves a road trip, they’re a lot more focused on having fun off the court away from home. A team like this is going to lose by at least 20 points…against a pointspread that will be much lower.
So, your homework here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping right now involves these steps…
*List all the teams in action who definitely WON’T be playing in the NCAA’s, NIT, or the other tournaments because they’ve had bad seasons. It’s very easy to find the standings of still-active conferences online. Start with teams who are at least two games below .500 in their conferences at the moment…and then really focus on teams who are at least eight games below .500.
*Study recent results from those particular teams to see which are in “pointspread slumps” that would signal having tossed in the towel already. Towel tossing can start as early as late January, and is often visible by Valentine’s. Bad teams in pointspread slumps have probably tossed the towel. (Important to note that not every bad team is in the tank. Some are trying as hard as they can, and have been playing well enough lately to create optimism about next year.)
*Narrow down the list of “pointspread slump” losers to the teams who are playing on the road, where it’s easier to no-show a game.
*Do your best on that short list to confirm which opposing favorites are likely to show up and play. Fading the towel-tossers by itself is a smart strategy that will make money. But, finding hosts enjoying an advantage in PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS as well as THE MOTIVATION FACTOR will create 50-unit, 100-unit, and possibly 200-unit plays if the stars align.
You might be thinking this is a lot of work for just a few days of games. Are you serious about becoming a winning Las Vegas bettor? Hard work pays for itself. And, in this case, all the work you’re doing this week with “towel tossers” will continue to pay off next week when many also lay down in their conference tournament openers. In fact…
*Losing teams who AREN’T “towel tossers” have a chance to play spoiler in their conference tournaments and cover some spreads. The fact that you knew enough about these teams to eliminate them from fade strategies this week will help you find some sleepers next week.
*Losing teams who have OBVIOUSLY tuned out their coach and mentally finished their seasons already will be blowout fodder next week in their first round games against opponents who are fighting to keep their seasons alive.
The homework I’ve given you will help you for DAYS, not just this weekend.
It’s vitally important that you really get in synch with the major college conferences right now. Square money is about to hit the board because many “mostly football” bettors start to come out of the woodwork for the tournaments. They love having day and night sessions. And, they love betting games that are on TV. Being informed will help you take advantage of bad Las Vegas pointspreads that have been influenced by dumb money.
As always, there’s an easy way out if you don’t have the time or energy to dive into our coursework. KELSO STURGEON’S daily selections can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters’ office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. Remember to ask about package rates that take you through the rest of March Madness…or the NBA Playoffs if you also like pro hoops.
See you again in a few days to talk more about handicapping the major conference tournaments. Some consider next week to be the most exciting college basketball stretch of the calendar year because you have so many motivated teams squaring off in dream matchups. Welcome back to those of you who have checked out since the Super Bowl. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is glad to see you’ve returned to class. Now, get to work!
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