Submitted by Wayne Root on Friday, February 26, 2016 at 4:00 PM
We all make mistakes. Even THE KING OF LAS VEGAS has games that don’t go his way. I think you’ll find it very helpful with your sports handicapping and betting if you can learn to focus on the kinds of mistakes that ODDSMAKERS make.
Right now, in these latter stages of the college basketball season, I believe these are the most important mistakes that oddsmakers are making.
*They’re still isn’t a full acknowledgement of parity in the sport this season. It was obvious early on that the elites weren’t all that much better than the next rung of “pretty good” teams. Yet, on a daily basis NOW, we still see these so-called elites losing games. Arizona just lost at Colorado (we talked about that possibility last time). It’s going to keep happening. There’s a “premium” being paid by bettors who want to invest in the traditional big-name programs. Oddsmakers have overshot the mark in trying to charge that premium. See if you can take advantage!
*They’re not adjusting quickly enough to in-season form. If a team has finally started clicking, it takes the market a few weeks to adjust (if it adjusts at all!). Some teams have really fallen part, yet are still being priced like they’re trying hard. One of the dangers of falling in love with Power Ratings (or just stealing somebody else’s computer ratings) is that you miss out on important developments. I’ve been taking advantage of this often, and am confident these edges will continue through these last few days of February and all of March.
*They’re not paying enough attention to challenging or easy schedule sequences. College kids get tired late in the season! If they have to play two games in three days, or do a lot of travelling in a short period of time, it shows up on the court. The man with more documented upset calls than anyone else in history LOVES fading tired favorites! I also like taking fresh underdogs who have had some time off, or who have just played a couple of home games. I probably won’t talk about this too much during the tournaments because I have to keep my cards close to my chest. I’ll tell you now that a big key to betting the tourneys is knowing which teams can handle demanding schedule stretches…and which teams are likely to fizzle from fatigue.
*They’re not thinking about how fired up certain teams are for certain opponents. That Arizona/Colorado game is a good example. Colorado is obviously going to get sky-high for a home game against somebody like Arizona. But, it’s just another game for the visiting Wildcats. You heard the Arizona coach complaining about how fans stormed the court afterward. Coach K does that for Duke too. The elites are like machines who go out and do their job. But, the rungs below that in college basketball feature teams who can play very well for 40 minutes when they’re at peak intensity with something to prove. And, it’s not always a “storm the court” game that gets this kind of intensity. It can be a revenge game. It can be more bad blood on one side of a rivalry than the other. Some great motivational mismatches will show up in minor conferences that the media largely ignores. If oddsmakers put those off-the-radar games on the board, YOU better not ignore them!
Summing up…be on the lookout for great DOG and even UPSET scenarios involving:
*Pretty good teams vs. overpriced elites
*Surging teams vs. fading teams
*Fresh teams vs. tired teams
*Motivated teams vs. “just doing their job” teams
Any of those categories will bear fruit. Sometimes, combinations will form where you get a fresh surging team against a tired fading team…or a “pretty good” team at peak motivation facing a “just doing their job” team that’s also tired from recent travel. Typically my PINNACLE plays will involve combinations.
Have you been making too many mistakes with your personal betting? I don’t win every game…but I do my best to get you the best plays on the board. You can purchase my top daily releases right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
See you again early next week for more basketball talk as we further prepare for the postseason challenges ahead. February is about to turn to March on your desk or refrigerator calendar. That means it’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!