Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Saturday, February 20, 2016 at 11:30 AM
100-Unit Bounce-Back Revenge College Basketball Game Of Month Should Win In Blowout Today
Kings (-4) Knockoff Nuggets 116-110 To Win 50-Unit NBA Game Of Month - Now 18-6 Past Month In Highroller Games
Oakland (+9) Covers In 86-84 Loss At Valparaiso To Push ATS Record To NCAA Best 20-5-1
By Kelso Sturgeon
No explanation necessary, thank you, it was all right there in the numbers. The almost unbeatable Golden State Warriors (48-5) who have won 91.0% of their games this season played their first game since the NBA All-Star break and got buried at Portland, by 32 points, 137-105, in a real shocker. Forget about it - that is what happens when an opponent hits 54.0% of its field goals, including 57.0% of its 3s (17-of-30).
This was the first of six straight road games for Golden State, with the Los Angeles Clippers (36-18) up tonight, followed by stops in Atlanta, Miami, Orlando and Oklahoma City. Golden State is -5 on the bounce in Los Angeles tonight.
It is obvious Portland was red-hot and played lights out Friday night and reality says the Trail Blazers won't play back to that game the rest of the season. In fact, off the performance against the Warriors will be life-and-death against Utah Sunday. Classify them as a major bounce downward candidate.
The lesson from the Golden State loss is the price bettors pay to bet on them. There is little doubt the Warriors have become America's team - maybe one of the best ever - and bookmakers have jacked up the betting lines on their games in order to attract balancing wagers on their opponents. That is a red flag for bettors.
A team can be absolutely the best in the NBA but there is no such "best" category when it comes to beating the line. Golden State is 31-22 (58.8%) against the number while, with the exception of the San Antonio Spurs who cover an NBA high of 61.8% of the time (34-21), the other 28 teams cover about 50.0% of the time.
Bookmakers are not dopes and they will not permit Golden State to break them. For the rest of the season, the Warriors are going to present the same risk vs. reward factor as do all the other teams. It is of note Golden State is 9-1 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games - and is 0-3 ATS in its last three when bettors had to lay -7.5 at Portland, -16 at Phoenix and -14 at home against Houston.
Let this serve as a red flag that while the Warriors are truly outstanding, bookmakers will cut them down to size and that means on most nights one will pay a premium of 2-3 points to bet on them.
By the way, may I remind you I won my 50-Unit NBA Game of the Week with the Sacramento Kings (-4) who beat the Denver Nuggets, 116-110, last night.
Oakland's 20-5-1 Spread Record Makes The Grizzlies Bettor's Best Friend
I am pleased to report my Chairman's Basketball Investment Club got the money with another underdog last night as Oakland (+9) got the cover in an 86-84 loss at Valparaiso. That cover pushed the Grizzlies spread record to a rather amazing 80.0%--20-5-1 against the number, proving once again a good team can come from anywhere.
Just in case you were not aware, Oakland University has 20,711 students and is located in Rochester, MI. The school began in 1959 as a branch of Michigan State and four years later broke off to become Oakland University, named after the county in which it resides.
Oakland (19-10) is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games and plays its next one Sunday at Illinois-Chicago (5-21).
Texas Tech, Texas Have Powerful Big 12 On Its Way To Sending 7 Teams To NCAA Tournament
The Big 12 Conference is rated by the RPI figures that rule college basketball as the best conference in the nation, edging out the PAC-12 for that honor, and it appears with the emergence of Texas Tech and Texas it will be sending seven teams to the NCAA Tournament.
It has been a given Kansas (22-4), Oklahoma (20-5), West Virginia (20-6), Baylor (18-7) and Iowa State (18-8) would be invited to the Big Dance and now the Red Raiders and Longhorns are in the process of punching their tickets. Both are performing at a very high level.
Texas has finally figured out the system of new head coach Shaka Smart, formerly of VCU, and stand 7-3 (9-1 ATS) in its last 10 games and the losses came on the road at #2 Kansas, #3 Oklahoma and #13 Iowa State. In their last game, the Longhorns beat #10 West Virginia, 85-78, in Austin.
Texas Tech has served notice it's on its way, beating three nationally ranked opponents in its last three games - knocking off #3 Oklahoma at home in its last game, winning at #25 Baylor the game before that, and then taking a home win over #13 Iowa State.
There are at least 10 legitimate bounce-back plays on today's 97-game college basketball schedule and the situation presents a powerful opportunity to make a major score. As a long-time believer in the so-called "bounce theory" - actually a fact on which I have made a fortune through the years - I have found the perfect spot to go for the money and I am going to do just that with my 100-unit Bounce-Back College Game of the Month today. There also is a big revenge factor in play in this game.
You can bet this game with complete confidence you will get the money by a comfortable pointspread margin and you can win it for just $50, charged to your major credit card. For the record I am 17-6 in 50 and 100-unit basketball plays over the last month.
College Basketball underdogs may be standing bettors on their heads at this point of the season but that is not the case with me. All my figures have been adjusted to account for the new challenges each team now faces - and those adjustments have been producing big upset winners. Most adjustments have been made to include the fate of each team in the post season. Some teams are looking for conference championships, a good seed in conference tournaments and ultimately an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. And then there are those who have given up and are just going through the motions, knowing they have little to play for.
On today's schedule we have a talented and focused underdog that needs to win to keep its hopes alive and I am releasing it as my 25-unit College Basketball Upset Game of the Week. You can win this one for just $25, charged to your major credit card.
One of the worst things any college basketball team can do is to crush an opponent and then add insult to injury by keeping the pedal to the metal until the final second ticks off the clock. We have just that situation in a return matchup and I have a gut feeling the favorite in this game - the team that made a fool of its opponent when they last met - is in for a royal butt-kicking today. I am releasing this game as my top Best Bets Basketball Investment Club play of the day and you can win it, along with two other best bets, for just $15, charged to your major credit card.