Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, February 10, 2016 at 5:00 PM
This cat is very slowly getting out of the bag. After my 50-unit winner on Wichita State over Drake Tuesday night, the Shockers are a stunning 12-2 against the spread the last 14 games even though everyone knows they’re the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference!
Oddsmakers are aware the team is good. But, they’re obviously unaware HOW good. And, when THE MOTIVATION FACTOR really came through for the Shockers in a bounce-back spot Tuesday night…the cover wasn’t in doubt.
I talked to you regular students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping about the importance of bounce backs very recently. We’re not handicapping in a vacuum here. I’m giving you REAL WORLD tips that will help you pick winners every night. A good team in a bounce-back spot can be pure gold, particularly when it’s combined with a meaningful advantage in PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS. Often the pointspread doesn’t even matter.
One thing I’ve also emphasized for you on these pages is the importance of the head coach. You’ve probably gotten used to seeing Gregg Marshall’s face on your TV during the Big Dance. Why do you forget to bet him during the regular season?! Few men have established better X’s and O’s bonafides. And, he knows how to recruit to his program.
A quick refresher of recent accomplishments for the Wichita State program under Coach Marshall.
2010-11: won the NIT
2011-12: reached the NCAA’s
2012-13: reached the FINAL FOUR as a mid-major!
2013-14: 35-1 final record but very unlucky Dance Draw
2014-15: reached the SWEET SIXTEEN
This year’s team is head and shoulders above the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference. They will probably be the only MVC team in the Dance unless there’s an upset in the conference tournament. A toe-stubbing at Illinois State (which still has WSU clear of the field by three games) was followed up immediately by that 50-unit rout.
I will admit that I was disappointed with the team’s poor start this season. Some new talent took awhile to gel. That tricked the betting marketplace into thinking this was going to be a down year for the Shockers. Maybe it will represent a step backward…and Wichita State is just crushing a poor conference before their wake-up call comes in the Dance. To me, it’s much more likely that Coach Marshall needed some time to get everyone playing together…and, once he had that time, this group rose up to where he expects them to be. The rest of the country better be scared about THAT come Dance time.
Heads up…this may be the only article I write about Wichita State because I’ll need to keep them under wraps next month when the Dance starts! Put them on your radar now…and look for value spots when they get disrespected in the NCAA’s.
Are there any other mid-majors worth putting on your radar? Let’s go to the computer rankings.
SMU: #19 in Pomeroy, #15 in Sagarin
Valparaiso: #23 in Pomeroy, #40 in Sagarin
St. Mary’s #26 in Pomeroy, #27 in Sagarin
Gonzaga: #34 in Pomeroy, #23 in Sagarin
Honestly, I’m not nearly as excited about those programs as I am about Wichita State. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are both from the West Coast Conference, which has a recent history of underachieving its seeding in the Dance. SMU under Larry Brown does a great job of bullying bad teams. They turn mortal (or worse) under pressure. Valpo may be a nice developing story worthy of further attention. Nobody’s talking about them…which is step one for becoming a surprise team.
It’s already been a crazy year in college basketball. So, it wouldn’t shock me at all if another mid-major made a very deep run in the Dance. All the top teams have weaknesses that can bite them within a 40-minute sprint. If Boston College can almost knock off North Carolina, then truly ANYTHING can happen this season. Will Wichita State shine under the spotlight again? Is there another Florida-Gulf Coast type team ready to make headlines from out of nowhere? Start thinking about those questions NOW so you have some answers a few weeks hence.
If you like winning big-unit plays, KELSO STURGEON’S top basketball selections can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters’ office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. Feel free to ask about longterm packages that take you through the college tournaments and/or the NBA Playoffs.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. Discipline and effort are more important in college basketball than any other sport because there are so many teams to follow. A “nose to the grindstone” attitude is repeatedly rewarded when you find teams who can go 12-2 ATS over 14 games! See you again this weekend to talk more basketball.
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters