Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, January 29, 2016 at 3:00 PM
Backing a quality team in a “bounce back” spot after a loss is one of the smartest things you can do in sports betting. This is true across all sports. You really put THE MOTIVATION FACTOR to work for you when you can jump on teams who “hate to lose” right after they just lost.
Of course, if it was really this easy, the lines would adjust and take your edge away. This approach can get tricky because:
*It’s not always obvious what “quality” team means amidst fatigue and injuries
*Not all quality teams “hate to lose” in a way that’s going to drive bounce backs
*The opponent often has something to say about matters too!
Bounce backs were a big part of my 5-1 overall service performance Thursday night in the baskets. Syracuse was a prominent example…as they stayed hot against the spread (five straight now) with an 81-66 blowout of Notre Dame. That came on the heels of a loss to Virginia for the Orange that still covered the spread. I really like what I’ve been seeing from this Syracuse group lately. It was great to get them in a “fired up” home spot against a big name opponent at such a cheap price.
I think this is one of the big handicapping strikes against all the kid quants out there who just use margin averages and algorithms from scoring. If you’re not accounting for THE MOTIVATION FACTOR into your handicapping mix, you’re missing out on too many winners.
Here are some strategies you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping can put to use this weekend and through the rest of college hoops.
*Only look at “bounce back” spots off a loss for teams in the upper half of their conferences. Don’t ask bad teams to bounce back. The better the team, the more likely they are to breathe fire off a loss.
*Be aware, though, that “talented teams” with “bad chemistry” often don’t bounce back! This is becoming an issue with some of the college powers who recruit arrogant high school stars who only care about their own individual performance. Give me a veteran team with unselfish players, and I’ll jump on them after a loss. A selfish team of pouters…forget about it. I may fade them again! This is why it’s helpful to watch as many games on TV as you can. You can learn a lot from a team’s body language.
*Be sure you’re aware of team health. If a quality team just lost because a key player had to miss the game with an injury…AND HE’S STILL OUT…there’s no reason to jump on them. They might keep losing until they’re back at full strength. They’ll “bounce back” from their skid once they’re at full strength. But, they may not have the horses to win without their stud. Those of you who pick games in some of the lower profile conferences…this is particularly relevant for you because injury information can be harder to come by.
*Evaluate the mindset of the opponent to see if you should make an even bigger bet. Is the opponent coming off a win that may have them fall flat? Has the opponent seemingly thrown in the towel on the season, meaning they won’t put up much of a fight? This is common in the second half of a college hoops season…which is why the “bounce back” angle should really be on your radar. Motivated teams crush towel tossers!
*Look for magnifiers that may increase your edge…meaning the “bounce back” team also has revenge from an earlier loss to this opponent…or the opponent has a big game coming up on TV the next time and may be looking past this one. It usually takes multiple indicators for KELSO STURGEON to release a 50-unit, 100-unit, or 200-unit play. The biggest scores you make will be triggered by the extra work you do pinning down advantages.
Have you been monitoring bounce back possibilities, or just kind of coasting through the schedule playing hunches? Here’s some homework for you for this weekend. Check to see what every team in the upper half of their conference did the last time out. Many won…because they’re good teams! Be sure you know who lost so you can ponder “bounce back” possibilities Saturday and Sunday. You’ll find this is a manageable and worthy task (easier if you’re limiting yourself to local conferences or your favorite TV conferences). I anticipate that you’ll start doing this every night for the rest of the season.
If you’d like some help making your final choices each day, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters’ office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155.
Have a great weekend. The Dean of Sports Handicapping will be back early next week to talk more basketball. Obviously the Super Bowl is coming up soon…and that will be front and center in the coursework later in the week. Thanks very much for your attendance. Now, get to that homework!
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