Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 12:00 PM
A lot of interesting activity in the Super Bowl Futures Markets on the heels of a startling Week 16 that saw last week’s NFL co-favorites (New England and Carolina) both lose. In fact, five of the top six teams in last week’s Futures rankings lost!
New England +330 (lost on the road to the NY Jets)
Carolina +330 (lost on the road to Atlanta)
Arizona +550 (looked AWESOME in a home blowout of Green Bay)
Seattle +700 (caught napping at home by St. Louis)
Green Bay +800 (routed in Arizona)
Pittsburgh +1000 (stunned on the road in Baltimore)
Note that four of those listed lost to DIVISIONAL rivals, which is one reason you should always look at late season divisional underdogs even if the game is “meaningless” to them in the standings. Pittsburgh may have been knocked out of the playoffs because they couldn’t stay focused for a team they knew hated them! They lost control of their destiny to the NY Jets.
The most interesting development in today’s new ratings is that Carolina has dropped back into a tie with Arizona as “co-favorites” to win the NFC. There’s still skepticism that Cam Newton can perform and maintain his composure under playoff pressure. Let’s run the new numbers. These are “composite” prices based on a consensus of offshore and Nevada sportsbooks.
(If this is your first time reading one of my Futures articles, these are based on $100 bets. So, a $100 bet on New England would win $330 if they win the Super Bowl…a $100 bet on Washington would win $4,000)
ODDS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL
New England +330 (no move, as market realizes loss was injury-related)
Carolina +400 (down from +330 amidst fears team peaked too early)
Arizona +400 (up from +550 with grinding of Green Bay)
Seattle +800 (down from +700 after bump in the road)
Denver +1000 (rising from +1200 with big MNF victory)
Green Bay +1000 (down from +800 as offense continues to struggle)
Kansas City +1400 (up from +1600 last week and +2000 two weeks ago)
Cincinnati +1600 (stood pat as McCarron gets his bearings)
The market is still fairly well anchored on New England representing the AFC, versus the survivor of a projected NFC Championship game matching Carolina and Arizona.
*There’s an assumption in the AFC that the Patriots will “get healthy” by the time their first playoff challenges roll around after a bye week. Whereas, Denver and Cincinnati will still have inexperienced quarterbacks trying to win big games, while Kansas City will be led by a coach and quarterback with poor January histories.
*Seattle is still a serious threat to crash the NFC party. But, that bandwagon hit a stop sign for a week with the flat performance against St. Louis. Three of the top four teams in terms of championship potential are in the NFC right now. Hard to argue with the market about that unless Brock Osweiler shows continued improvement.
Some other teams to discuss…
Pittsburgh +2200 (a free fall from +1000 as they lose control of destiny)
Minnesota +3000 (up from +4000 after blowout of NYG, other help)
NY Jets +3300 (way, way up from +6600 with shocking “parlay”)
Washington +4000 (up from +6600 after winning the NFC East)
Houston +6600 (standing pat because of difficult January path)
Indianapolis +10000 (still barely alive, needing a few miracles)
Funny that Pittsburgh is a bigger favorite than the Jets even though New York controls its own destiny in that race for the final AFC Wildcard spot. The market is telling you Pittsburgh has the higher ceiling. Plus, the Jets are basically a coin flip in Buffalo this week. The Steelers may be due to have a toss go their way. That “parlay” I was referring to in parenthesis references the Jets upsetting New England just as Pittsburgh was being upset by Baltimore.
Minnesota has the chance to be an interesting playoff team. But, the market is very skeptical of Teddy Bridgewater as a playoff quarterback. Nobody’s forgotten those bad home losses to Seattle and Green Bay.
Have to include Indianapolis because the Colts are mathematically alive. They’re realistically DEAD! They’d need a miracle to get into the brackets, then would be likely blowout fodder vs. whoever they faced given their awful recent form and lack of quarterback health.
We’re now just hours away from the college football Final Four…
ODDS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Michigan State +700
You’ll find slight differences if you shop around. The market’s been pretty solid on its pricing for these teams the last several days. Still time for some sharp syndicates to step forward before the Thursday kickoffs in a way that would affect the game lines and the Futures. I’ll talk more about those games in tomorrow’s bowl report. Here’s the upcoming schedule…
Wednesday: SEVEN college postseason games running Wednesday and Thursday…which are the Birmingham, Belk, Music City, Holiday, Chick-Fil-A, Orange, and Cotton Bowls. (The Orange and Cotton Bowls are the National Semifinals matching Oklahoma vs. Clemson and Alabama vs. Michigan State).
Thursday: The New Year’s and post-New Year’s bash for January 1-2 featuring the Outback, Citrus, Fiesta, Rose, Sugar, TaxSlayer, Liberty, Alamo, and Cactus bowls
Saturday January 2: we close out the 2015 NFL regular season with a look at Week 17.
Tuesday January 5: A look at Super Bowl Futures entering the NFL Playoffs.
Friday January 8: How sharps bet Wildcard Weekend in the days leading up to the NFL postseason.
Monday January 11: A complete report on how sharps bet the college football National Championship game that will be up hours before kickoff.
You can purchase my top selections in the bowls, the NFL, and basketball right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours.
See you again tomorrow as we gear up for the most exciting stretch of college bowl action. Thanks for reading!
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