Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Monday, December 28, 2015 at 12:00 PM
Back for a new week of college football bowl action. I’ll look at the SIX games set for Monday and Tuesday on this report. Our regular Tuesday report tomorrow will update the NFL Futures prices once Monday Night’s huge Bengals/Broncos game is in the books. Wednesday I’ll come back to check on Wednesday/Thursday bowl action (including the Final Four!). The day after, New Year’s Bowls and beyond.
WHAT A WEEK! Almost daily updates through New Year’s and into Week 17 of the NFL.
No time to waste. Here’s how the Wise Guys have been betting the Monday and Tuesday bowls...
MONDAY’S BOWL GAMES
MILITARY BOWL: PITSBURGH AT NAVY (in Annapolis on ESPN)
The game has mostly been sitting on the key number of three for Navy on its home field. Slightly more action on Pittsburgh at that price, so we may see Navy -2.5 tested between now and the afternoon kickoff. Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a tug-of-war between Navy -2.5 and Pittsburgh +3. The Over/Under is down three points from an opener of 56. That’s a mix of quant interest on the Under and a weather forecast in the low 40’s. It’s finally cooling off on the East Coast.
QUICK LANE BOWL: CENTRAL MICHIGAN VS. MINNESOTA (in Detroit on ESPN2)
Dog interest here as the opener of Central Michigan +5.5 is down to +4. Minnesota isn’t a “public” favorite that’s going to drive much square action. So, sharps preferring the dog took +5.5 and +5 figuring that was the best they’d see. Interest from some sectors continued even at +4.5. The total is down a point from 49.5 to 48.5. That’s against the flow of most “dome” totals. Sharps tend to expect shootouts indoors. Minnesota’s style is so low scoring though that quants got a slight grade Under the opener.
TUESDAY’S BOWL GAMES
ARMED FORCES BOWL: CALIFORNIA VS. AIR FORCE (in Ft. Worth on ESPN)
This game will be played on TCU’s home field. The opener of California -7 has been bet down to six. Good early showing for the Mountain West (4-1 ATS out of the gate). And, some sharps think this is a game that the kids from Cal will have trouble getting up for. The program had imagined a better bowl trip through most of the season. The total has shot up from 63 to 67. That right there tells you that the bad weather has left the Metroplex. Sharps expect Cal’s offense to play fast, and Cal’s defense to allow a lot of rushing yardage to the Air Force option.
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL: BAYLOR VS. NORTH CAROLINA (in Orlando on ESPN)
Oddsmakers were hesitant to trust their number here because of Baylor’s quarterback situation. A soft opener of Baylor -2 has been bet all the way to North Carolina -3. That tells you sharps made the game North Carolina -3! Oddsmakers don’t have much to go on with the inexperienced Baylor third-teamer. Now that the three has been fairly firmly established, Wise Guys will likely fade any public move off the key number. The Over/Under’s been sitting around 70 in what’s expected to be a fast-paced game.
ARIZONA BOWL: NEVADA VS. COLORADO STATE (in Tucson on Campus Insiders)
Very little betting interest in this bowl. The general public could care less about two Mountain West also-rans playing each other. And, they’ll have trouble finding a telecast of the game! The openers of Colorado State -3 and 56 have held steady pending further developments.
TEXAS BOWL: LSU VS. TEXAS TECH (in Houston on ESPN)
Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up between LSU -7 and Texas Tech +7.5. Thus far, there’s more sharp interest on the dog than the favorite. So…the game may ultimately settle on the seven unless the general public comes in hard on LSU between now and kickoff. Definitely time for that to happen in a fairly attractive TV matchup. The total is up from 71 to 73.5 in this extreme clash of styles.
My bowl BEST BETS are off to a great start. Knock on wood. Sometimes the key to the bowls is knowing which games to leave alone. A conservative approach is working wonders so far. If you’d like to join the fun, you can purchase my top daily plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 before the day games kick off.
A quick review of this week’s schedule…
Tuesday: An update on NFL Futures after Week 16…and a Sunday that saw New England, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Seattle all lose!
Wednesday: SEVEN college postseason games running Wednesday and Thursday…which are the Birmingham, Belk, Music City, Holiday, Chick-Fil-A, Orange, and Cotton Bowls. (The Orange and Cotton Bowls are the National Semifinals matching Oklahoma vs. Clemson and Alabama vs. Michigan State).
Thursday December 31: The New Year’s and post-New Year’s bash for January 1-2 featuring the Outback, Citrus, Fiesta, Rose, Sugar, TaxSlayer, Liberty, Alamo, and Cactus bowls
Saturday January 2: we close out the 2015 NFL regular season with a look at Week 17.
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow!
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