Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Sunday, December 13, 2015 at 7:00 PM
The last time we were together, I couldn’t confirm by that early deadline whether or not my clients and I would have a rooting interest in the Seattle Seahawks (-) at Baltimore. By game day…when it was clear that Jimmy Clausen was being thrown to the wolves at quarterback for the Ravens…I knew we’d have a big play.
100-units: Seattle (-10.5) beat Carolina 35-6
What a gift. Some people say you should never lay double digits in an NFL game. KELSO STURGEON is here to tell you that sometimes, those are the easiest gifts on the board. Seattle was a big favorite, and their victory margin almost tripled the spread!
I talked last week about Russell Wilson’s improved numbers of late. He had another huge game…on the heels of two other big monsters…
21-30-0-336 vs. Pittsburgh
21-28-0-260 at Minnesota
24-33-0-301 at Baltimore
Fantastic vs. Pittsburgh, who then looked great vs. Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Fantastic at Minnesota, who then looked surprisingly strong at Arizona five days later. Then, another 300 yard effort with the ball only touching the ground nine times against the fading Ravens. Oh…and those last two games featured “bad body clock” scenarios for the resurgent power from the Pacific Northwest.
I would also like to alert you to the third down category…
SEATTLE THIRD DOWNS
7 of 13 vs. Pittsburgh
9 of 13 at Minnesota
8 of 12 at Baltimore
Anything in the mid 40-percent range is very good this year. Seattle just popped 54%, 69%, and 67% in successive weeks. This had been a team that was conservative with Wilson in the past. They’d rather punt than commit a bad turnover. Now, they TRUST him! That’s allowing the Seahawks to move the ball much more consistently and dynamically.
Wilson is a PLAYMAKER and a GAMEBREAKER.
63% on third downs the past three games
66-91-0-897 in the air the past three games
Can’t get any sharper than that. In Seattle’s three most important games of the season in terms of getting back into the championship picture, no less. They had been 5-5 and struggling. Now they’re 8-5 and a very dangerous Wildcard behind Arizona (11-2) in the NFC West. Even as a visitor, Seattle will likely be a clear road favorite on the road at the NFC East champ. If they have the bad luck of drawing a road game at Green Bay to start out...well wouldn’t THAT be something. If that game were being played this coming week, my money would be on the Seahawks.
Plenty of football to be played. I wanted to provide this update for you today on that 100-unit result since our Seattle discussion loomed so large over the weekend.
Don’t forget that all of my unit-rated games are just a few clicks away. KELSO STURGEON’S top plays in football and basketball can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure you ask about combination packages for the NFL, the college bowls and Final Four, the NBA, and college hoops when you call.
I’ve pushed back our college bowl discussion until midweek. You can get an early start on your homework for Saturday’s beginning of the bowl blitz by doing the following…
*Create a “Motivation Index” for each team, where you rate how excited they probably are about their bowl on a scale of 1-10. The least motivated teams should be way down low (like Baylor being stuck in the Russell Athletic Bowl after expecting something better a couple of weeks ago). The most motivated teams should be way up (like, maybe, Cincinnati getting a trip to Hawaii just before Christmas).
*Review each team’s “last game” so you can get a sense of letdown or bounce back scenarios (don’t ask a team to get a great result two games in a row…especially if the season finale was a HUGE victory).
*Review each team’s “last month” so you can see which bowl qualifiers actually limped to a bid amidst some towel-tossing…and which bowl qualifiers are on a nice run where they finally put the pieces together in November.
We’ll talk more about how to use that information in a couple of days. I know you regulars here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping have an appreciation and respect for the power of doing your homework before making Las Vegas bets. Get to work! You should find some opportunities that are even stronger than Seattle over Baltimore.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping appreciates your attendance, and looks forward to seeing you again next time.
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