Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, December 1, 2015 at 12:00 PM
Bettors in Las Vegas (and around the world) who took the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl may have stopped breathing for several minutes this past Sunday night. It’s not that a loss to the Denver Broncos would have dampened the team’s championship hopes too much. But, the loss of Rob Gronkowski might have eliminated them!
Everyone remembers how shaky this team is without him. When he was writhing in pain with what turned out to be only a bruised knee, Patriots fans and backers could see the season passing before their eyes. For now, the news is good (from their perspective), and Gronkowski will be in action again soon.
That loss to Denver helped tighten the NFL Futures prices. Though, the Patriots are still firmly in the lead. Our weekly Tuesday look at “composite” prices from Nevada and offshore shows these teams at the top…
(If this is your first time reading one of my Futures articles, these are based on $100 bets. So, a $100 bet on New England would win $250 if they win the Super Bowl…a $100 bet on Minnesota would win $1,800)
ODDS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL
New England +250 (up from +200 after loss in Denver, Gronkowski scare)
Carolina +400 (only undefeated team, up from +500 last week)
Arizona +600 (still being taken very seriously)
Cincinnati +900 (up from +1200 after home blowout win)
Green Bay +1000 (tough to be optimistic after home loss to Chicago)
Denver +1000 (up from +1100, but still some skepticism about Osweiler)
Seattle +1400 (up from +1600 with win over Pittsburgh)
Minnesota +1800 (back up from +2500 after win in Atlanta)
New England is still the heavy favorite to win the AFC. There’s skepticism about Andy Dalton of Cincinnati in big games…and the market isn’t ready to accept Brock Osweiler as a man who can lead a team to the Lombardi Trophy just yet. New England would still be the AFC favorite without Gronkowski in my view. But, they would be much less likely to be laying points over the NFC champs.
Over in the NFC, Carolina is the only undefeated team left in the league. They and Arizona will likely earn first round byes. It will be interesting to see Green Bay and Seattle as dangerous but vulnerable Wildcards if those teams can’t chase down first place in their divisions.
There are still some potential spoilers in the mix…but it’s getting harder and harder to see these teams running the table in January…
Pittsburgh +2500 (down a bit after loss in Seattle)
Indianapolis +2500 (holding steady after lucky win in Atlanta)
Kansas City +2800 (midseason surge continued with win over Buffalo)
NY Giants +4000 (took a hit with loss at Washington, tough scheduled ahead)
Houston +4000 (really looking good the past few weeks
Washington +5000 (now with inside track to win NFC East)
NY Jets +6600 (hanging around, big game with Giants Sunday)
Kansas City is in very good form lately…which gives them at least a chance to get into the brackets. But, the market doesn’t like this head coach and quarterback when it comes to playoff football. So, Kansas City getting hot wouldn’t affect the pricing of AFC teams at the top. Houston and Washington have a chance to win bad divisions.
Atlanta +12500 (tough to take seriously after another bad loss)
Buffalo +12500 (loss in Kansas City a big blow from Futures perspective)
Chicago +12500 (big jump from +2500 with upset win in Green Bay. Surging)
Oakland +12500 (a great story, but it would take a miracle)
Philadelphia +15000 (erratic pricing as some our stubborn)
Baltimore +20000 (erratic pricing after Monday night win in Cleveland)
Dallas +20000 (stick a form in them with Romo shelved again)
Detroit +20000 (too little too late, but up from +30000)
St. Louis +25000 (still plummeting)
Tampa Bay +25000 (fell back to earth with loss at Indy)
A lot of drama in this group…with Chicago becoming a very interesting story while so many other teams start to fall by the wayside. Atlanta disappeared after a great start. Philadelphia is one of the biggest market disappointments ever considering Preseason expectations. Dallas can’t win without Tony Romo.
Jacksonville, Miami, New Orleans +30000
San Diego, Tennessee +75000
Cleveland, San Francisco +100000
The worst teams in the NFL…many of whom will now be focused on positioning for the draft.
The college football championship picture has really solidified without any major upsets last week. Though there could be upsets this weekend, the market is assuming for now that Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma are going to make the Final Four…with the winner of Michigan State/Iowa in the Big 10 Championship game generating the final entry.
ODDS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Alabama +150 (up from +175 as they stay on top of market ratings)
Clemson +300 (holding steady)
Oklahoma +350 (big move from +1000 with sweep of Big 12 powers)
Michigan State +650 (now the favored to finish out the Final Four)
Iowa +1000 (up from +1200 as they stay undefeated)
North Carolina +2500 (a chance that upsetting Clemson lifts them into brackets)
Ohio State +4000 (needs a lot of help, but it’s not impossible)
Only North Carolina and Ohio State are seen as potential party crashers if there are upsets. Alabama would be a neutral field favorite over any other team at the moment.
Back with you in a few days with our regular “sharps” reports…
Thursday: How Sharps are Betting Thursday NFL and Friday College Football
Lunchtime Friday: How Sharps are Betting Saturday’s Marquee College Matchups
Dinnertime Friday: How Sharps are Betting Sunday/Monday NFL
That midday Friday report will cover all of the conference championship games plus maybe Texas/Baylor if anything interesting is happening there. A quick heads up…once the bowls begin I’ll a very active reporting schedule to keep you updated every few days.
You can purchase my top selections all sports through the college bowls and NFL Playoffs right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours.
Thanks for reading this week’s Futures report. I know YOUR future is bright if you continue to learn from the markets! See you again soon.
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