Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 3:56 PM
I will be the first to admit the past few days have been a win-lose-win-lose grind in both the National Basketball Association playoffs and in Major League Baseball, but that happens from time to time. Not to fear-the winning formula is in place and it works.
On Friday night I am releasing my 100-unit 1st Round NBA Playoff Game of the Year and am confident the team I am releasing will get it done in dominating fashion. This is my first 100-unit play of the post season and my figures say I have a 90% chance of winning and covering in this one. It does not get better than this in the NBA.
The game will be released on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255. It is yours for just $50, or as part of you NBA Playoff Package. For those who have not signed up for the complete NBA package, it is available for $199, charged to your major credit card. The package gives you daily selections right through the championship round in late June, plus daily Best Bet Club plays in baseball.
For the NBA numbers pundits, after 17 games favorites stand 10-6-1 against the spread (ATS) while in the totals department the "under" has prevailed by a narrow 9-8 margin.
In handicapping the NBA, just keep in mind the hidden element in the process is just how much energy a team brings to its next game. A team that has been all out to win its previous game/games is going to have less energy than is the team that has been breezing, i.e. the San Antonio Spurs who have taken the Utah Jazz down twice-114-83 and 106-91.
For what it is worth, I have added the Atlanta Hawks to the list of teams that have no chance to get out of the first round. The Hawks are a gutless bunch of no-heart players that give it up at the snap of a finger. For various reasons, the other teams on this list-put out before the first playoff games were played-were the New York Knicks, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz.
Winning Is Sometimes In The Numbers
Baseball handicappers and fans worship numbers and well they should because there is no other sport that statistical data are so accurate in predicting the outcome of a single game, or a series of games. For instance, the Minnesota Twins have the worst team in baseball, standing 6-18 and in last place in the American League Central.
The Twins are 1-9 in their last 10 games, 3-8 at home and 3-10 on the road. The record matches the numbers. Minnesota is ranked 4th in the American League in hitting, with a .263 batting average, and 14th of 15 teams in pitching with the team having an earned run average of 5.77.
A team certainly has to hit to score but pitching is at least 90% of the winning equation and no team with an ERA of 5.77 is going to record too many wins. For instance the three teams with the second best records (17-8)-the Tampa Bay Rays, the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Dodgers-have pitching staffs with respective ERA's of 4.19, 2.83 and 3.15.
Speaking of numbers, it should come as no secret to baseball bettors that picking winners can come using nothing but the numbers. With that in mind it was be noted there have been six games all season in which the total was 6 ½ or less runs and those games went "under" by a 6-0 margin.
Again, this just proves the impact of pitching on the outcome of games, whether one is betting sides or totals.
While baseball handicapping focuses pm statistical data, no one should bet blinding on the basis of numbers. The Oakland Athletics are 13-13 and have compiled that record on the strength of pitching, with their staff leading the American League with an ERA of 2.68. Things would be a lot better for them if they could hit, but they cannot, and have baseball's worst battling average-a stunningly awful .203.
It's all just food for thought.
Friday's Betting Menu
100-Unit NBA 1st Round Playoff Game Of Year Wins Friday Night
I have had somewhat of an up-and-down NBA post-season thus far but tonight it is time to step up and send it in on my 100-Unit 1st Round NBA Game of the Year. And I promise you can bet this team with complete confidence it will win and cover the number. My figures say it has better than a 90% chance to do both. There are three games tonight-the Atlanta Hawks at the Boston Celtics, the Chicago Bulls at the Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Lakers at the Denver Nuggets-and in one of these matchups is a team with almost all the edges and which is ready to fire its best shot. Win this giant knockout play for just $50, charged to your major credit card. Better yet, get on board for my entire NBA playoff package for just $199 and receive this 100-unit winner as part of the package. My NBA playoff offer is all inclusive and will have daily selections right through the championship round in late June. It also includes daily best bets in baseball.
Nationally Televised Pitchers' Duel Of Week Highlights 2-0 Friday Night
It may look as if it is just another baseball game when the Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox tonight but it is anything but that. It is our pitchers' duel of the week and I have very strong feelings about who will win this nationally televised (MLB Network) game. Pitching for Detroit will be rookie left-hander Drew Smyly (1-0, 1.23) whose major league debut has been nothing short of sensational. No pitcher since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981 has begun a season giving up one run or less in his first four starts but Smyly has done just that. Opposing the rookie will be Chicago White Sox veteran right-hander Jake Peavy (3-1, 1.67) who is having a career year. He has gone nine innings in each of his last two starts and has pitched brilliantly. But hidden in the fine print is the edge that will put one of these teams in the winner's circle and I know what it is. Win a 15-unit play on this game, plus a standout 5-unit play, for just $10, charged to your major credit card.
25-Unit Underdog Shocks Baseball World Friday Night
I seldom second guess those who make baseball betting lines but tonight I am making a rare exception. There are 15 games on the board tonight and in one of them a giant underdog grades out the straight up winner. This one is hard to figure but I live and die with my figures and they say this 'dog should march right to the winner's circle and I feel so strongly about it I am releasing it as a 25-unit play. Win this stunner for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
Games also available toll free at 1-800-755-2255.