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Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, November 27, 2015 at 6:00 PM

Only 13 games Sunday and Monday because we had three on Thanksgiving. No byes this week. Everyone had played 10 games entering Week 12…and it’s now a clear road ahead in the race for the championship.

Matchups are presented in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.

 

SUNDAY

NEW ORLEANS AT HOUSTON: This game has been locked on the key number of three all week. Might be tough to move off because Drew Brees would definitely get respect at anything higher, while the New Orleans defense would definitely be disrespected at anything lower. Houston isn’t a team the public usually bets with any passion. They’ve backed off the Saints given their poor money performance this season. The total is down from 49 to 48 on a slight quant move. I’ll only mention Over/Unders in games that have moved at least a point. Not many as of Friday afternoon this week.

MINNESOTA AT ATLANTA: An opener of Atlanta -2 has seen a slight drop. Sharps soured on the Falcons a few weeks back, though some were still surprised they blew the Colts game. Minnesota cost a lot of important bettors a lot of money last week when they played so poorly vs. Green Bay. That result looks even worse now with the Packers losing to the Bears Thursday night. Minnesota is +1.5 as I write this. Should that stand pat, the Vikings +7.5 will be a popular pick in two-team teasers because the six-point move would cross both the 3 and the 7. Clear jump on the total from an opener of 44 up to 45.5. Not a weather play obviously in this dome game.  

ST. LOUIS AT CINCINNATI: The St. Louis quarterback situation is still up in the air. But, Case Keenum wasn’t an obvious upgrade from Nick Foles. So, it may not mean much if he’s held out of the game. In fact, the opener of Cincinnati -9 is down to -8.5 or -8 depending on the store even with the question marks. There’s still a lot of respect for the St. Louis defense even if the offense is awful. If the number stays there…the Bengals -2 or -2.5 will be popular in two-team teasers.  

TAMPA BAY AT INDIANAPOLIS: Possibly a tug-of-war shaping up, because sharps like the improving Tampa Bay Bucs at +3…but money does come in on the home favorite when -2.5 is posted. The public is still skeptical about the Bucs. I’m talking to more and more sharps who like what they’re seeing with Jameis Winston. He had a huge game in Philadelphia last week. That lost some luster when Detroit did the same thing on Thursday. Probably won’t be a heavily bet game (unless there are squares who forget that Andrew Luck is still out for the Colts!).

NY GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: The Giants have jumped all the way from pick-em to -2.5 in what’s suddenly become a huge game in the NFC East. Both the Eagles and Cowboys lost Thursday, making this a virtual playoff game in the race for the divisional crown. It is expected that sharp money would come in hard on the home underdog at +3. Washington has played pretty well at home this year, even if they can’t figure out how to do that on the road yet. If this one sticks at 2.5…then Washington +8.5 will be a popular teaser choice. Certain sharp syndicates do like the Giants at -2 or less…but some Washington money is biding its time.  

OAKLAND AT TENNESSEE: Oakland opened at -2. Sharps aren’t interested in betting them at that price because the Raiders have been yanked all over the country by their schedule. A bad result in Detroit last week didn’t exactly foreshadow a big day here either. Stores seeing Tennessee money have tested -1.5. or -1. Not much happening beyond that in what’s expected to be a lightly bet game relative to the rest of the card. Even “locals” in Nevada know this is a tough spot to invest in their Raiders. Another likely teaser game with Tennessee +7.5 or +8 fitting into the basic strategy window.

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY: Kansas City impressed a lot of sharps with that blowout win at San Diego last week. It was an obvious letdown spot for the Chiefs after they got revenge at Denver. Plus, the Chargers were coming in off a bye. 33-3 Kansas City! The opener here of -5.5 was bet up to -6. This game would have been about half that if played a month ago. It might take more than the six to bring in sharp Buffalo money because the Wise guys know the Bills left everything on the field at New England last Monday night.  

MIAMI AT THE NY JETS: The Jets rose from -3 to -3.5. You regulars know that’s actually a BIG move because it takes a lot of money to get a game off the three in the NFL. Miami’s really fallen apart lately…and that loss to Dallas looked much worse when the Cowboys were getting crushed by Carolina before the injury to Tony Romo. Playing a close game with Philadelphia (which happened recently) also didn’t look very good with what happened to the Eagles after that. Some sharps were very happy to lay the field goal. Not much motivation to buy back on the Dolphins.  

SAN DIEGO AT JACKSONVILLE: How about the Jaguars getting respect in the market?! This one opened above the key number with Jacksonville -3.5. It’s been bet up to a solid -4. San Diego’s looked awful lately, even with the bye. There are some sharp concerns that the team is tanking for the draft. Very tough to bet a team like that. The Jaguars were lucky to cover as a favorite vs. Tennessee a week ago Thursday. Maybe the extra rest will help them here. I finally have an Over/Under to talk about. Not much happening on totals yet because many sharps are waiting to see what the weather’s going to do. This one dropped from 48.5 to 46.5 because San Diego’s offense has struggled so badly of late. One way to “fade” the weakness of San Diego without backing the untrustworthy Jaguars is to focus on the Under.  

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: The opener of Arizona -10 has nudged up to -10.5 in most places. Nobody wants to bet the Niners after they allowed more than 500 yards in a non-cover at Seattle last week. Arizona is becoming a public team…but squares aren’t ready to lay double digits on the road with them just yet. So, we have some early sharp action on the Cards at the 10. Might be it barring some injury news.  

PITTSBURGH AT SEATTLE: This will be the showcase game of the late afternoon. Only this one and Arizona/SF are scheduled in that TV window. Seattle opened at -4, and has been bet down to -3.5. It’s a bit odd to have a tug-of-war in those spots. Those are more common around key numbers. But, sharps really like Pittsburgh at the four because the Steelers have played well with Ben Roethlisberger, while Seattle has outright home losses to playoff bound Carolina and Arizona. The public still bets Seattle as favorites out of habit...which will likely keep the game from falling to the three. Should be a heavily bet game with so little else going on at the time. The Over/Under has been bet up from 44 to 46 because both teams have shown a recent tendency for shootouts. A rare Sunday where it’s supposed to be sunny in Seattle but overcast almost everywhere else.

NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER: Mostly painted three through the week, though some stores are testing 2.5 because Denver money is more prominent on the key number. New England didn’t exactly sparkle vs. the NY Giants and Buffalo the last two games. Now they’re playing on the road against a great defense. And, everyone remembers what happened when Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers played here not too long ago. The public isn’t ready to load up on Brock Osweiler yet. Sharps who focus on defense see value on the Broncos at the key number. Should 2.5 become more common on Sunday…then Denver +8.5 will be a very popular “defensive dog” play in sharp teasers.  

 

MONDAY NIGHT

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: This one has jumped from pick-em to Cleveland -3. A lot going on here with Joe Flacco getting knocked out for the season last Sunday before Johnny Manziel was benched for the Browns a bit later. Sharps do like McCown better than Manziel, and do expect more intensity for this rivalry game at the Dawg Pound. It’s not like Baltimore money is flooding at the three. Monitor game day betting for any major developments. It’s likely sharps would fade any move off the three…particularly if the public comes in on the dog. We already know the Wise Guys like the Browns at anything less than three.  

My BEST BETS in the Saturday colleges and this weekend’s NFL can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 before the first kick Saturday or Sunday.

You’re probably a bit tired of turkey now. But, nobody gets tired of betting football here in Las Vegas! I hope you have a great holiday weekend. I’ll see you again on Tuesday with an updated Futures report for the Super Bowl and college football championship. Thanks for reading.

 

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Richie B. on twitter @vsm_baccellieri

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