Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, November 26, 2015 at 7:00 PM
I hope you had a great Thanksgiving! We continue our coverage of sharp betting action over the holiday weekend with a look at marquee matchups on the Friday college football slate. Games are listed in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules…
SELECT FRIDAY MARQUEE MATCHUPS
MARSHALL AT WESTERN KENTUCKY (on FoxSports1): Big sharp interest on the Over, as the opener of 60 was bet all the way up to 64 even though wind is in the forecast. These two teams are expected to play a shootout…though maybe not a back-and-forth affair because of the high line. Western Kentucky opened at -10.5. When 11 is broached underdog money does come in. So, we may see a tug-of-war before this early noon ET kickoff on Western Kentucky -10.5 and Marshall +11. Quants were happy with Over anything at 63 or less.
IOWA AT NEBRASKA (on ABC): This one was time changed to the higher profile 3:30 p.m. ET window because Iowa is now a prominent part of the national championship discussion. An opener of Iowa -2.5 is down to -2. That’s only half a point…but it’s away from the key number of three…so that’s a telling move. There is some support for Iowa though because it hasn’t come down any lower. Not much happening on the total even though it’s expected to be very cold and breezy. Nebraska is prone to playing high scoring games in any conditions…so Under interest wasn’t much of an issue. At least not yet. From this point forward, I’ll only mention totals that have moved at least a point.
MIAMI AT PITTSBURGH (on ESPN2): Pittsburgh opened at -5.5, and was bet up to the key number of -7. That stopped the rise because some Miami money did come in. But, we didn’t see a strong enough buy back to come below the seven. So…Pittsburgh money is very happy below the seven…while the key number is still largely splitting the action.
MISSOURI AT ARKANSAS (on CBS): The only thing happening here was a slight move off the opener of Arkansas -13.5 to the key number of -14. The Hogs have been very impressive in recent weeks. But, they’re now playing a more defensive minded opponent that can inhibit blowout potential. The total is only in the mid 40’s…and it’s hard to win routs. I would expect the Wise Guys to fade any public move off the 14 on game day.
NAVY AT HOUSTON (on ABC): This one has been time changed to noon ET for that ABC telecast. Big move here on Navy as the opener of Middies +1 is now all the way up to Navy -4. Houston has some injury issues at the quarterback position, and has been wearing down in recent weeks through the toughest part of their schedule. Tough to stop Navy’s option attack when you’re out of gas!
WASHINGTON STATE AT WASHINGTON (on FOX): Washington is up from -6 to -7. Wazzou quarterback Luke Falk is expected to miss the game. But, that was incorporated into the opener because his concussion happened in plenty of time for oddsmakers to make an assessment. Sharps liked the Huskies below the key number…but nothing in the market has inspired a move off the seven yet.
BOISE STATE AT SAN JOSE STATE (on CBS Sports Network): Boise State has been a big money-burner of late. They lost as 30-point favorites to New Mexico, then were humbled by Air Force last week. Oddsmakers still gave them respect at an opening line of -8. Sharps hit the dog at that price. We’re seeing 7 and 7.5 now…suggesting a tug-of-war between Boise -7 and San Jose State +7.5 between now and kickoff. The total has been bet down from 60 to 57.5 by quants, as weather doesn’t look like it will be an issue.
BAYLOR AT TCU (on ESPN): Now, this one is expected to be a back-and-forth shootout! The opener of TCU -2 and 80 is down to -1 and 78.5 because wind and rain are likely to be a factor. It will be interesting to see these offenses try to execute in wet weather if that’s the case. My read on sharps is that they’re waiting to bet on Baylor until they know for sure the status of Trevone Boykin for TCU. Baylor’s #3 quarterback more than held his own vs. Oklahoma State last week.
My BEST BETS in Friday college football can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 before the first kick Friday. I have a big weekend planned in both the colleges and the pros. And, don’t forget to ask about college basketball, my favorite sport to handicap.
Back with you midday Friday to look at Saturday’s top college matchups (like Ohio State/Michigan, Alabama/Auburn, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State, Notre Dame/Stanford, and UCLA/USC). Then I’ll be back late in the day for our weekly look at the NFL.
You may be eating leftovers Friday, but I hope to have some fresh winners you can enjoy! See you around lunchtime Friday. Thanks for reading.
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