Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Wednesday, November 25, 2015 at 5:00 PM
Here’s a look at how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the five football games set for Thanksgiving Day and night. I’ll be back Thursday evening with a look at marquee matchups in Friday college football. Then, we’ll get back to our regular schedule Friday for all the big action through the holiday weekend.
As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules…
PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT (on FOX): The opener of pick-em has been bet up to Detroit -2 with some stores testing -2.5. That’s a big indictment of the Eagles’ current form. But, if you lose home games to Miami and Tampa Bay in successive weeks, something’s wrong! There are reports that Sam Bradford has a good chance of coming back for Philly. Sharps like Detroit anyway at -2 or less. I would be surprised if the key number of three is broached on game day. There’s too much lingering respect for the Eagles for the market to suddenly see them as only equal to the disappointing Lions (home field value by itself is usually worth 3 in the NFL). The Over/Under is down from 47 to 45.5 because the Lions have been playing better defense since the front office housecleaning. Obviously that’s a quant move rather than a weather issue in the dome.
CAROLINA AT DALLAS (on CBS): Dallas opened at -1. Even though it’s not a key number, any testing gets pushed back to the one. Carolina money is happy to take +1.5 with an undefeated team that’s in very good form. Some sharp and more public money are interested in the rejuvenated Cowboys who played very well last week in the return of Tony Romo. This should be a very heavily bet matchup on game day because everyone loves betting the Cowboys game on Thanksgiving! Also, here in Las Vegas…that Lions game starts mid-morning, while Dallas begins at a better betting time in the afternoon. Like the first NFL game today, this total opened at 47 and has been bet down to 45.5.
CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY (on NBC): The big move here was on the Over/Under as a forecast for rain and wind has helped drop the opener of 48 all the way down to 45. Some stores are testing 44.5 It’s going to be unseasonably warm at 41 degrees in late November. But…rain and wind are scoring inhibitors. Green Bay opened at -9 on the team side. Chicago money brought that down to +8.5. The public usually loves betting on Green Bay…but three failures in a row before the Minnesota win last week may have dampened that enthusiasm. Note that two-team teasers players will be looking at Philadelphia +8 or +8.5 and Green Bay -2.5 if the current lines stay in the window that crosses both the 3 and the 7 with a six-point move. If Dallas sticks at -1.5 for any period of time, Carolina +7.5 will also be a popular sharp teaser choice.
SOUTH FLORIDA AT CENTRAL FLORIDA (on ESPN): No line yet because of an injury to the quarterback of Central Florida. This isn’t expected to be an actively bet game because the home team is winless for the season! Even though this is an ESPN game, football bettors will be much more focused on the NFL games and the Big 12 rivalry matchup. If a line does come up soon…assume that first moves off the openers are sharp.
TEXAS TECH AT TEXAS (on FoxSports1): Another spot where the total has dropped because of rain and win in the forecast. There’s a chance for heavy rains in Austin Thursday night. The market opened at 75 but has come all the way down to 72. Texas is still near the opener of -1 on the team side. I think sharps would have been looking very seriously at Texas Tech in better weather. Rain, wind, and a decent Texas defense have a chance to slow down the Red Raiders attack. Let’s see what happens on game day. If the forecast was overly dramatic, we may see money on Tech and the Over before kickoff.
My BEST BETS in pro and college football all through the holiday weekend can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 before the first kick Thursday or Friday during normal office hours.
Here’s the “sharp report” schedule for the rest of the weekend…
Late Thursday: Marquee Friday College matchups (like Iowa/Nebraska, Navy/Houston, and Baylor/TCU).
Midday Friday: Marquee Saturday College matchups (like Ohio State/Michigan, Alabama/Auburn, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State, Notre Dame/Stanford, and UCLA/USC).
Late Friday: our weekly look at sharp betting in the NFL (which will include that huge Sunday night game matching the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos).
Thanks for reading. Happy Thanksgiving! See you late Thursday.
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