Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, November 24, 2015 at 12:00 PM
My weekly look at NFL Futures pricing shows that both the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are being taken more seriously as legitimate championship threats. They keep winning! Carolina has avoided potential flat spots with great results. Arizona beat Cincinnati this past Sunday night in a real tester…coming on the heels of another big Sunday night win over Cincinnati.
It’s much easier now than it was a month ago to see these as Super Bowl caliber teams. New England is still the market favorite in what might be a less competitive AFC. Carolina and Arizona are for real…even as Green Bay gets back on the radar with a huge road win at Minnesota.
Here are “composite” prices I’ve gathered from around Nevada and offshore...
(If this is your first time reading one of my Futures articles, these are based on $100 bets. So, a $100 bet on New England would win $200 if they win the Super Bowl…a $100 bet on Seattle would win $1,600)
ODDS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL
New England +200 (some stores have dropped to +185)
Carolina +500 (still undefeated, was +550 last week)
Arizona +650 (was +1400 two weeks ago, big win over Cincy)
Green Bay +700 (improved from +900 after righting the ship in Minnesota)
Denver +1100 (up from +1200 after Osweiler won in Chicago)
Cincinnati +1200 (falling after second straight loss)
Seattle +1600 (fading because market beginning to trust Carolina and Arizona)
Still plenty of football to be played. But, the bye weeks are close to being determined unless some star quarterbacks get hurt. New England is a virtual lock for the #1 seed in the AFC. It’s also a virtual lock that two of three amongst Carolina/Arizona/Green Bay will get by weeks and some home cooking. Those are the only four teams below the +1000 pricing threshold at the moment.
Denver would certainly rise back into the mix if they could beat New England this Sunday night in a game the whole world will be watching. Brock Osweiler certainly held his own last week. That’s not always difficult against a team like the Chicago Bears. Big test this holiday weekend for the Broncos…possibly a course-altering test out of the Peyton Manning years too.
Looking further down the NFL ladder…
Pittsburgh +2200 (up from +3300 two weeks ago)
Minnesota +2500 (big drop from +1600 after being exposed by Green Bay)
Indianapolis +2500 (holding steady after lucky win in Atlanta)
NY Giants +3300 (bye last week)
Kansas City +4000 (big jump as midseason surge continues)
Dallas +6600 (skyrocketing from +15000 as Romo wins and Philly loses)
Houston +6600 (same jump over two weeks with big wins over Cincy/NYJ)
Philadelphia +6600 (down from +3300 after bad home loss to Tampa Bay)
Atlanta +6600 (down from +4000 last week as bad slide continues)
Buffalo +8000 (hurt a bit, but loss at New England was competitive)
Some very interesting storylines developing here…though they’re not likely to see any surprising runs to the Super Bowl. Maybe Pittsburgh can go the distance with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Maybe Dallas with a healthy Tony Romo can close hard and sneak in after digging such a huge hole. But, generally speaking, we’re looking at spoilers who might mess things up in a one-game playoff showdown for one of the elites. Minnesota could upset Carolina or Arizona…but isn’t likely to string together victories. Somebody’s going to win the NFC East and AFC South. Those winners might be dangerous floaters. The ceiling with this group is probably “playing exciting football in the playoffs” rather than winning the Super Bowl. And, few will make a run at that ceiling.
NY Jets +10000 (down from +6600 after second straight loss)
Washington +10000 (still alive in a poor division)
Tampa Bay +15000 (wow…up from +40000 with blowout in Philly)
Miami +17500 (tough to take seriously after past month)
Oakland +17500 (fading, and jet lagged)
St. Louis +20000 (hill looks too steep)
New Orleans +20000
Biggest news here is that the Jets aren’t being taken very seriously any more after losing to Buffalo and Houston. Tampa Bay’s a nice story with Jameis Winston offering some hints about what Tampa Bay might be able to do next season.
Baltimore, Detroit +30000
San Diego, Tennessee +75000
Cleveland, San Francisco +100000
Let’s update the college numbers since we started tracking those last week…
ODDS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Alabama +175 (up from +225 after Ohio State was exposed)
Clemson +300 (up from +350 along same lines)
Notre Dame +700
Oklahoma +1000 (both ND and OU unchanged after close, non-cover wins)
Michigan State +1000 (back on the radar with manageable path)
Iowa +1200 (up from +1800 with Ohio State possibly out of the way)
Ohio State +3300 (falling off a cliff from +275 after debacle vs. Sparty)
Oklahoma State +5000 (plummeting from +1200 after bad loss to Baylor)
Note that Michigan and Florida are with Ohio State in the +3300 range as potential longshots, while North Carolina joins Okie State at +5000 with a potential pathway through Clemson if some other contenders lose.
ODDS TO WIN THE NCAA BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Kentucky +700 (up from +800 after beating Duke)
North Carolina +900 (down from +800 after losing to Northern Iowa)
Michigan State, Virginia +1800
Kentucky looked great vs. Duke, suggesting that they’re not going to fall very far from last year’s heights even with the loss of some key personnel.
I’m going to add in a BONUS report this week because of the big Friday schedule in the colleges…
Late Wednesday: How Sharps are Betting Thanksgiving Football (5 games)
Late Thursday: How Sharps are Betting Friday’s Marquee College Matchups
Lunchtime Friday: How Sharps are Betting Saturday’s Marquee College Matchups
Dinnertime Friday: How Sharps are Betting Sunday/Monday NFL
You can purchase my top selections all sports through Thanksgiving Weekend right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about my holiday package or longterm programs, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 Tuesday or Wednesday during regular business hours.
It’s going to be a great week! See you again just before Turkey Day. Thanks for reading.
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