Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, November 23, 2015 at 7:00 AM
Though an SEC team could very well win this season’s national championship, continuing a general trend that’s been going on for a decade (busted recently by Florida State and Ohio State), the conference as a whole is falling apart. This past Saturday saw a sequence of results that was, frankly, unimaginable as recently as a few weeks ago. Even though Alabama might be the best team in the nation…look what happened to these other SEC notables…
FLORIDA, who will be representing the SEC East in the conference championship game had to go overtime to beat Florida Atlantic. The Gators were favored by about 30 points! Little FAU won total yardage 299-252!
GEORGIA, who shouldn’t have collapsed this badly even though they’ve had some injuries, had to go overtime to beat Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs were favored by two touchdowns. Head coach Mark Richt is likely on his way out at the end of the season. He’s been on the hot seat in good years! No way the locals accept this.
SOUTH CAROLINA, still reeling from the retirement of Steve Spurrier, lost OUTRIGHT to the Citadel! The Gamecocks were favored by three touchdowns. Remember when Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina used to play high profile TV games against each other every season? None of them could win outright in regulation vs. Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, or the Citadel. Given the athletes on the field, that should be impossible.
I also want to mention AUBURN. They beat Idaho 56-34…but even that missed the Vegas spread by double digits. And, Auburn was outgained 479-460 in a game won with turnovers. The Tigers were in the national championship game just two seasons ago. Southern media assumed that Auburn would surpass Alabama as the best team in the state because of their “cutting edge” offense. Outgained at home by Idaho!
Again…that’s Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Citadel, and Idaho making the SEC look bad.
The deepest conference in the sport suddenly isn’t all that deep any more. And, even LSU is talking about firing its head coach after a bad loss to Ole Miss this past Saturday. ESPN’s computer guys were saying this was one of the best teams in the country a few weeks ago (a myth they started in early September). The Tigers just lost by double digits to Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss in successive weeks. Who’s ESPN going to fire if LSU fires Les Miles?
Look…there’s still a lot to like about the SEC. And, other conferences are also having issues. It’s one of those years where hardly anyone’s really “great.” Defenses are figuring out how to stop the spread. Recruiting isn’t as top-heavy as it used to be for a variety of reasons (a lot of programs are on TV all the time, which helps spread out where blue-chippers go, for example). It’s not like the SEC has fallen behind the Big 12 or the ACC. But, it’s crystal clear that the SEC is trending in the wrong direction.
Remember that come bowl time!
It’s important to note that the list above isn’t just an indictment of the SEC…it’s an indictment of oddsmakers. They were way off the mark in those games…have been way off the mark with LSU as soon as the Tigers started playing top teams…and have frankly done a poor job of evaluating the championship picture. That’s hidden some because the general public is even worse! If squares are going to keep betting favorites, oddsmakers are going to be pricing in the wrong direction. The key is listening to these guys when they’re on TV or radio shows. Somebody was saying recently that Ohio State would have been pick-em with Alabama. Yeah, right!
You students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping need to take from today’s discussion an understanding that the market is going to be easily beatable through Thanksgiving weekend, the conference championship games, and the bowls. So many teams aren’t playing to their perceptions that the money is there for the taking if you’re willing to do your homework. From Thanksgiving through New Year’s and beyond!
Our coursework is designed to enlighten do-it-yourselfers. If you’d like some help finding the best bets on the board in football and basketball, top plays from KELSO STURGEON can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
I’ll be back before Thanksgiving with another handicapping discussion. Then I’ll check in over the weekend with an NFL topic. The Dean of Sports Handicapping knows that a holiday week is even more special if your cornucopia is filled with cash! I’ll do my best to help you make that happen. Thanks again for your attendance and attention. See you next time.
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