Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, November 19, 2015 at 11:00 AM
Here in Las Vegas…people love to bet on football. That affection will be tested because this might be the WORST Thursday football schedules ever! Here’s a look at how the Wise Guys have been betting the five football games set for the next two nights…
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE (on NFL Network): We’re sitting on a solid Jacksonville -3 right now. Some stores tested -2.5 earlier in the week…but Jaguars money came in quickly to push that back to the key number. If the public lines up on either side here, sharps would fade any move off the three. The Over/Under has been bet down from an opener of 44 to 43. Two decent defenses and uncertain offenses, plus a light chance for rain. This is likely to be one of the lightest bet Thursday nighters of the season. Though, THE NFL IS KING…so there will still be more interest in this than other Thursday night sports attractions.
EAST CAROLINA AT CENTRAL FLORIDA (on ESPN): If you haven’t been paying attention to the American Athletic Conference this season…you might be surprised at how bad things have gotten for these teams. We have two traditional contenders who went to bowls last year. ESPN was probably sure this would be a compelling game when they scheduled it prior to the season. Central Florida is 0-10! East Carolina is 4-6, and will have to win this game and beat Cincinnati to earn a bowl bid this year. The opener of East Carolina -14.5 has either stood pat or dropped to the key number of -14 depending on the store. This won’t be a heavily bet game even though it’s on ESPN. Looks like a soft tug-of-war developing between value bettors. The Over/Under is down a point from 54.5 to 53.5 with a chance of rain in Florida tonight. Amazing that the NFL has such low-interest franchises right when ESPN is showing an 0-10 team!
LOUISIANA MONROE AT TEXAS STATE (on ESPNU): Brace yourselves. Nobody’s 0-10 here. But, Monroe is 1-9 and Texas State is 2-7! How about a flex schedule for the colleges? Texas State opened at -4.5. They’ve been bet up to -6.5…with some stores testing the key number of seven. Dog money is coming in at the full seven…which could set up another light tug-of-war between value bettors. Texas State backers will lay -6.5 or better, then Monroe money comes in at +7. The total has dropped a bunch from an opener of 65.5 down to 62.5. Weather isn’t supposed to be a factor, so that’s a quant move.
CINCINNATI AT SOUTH FLORIDA (ON CBS Sports Network): We have to wait for Friday to see a winning team. This is a battle of bowl-bound 6-4 entries…so we should at least have a compelling game. Cincinnati opened at -3, but has dropped to -2 off support for the home underdog. The opening total of 62 is up to 64. And, that’s despite a forecast for more rain in Florida and slightly breezier conditions than Thursday. Cincinnati tends to play shootouts win or lose. Note that South Florida has a chance to win the AAC East if they can score the small upset here…then beat currently winless Central Florida next week…while Temple loses to Memphis this Saturday. USF is 4-2, Temple 5-1, but USF won head-to-head to earn the tie-breaker.
AIR FORCE AT BOISE STATE (on ESPN2): Big game in the “Mountain” Division of the Mountain West Conference. Air Force is currently 5-1 in league play, while Boise State fell to 4-2 with that stunning loss as a 30-point favorite over New Mexico last week. Boise State is still in the divisional driver’s seat as favorites of -12 here. But, the opener was -14…meaning strong support for the road dog…at a site where the favorite usually gets bet. Sharps were very happy to take the key number of +14…and were still betting the visiting Falcons at +13. The total is down from 57 to 55. Liking Air Force typically correlates with an Under since they run clock with their option attack. We should have freezing temperatures right around 30 on the blue turf.
If you can make it through Thursday…at least Friday’s games have bowl caliber teams playing with something at stake.
My top selections against game day odds can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card on game day. Look for my best in football and basketball as we gear up for another huge weekend. If you have any questions about long term packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours Thursday or Friday…or before the early football kicks off Saturday or Sunday.
Thanks for reading. See you Friday at lunchtime to look at Saturday’s college football marquee matchups (like Michigan State/Ohio State, TCU/Oklahoma, Baylor/Oklahoma State, and Notre Dame at Boston College). It’s going to start slow…but business will really pick up over the weekend!
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