Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, November 18, 2015 at 7:00 PM
If you’ve been watching ESPN a lot the past few days, you may be starting to get the idea that there are only a handful of teams who are playing college football right now. Segment after segment on SportsCenter is about the championship tournament poll. They even used halftime of a BASKETBALL doubleheader to announce this week’s rankings. Sorry fans of Kansas and Michigan State…sorry fans of Kentucky who want to watch a recap of your big win over Duke…we’re going to yak about whether Notre Dame, Iowa, or Oklahoma State has the best chance to finish fourth.
You know what? It could turn out that neither of those teams finish fourth depending on what Stanford, Iowa’s opponent in the Big 10 championship game, and Oklahoma (or Baylor) have to say about matters.
As a viewer, I hate this. What a waste of time and energy. The race can be summed up in about 10 minutes…not 10 hours a day every day!
But, as a sports bettor, KELSO STURGEON LOVES THIS. It keeps the public and oddsmakers (who all watch way too much television instead of studying teams) from paying attention to all the other games.
Do you have a schedule for Saturday handy? I’ve got the Nevada rotation right here. Louisville-Pittsburgh, Buffalo-Akron, Georgia Southern-Georgia, Rutgers-Army, Charlotte-Kentucky, Indiana-Maryland. It takes awhile before you get to a team that’s even involved in the discussion. And, of course, the bulk of the day’s schedule has nothing to do with the national championship.
Handicapping November football only has a little to do with the national championship picture! There are still conference races to resolve…rivalries to renew…towels to toss for losing teams…qualifying for bowls as up-and-comers try to get that sixth win. And, at the heart of it all when it comes to picking winners…
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
Typically, at this time of year, I have major releases that strike me as virtual locks. You’ll hear me talking about “100% to win the game straight up and 90% to cover” based on my indicators. And, these are almost never in the big TV games that everyone’s watching. Those are well-lined because oddsmakers and the public have followed the teams closely. Maybe you have a 75% straight up win scenario and a 65% cover scenario. Still worth playing. But, not as big as the edges I always find in “game of the year” caliber releases in matchups that are way off the hype radar.
So, you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping should take that to heart and really study the mid-major conferences this week…and major conference games not involving divisional contenders. Try to find:
*Mismatches in motivation, where one team obviously cares about the result and the other is just playing out its season…or is looking ahead to a big rivalry game the next week.
*Mismatches in talent where one team is likely to light up the scoreboard against an opponent that’s been racked by injuries to its PLAYMAKERS. There are a few quarterbacks on the field this weekend who have little chance to lead their teams to touchdowns. Do you know who those quarterbacks are?
*Teams in LETDOWN spots who are coming off a peak result that they aren’t likely to duplicate. The last thing you want to do is bet on teams to play great two weeks in a row in mid-November. You want to look for spots where you can fade them after a big effort.
*Teams in FATIGUE spots who are going to run out of gas because they’ve just played some physical games and haven’t had a bye week in more than a month. This can be a great angle to pursue against teams with poor defenses. They just stop tackling once the energy is gone. Try to spend some time scanning each team’s schedule so you know how many weeks they’ve played “in a row” entering this Saturday.
This is all stuff the TV networks should be talking about…but aren’t. Thank goodness! More free points for us as we try to crush the sportsbooks.
If you’d like some help finding the best college football bets on the card (or across the full football and basketball schedules), you can purchase BEST BETS from KELSO STURGEON right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. It’s a big weekend in football AND basketball…so please check out my combination packages.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. I’ve given you a lot of homework today for this weekend’s colleges. Back in a few days to talk about the NFL. Get to work!
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters