Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, November 16, 2015 at 4:00 PM
As promised, I’m back with our first college basketball discussion of the new season. You may have watched some games on TV already. If you’re any kind of Las Vegas sports bettor, you’ll definitely be watching the TV doubleheader Tuesday night featuring Kentucky vs. Duke and Kansas vs. Michigan State that will be played in Chicago. Even if you’re not betting, you should be scouting those four important teams at the very least!
What’s the best way to beat college basketball in November? Here are some guidelines for you regular students of my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping.
*First, try NOT to bet unless you really love a pick. This won’t be a problem for most of you who are still buried in football. But, if you’re the type of bettor who LOVES college basketball and considers it your specialty…you’re probably chomping at the bit to get involved. That’s only going to work if you focus on the handful of things you know best:
Your favorite team (or teams)
Your local conference
Special angles you like to employ
Maybe there are certain coaches you like to bet on or against in November because you know their past early-season history. Maybe there are certain travel situations you like to exploit when players are in danger of getting jet lag. Fine…focus on those. Just don’t start betting 10-15 games because you have delusions of grandeur about your basketball knowledge. Too many egomaniacs in this field already. Discipline matters most early in a new season (in any sport) because the buffet table is jam-packed with goodies and your eyes are bigger than your stomach.
*Second, do extensive research to get a read on team experience. I personally like focusing on teams who ended the prior season well AND return most or all of their key talent. This is more likely in the mid-majors than in the big time because of the one-and-done rule. That’s fine, easy money if you do the work. You should already have bought at least one of the preseason annuals at your local newsstand or bookstore. Or, you should have already been combing the internet for this information. If you haven’t done this yet…you now know your homework for the next few days.
Find experienced quality teams you can back
Find inexperienced overpriced teams who will likely struggle in transition
Look particularly for matchups where one of those plays the other
Happens every year…oddsmakers underestimate the value of experience, and overestimate how “name” teams will perform when they have a lot of new starters.
*Third, watch as many games as you can to get a feel for the new season. I understand that this is difficult on Saturdays and Sundays when football is in full swing. Fine…try to catch at least one game every weeknight. Maybe DVR a game or two each night so you can watch quickly the next afternoon while racing through the commercials. November is a time for conservative betting and aggressive research!
*Fourth, study the MARKET! The general public doesn’t bet much early season college basketball. That means that oddsmakers are announcing their own Power Ratings to you whenever they post an opener (allot 3-4 points for home court advantage as a general rule). And, then the “sharps” are announcing their Power Ratings by betting against those openers. Line moves are ONLY caused by sharp action at this time of year. Therefore, any move off an opener can be considered sharp. Develop your own team ratings by watching what the oddsmakers and pro bettors are doing…and then tweaking once the final scores are in. This is a great way to get up to speed if you don’t have time to follow all the teams closely. Follow the guys who do and learn from them!
Boy…that’s plenty of homework for you this week! Get caught up, watch as many games as you can, and study the markets closely. Too much? Look…it’s probably a SMART move for many of you to stay focused on football until January…then work your way into the baskets. Nothing worse than winning smart football picks over the weekend then losing back much of what you earned with basketball leans. But, if you want to succeed in college basketball, following today’s guidance is crucial. Be super-conservative with your action until you’ve proven you’re better than the market. Work hard to get up to speed.
If you’d like some help supplementing your portfolio, you can purchase BEST BETS from KELSO STURGEON right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Obviously this is an ideal time to talk about combination packages.
See you again in a couple of days with what will very likely be another football report. Big stuff happening this weekend in the colleges and the pro’s. The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. In a way, it feels like the work never ends. That’s the life of a Las Vegas bettor! If that’s your dream, you must do what it takes to make it come true.
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
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