Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, November 14, 2015 at 3:00 PM
The Arizona Cardinals are off to a great 6-2 start that has them on the short list of potential champions of the NFC and NFL. They go on the road this Sunday night to take on the two-time defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks in what is clearly one of the most important pro football games of the 2015 season.
*If Arizona wins, they’d have a monstrous THREE-game lead over Seattle in the NFC West, virtually assuring them the division title and possibly keeping Seattle from even earning a Wildcard.
*If Arizona loses, then it’s tougher to believe that they’ve really surpassed the Seahawks in this division. It’s one thing to catch the league by surprise while another “sleeping” power is coasting until crunch time. It’s another to win big games on the ROAD in NOVEMBER against your most important foes.
You’re going to watch the best game of the week Sunday night on NBC. Let’s see what JIM HURLEY’S key indicator stats to see what they say about this showcase showdown…
Won-Lost Records (Strength of Schedule)
Arizona: 6-2 (#31 ranked schedule according to Sagarin)
Seattle: 4-4 (#11 ranked schedule according to Sagarin)
Very important information right off the bat. Arizona has a two-game lead. But if the teams had played identical schedules, we may be looking at a dead heat. In fact, Seattle might have the better record! Now, this doesn’t mean Arizona is a pretender. But…you have to wait for a meaningful sample size against QUALITY teams before assuming that greatness is on the way.
Arizona: 6.7 on offense, 5.1 on defense
Seattle: 5.5 on offense, 4.8 on defense
A lot to like there for both teams. Arizona has established that they can at the very least run up big stats on weak teams. They DOMINATE bad teams with a high powered offense and a stingy defense. Seattle’s +0.7 differential is excellent considering they’ve played an above-average schedule. Some close losses have turned what might be a 5-3 or better record into 4-4. The YPP differential is a reminder that this is still a legitimate Super Bowl threat even if they seem to have lost a step and some swagger in 2015.
Disappointing. Arizona at only +3 through half a season against a very weak schedule is a strike against them rather than a vote for them. Championship contenders do much better in the risk/reward area against soft opposition. Seattle’s minus two is a reminder that this defense doesn’t bully people the way they used to. They still force punts. They no longer intimidate in quite the same way.
Arizona: 5-3 ATS (6-2 to the Over)
Seattle: 2-5-1 ATS (3-5 to the Under)
No surprises there. Arizona was underrated by the markets because people forgot that Carson Palmer can put up big numbers when he’s healthy and facing bad defenses! That’s why we included the Over/Under mark with them. Betting Arizona and Over on a weekly basis in Las Vegas would have yielded an 11-5 record. Seattle’s just the opposite. A quiet offense that’s really struggled in the red zone is showing a 10-5-1 betting record for people betting the Seahawks and Under every week. We can deduce from this that both teams will be fighting to impose their style on proceedings…and whoever succeeds will likely drive a side and total combo.
Current Line: Seattle by 3, total of 45
The market sees the teams as even given the standard value of home field advantage. Though, Seattle often gets 3.5 points because of their twelfth man. So…perhaps Arizona is seen as a half-point better amongst pro wagerers. YOU have to determine how the complex possibilities are most likely to play out. Can Palmer have a big game in the air on the road against the stingy Seattle defense? Can Russell Wilson finally figure out how to close drives in 2015 after struggling so badly? The “best” of Seattle can still win by double digits on this field if they can recapture their past glory. If the door is shut on that version of the Seahawks, then Arizona wins outright.
JIM HURLEY knows you want to win this big TV game…and he’ll do whatever it takes to figure out the right way to play it! You can purchase the final word for all Sunday action on game day right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155 before the early games begin.
Back with you tomorrow for this week’s Monday Night Football preview. Here’s what’s coming up in the NOTEBOOK...
Monday: NFL TV Preview…Houston at Cincinnati
Midweek: NFL TV Preview…Tennessee at Jacksonville
Friday-Saturday: College Football TV Preview…Michigan State at Ohio State
Sunday: NFL TV Preview…Cincinnati at Arizona
Arizona will be on NBC again next Sunday night. We may be talking about what an obvious letdown spot that is in our coming preview! The merry-go-round keeps spinning faster and faster with all the football and now basketball at the Las Vegas carnival. Be sure you WIN ALL THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!
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