Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, November 13, 2015 at 4:00 PM
Every NFL team has now played at least half of its 2016 schedule. The market is fairly confident of its read on all 32 teams. Major moves in the market from this point forward will largely be connected to major injuries or unique situational dynamics that pop up from time to time.
Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the Week 10 card. The four teams with byes this week are Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, and San Francisco. Games are presented in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The tall opener of Green Bay -12 has dropped down a half a point. Detroit is coming in fresh off a bye and a management house cleaning. Green Bay has a potent attack that enters the game off consecutive losses. Old school sharps who like taking every double digit dog figured +12 was the best they were going to see given Green Bay’s slump. We’ll see how the public bets over the weekend. Squares are more likely to lay a big number with a team on a roll (like New England) than a team that just lost a couple of big TV games. The Over/Under is up from an opener of 48 to 49. I’ll only mention totals in games where they’ve moved at least a point off the opener. Note that it’s going to be a balmy 55 degrees for this November kick in Green Bay. Weather isn’t expected to be an issue over most of the weekend card.
DALLAS AT TAMPA BAY: Not much betting interest here because the public doesn’t trust the Dallas backup quarterbacks or Jameis Winston of Tampa Bay. An opener of Tampa Bay -1 has been bet up to -1.5 or -2 depending on the store. In that price range, Dallas will be a popular choice in two-team teasers where the six-point move will cross both the three and the seven. Dallas is coming off a tough overtime loss in a Sunday nighter. Will that eventually inspire some weekend steam on the ugly home favorite?
CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE: Carolina opened at -6.5. The home dog is getting a look from sharps because they played so well at New Orleans last week after a coaching change…and because Carolina is coming off three straight high profile victories (Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Green Bay). Situational guys like the Titans. But, the number has only dropped to +5.5 so there hasn’t really been a bandwagon effect. The Over/Under of 42.5 is up to 44 because Marcos Mariota moved the ball so well last week, and Carolina’s defense has been showing signs of fatigue late in recent games.
CHICAGO AT ST. LOUIS: St. Louis is painted at -7 as I write this. They opened on the key number…then spent some time over the key number until Chicago impressed Monday night in San Diego. I’m guessing we’ll stay on the seven through the weekend. Any public move in either direction would likely be pushed back to the key number by the Wise guys. Though…sharp teaser players would like to see the Rams move to -7.5 so they can play St. Louis -1.5 in two-teamers.
NEW ORLEANS AT WASHINGTON: The market is trying to decide between pick-em and New Orleans -1. The Saints were starting to get some respect until they lost to lowly Tennessee last week. Washington continues to be a mediocrity that’s difficult to trust. Not sensing a lot of passion here. We may have a soft tug-of-war between those prices from small betting segments looking for value. The “New Orleans shouldn’t be favored on the road over anybody” faction will take Washington +1, while the “How can Drew Brees be pick-em vs. Kirk Cousins” faction will take the Saints to win straight up.
MIAMI AT PHILADELPHIA: Nothing happening on the team side, where Philadelphia is still -6. Barring any surprises, I’d expect sharps to fade any public moves off the six. The total has moved up from 47 to 49 because Miami has opened things up offensively just as Philadelphia’s offense is starting to find some balance. Miami played to 50 in Buffalo last week while Philadelphia was at 54 at the end of regulation in Dallas.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh is getting some support, as an opener of -4.5 is up to -5 (some stores testing -5.5). We’re in that quiet space between key numbers…and it’s a quarterback battle of Johnny Manziel vs. Landry Jones. That takes much of the luster off the game, and keeps it from being something the general public would flock to. Not really a lot this week on the early card that will get the public’s juices flowing.
JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE: Same story here in terms of being a yawner between the critical numbers. Baltimore opened at -6. Jacksonville money dropped that to Jaguars +5.5. The big news here is on the Over/Under…where an opener of 50 has come down to 47.5 Weather isn’t currently expected to be a factor. So, that’s a quant move. Baltimore had a bye last week, so there may be an expectation from quants that a fresher Ravens defense will create more of a smash mouth game.
MINNESOTA AT OAKLAND: Moving to the late starts…we have our first look at potential weather. There’s some rain in the forecast…which may be common in California games through November in an El Nino year. To this point, that weather hasn’t affected the line though. Oakland is still 3 and 44. Oddsmakers correctly anticipated Oakland interest from sharps and priced against it from the outset. Home field advantage is worth three points…so the market is rating these teams as even despite the fact that Oakland is 4-4 and Minnesota is 6-2.
KANSAS CITY AT DENVER: The situational guys really liked Kansas City here. The Chiefs are coming in off a bye week and have revenge from an early season home game they choked away in the final seconds. Plus, Denver finally showed some mortality last week in a loss at Indianapolis. The opener of Denver -7 was bet down to KC +6. Some stores are testing +5.5 because Chiefs money keeps coming in. Will the public take Denver over the weekend? Squares lost huge on Denver last week because they thought Indy would be exhausted off a Monday night overtime game. The public may not want to go down that well again.
NEW ENGLAND AT NY GIANTS: We have a tug-of-war shaping up between New England -7 and the NY Giants +7.5. It’s easy to like the Patriots at the key number because they keep rolling over people. And, the public has shown they’ll ride the Tom Brady bandwagon in prior years where this kind of streak has happened. But, situational guys like the Giants as a home dog because Tom Coughlin has shown his defenses can disrupt Brady…and because Eli Manning is a quarterback who can cover clean or come through the back door in garbage time. Any time New England is at -7.5…sharp teaser players will include the Pats at -1.5 in their teasers.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: The opener of Seattle -3.5 was bet down to the key number of three. Arizona is very respected in sharp circles (perhaps too much)…and this is obviously seen as a statement spot for the up-and-comer in the NFC West. The public does like betting Seattle though at cheap prices. That could set up a tug-of-war through the day Sunday where squares lay the field goal but sharps take the dog with the hook. I expect this to be a very heavily bet game because the daytime card isn’t particularly loaded…and this is a high profile divisional matchup that could also be a playoff preview. There’s currently a slight chance for rain. If that chance increases…or if the rain is going to be hard, I would expect the total of 45 to come down at least a point.
HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI: Houston is getting respect off a bye week, as the opening line of +12 is down to +10.5. The old school guys who like all double digit dogs really like taking a refreshened visitor against a possibly flat home favorite. The public is more likely to take the undefeated host that just won for them over Cleveland. We’ll have to wait until Monday to see what dynamic that creates in the marketplace.
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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend! See you on Tuesday for our next Super Bowl Futures report. I’ll do my best to include the college football championship picture as well now that we’ve reached the last few weeks of the regular season. Such a great time to be in the middle of the betting markets!
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