Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, November 12, 2015 at 9:32 AM
NFL WEEK 10 KICKS OFF TONIGHT WITH BILLS-JETS IN REX REUNION IN JERSEY ...
PLUS KEY COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEWS INCLUDING #12 OKLAHOMA AT #6 BAYLOR
Just a few days back here at Jim Sez we posted the game-by-game results in NFL Monday Night Football this year and told you that MNF Betting Favorites were getting toasted - chalk sides now are actually 2-8 against the Las Vegas prices in these games following Chicago's come-from-behind 22-19 win at 3.5-point fav San Diego. Well, that got us to thinking we should do the same fact-checking with NFL Thursday Night Football and so here's the week-by-week/game-by-game results while heading into tonight's much-hyped tilt between the Buffalo Bills at the New York Jets:
(Note all Thursday Night Home Teams are in CAPS below):
|1||NEW ENGLAND||- 7||Pittsburgh||28-21|
|2||Denver||+ 3||KANSAS CITY||31-24|
|3||NY GIANTS||- 3||Washington||32-21|
|4||Baltimore||- 3||PITTSBURGH||23-20 (ot)|
|6||NEW ORLEANS||+ 3||Atlanta||31-21|
|7||Seattle||- 6.5||SAN FRAN||20-3|
|8||NEW ENGLAND||- 8||Miami||36-7|
Okay, so unlike Monday Night Football where Betting Favorites have been downright rotten thus far, the chalk sides are 4-3-2 spreadwise on Thursday Night Football (but riding a three-game spread winning streak!) and note that home teams are also 4-3-2 versus the Las Vegas prices - if anything it shows that all this talk that road teams "don't cover" when playing on these short weeks is a myth. The short week with travel would figure to be a real disadvantage for road sides in NFL-land but Denver, Indianapolis and Seattle all won/covered as Thursday Night Football roadies ... so what 'ya gonna do tonight, Buffalo Bills?
NFL WEEK 10
BUFFALO (4-4) at NEW YORK JETS (5-3) - 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Rex Ryan Yak-a-Thon likely will take us right to kickoff - enough already, right? - but the news on the field figures to be more about who's healthy and who's not as the Jets' offensive line could be a problem if C Nick Mangold (neck) isn't close to 100 percent and the NYJ secondary is pretty much in tatters too save for all-world CB Darrelle Revis who has been no better than a "B" player this year.
Buffalo is a 2.5-point dog for this AFC East clash but if Bills' RB LeSean "Shady" McCoy (see 112 yards rushing and one score in last weekend's easy 33-17 win/cover versus Miami) and WR Sammy Watkins (8 receptions for 168 yards and one TD versus the Fish) are their stat-sheet stuffing selves, then you might be tempted at night's end to say they had the "wrong team favored".
Spread Notes - The J-E-T-S are a dead-even but vig-losing 4-4 ATS (against the spread) so far this year under new boss Todd Bowles but they are 9-5 spreadwise in divisional games the past two-plus seasons. On the flip side, Buffalo is also 4-4 against the odds this season but note the Bills are a collective 8-3 ATS as underdogs the past year-and-change.
My handicappers and bloggers have everything all scoped out and you can get the NFL Week 10 Side & Totals winners beginning with tonight's game between the Buffalo Bills at the New York Jets when you check with us here at the red-hot Jim Hurley's Network and then keep rollin' in the green all week/weekend long with all the NCAA Football, the NFL, the NBA and now NCAA Basketball too! There's College Football this evening too with a pair of TV games including Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) and UL-Lafayette at South Alabama (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU) and don't forget it's USC at Colorado tomorrow night (9 p.m. ET on espn2). And remember there's loads of season-opening College Basketball action on tap on Friday including Temple versus #1 North Carolina (from Annapolis) and Texas versus Washington (from China). Check with us on game days either here online or at our toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 - pile up the profits this November!
NCAA FOOTBALL PREVIEWS
Let's zip 'round the land and get you some key previews and note the rankings reflect the current College Football Playoff picture:
#12 OKLAHOMA (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) at #6 BAYLOR (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) - 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Get the feeling that Baylor head coach Art Briles and Company are champing at the proverbial bit to show those CFP committee folks what they're really all about? No doubt Briles played it diplomatically when interviewed during Tuesday's CFP show on ESPN but he's not happy to be sitting there at #6 with a pair of one-loss teams (see Alabama and Notre Dame) above 'em on the food chain. If Baylor frosh QB Jarrett Stidham (419 yards passing and three TDs in last Thursday's 31-24 non-cover win against 17-point dog Kansas State) can light up Oklahoma here, then Baylor - just a 3-point home favorite for this titanic clash - could slip into that "first four" group and recent history shows the Bears have the OU number with back-to-back wins by a composite score of 89-26.
On the flip side, Oklahoma must do something here to contain our Heisman Trophy front-runner WR Corey Coleman and the best remedy figures to be a ball-control game plan starring Sooners' RB Samaje Perine - if Perine gets 150-plus rushing yards here, then Bob Stoops' crew will snag the mild upset win in Waco.
Spread Notes - Baylor is 36-20 against the odds overall since the start of the 2011 season and that includes four consecutive pointspread wins against Oklahoma. Note the OU Sooners roar into this tilt on a four-game ATS winning streak and owners of a spiffy 7-2 spread mark this year.
#2 ALABAMA (8-1, 5-1 SEC) at #17 MISS STATE (7-2, 3-2 SEC) - 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Don't be so dang quick to put the 'Bama Crimson Tide into this year's College Football Playoff picture: There's still SEC road games here in Starkville and then at Auburn (Nov. 28th) plus Florida looms in the SEC Championship Game early next month.
So, with the margin of error at zero for the one-loss Tide, Nick Saban's team looks to get after it on "D" where LB Reggie Ragland and mates look to silence QB Dak Prescott. Note that Alabama picked 'em off three times last year but Prescott's wiser and better right now and if he can locate downfield stud WR De'Runnya Wilson (two TD catches in last week's 31-13 win against Missouri) then this could be a real nail-biter even if Alabama RB Derrick Henry (210 yards rushing against LSU last Saturday night) has a big game.
Spread Notes - Alabama is 25-16 ATS in SEC affairs dating back to the start of the 2011 season while Miss State is a solid 6-3 against the odds this year and 20-13 ATS overall the past two-plus seasons.
#3 OHIO STATE (9-0, 5-0 Big 10) at ILLINOIS (5-4, 2-3 Big 10) - 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Now the Buckeyes know how the 2014 Florida State team felt! The defending champs are not #1 in the CFP rankings despite the perfect SU (straight-up) record but at least Urban Meyer's guys didn't sink in the rankings off last week's unimpressive 28-14 non-cover win against 24-point pup Minnesota - the big news is J.T. Barrett is back as the starting quarterback after a one-game suspension and RB Ezekiel Elliott is gunning for a 15th straight 100-yard rushing game. Ohio State's in search of a 16th straight road win but covering that 16-point price may not be easy - after all, the 'Eyes are 2-6 ATS when laying more than 15 points this season.
Spread Notes - Ohio State is a disappointing 3-6 against the odds this year and overall the Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS away since the start of last season. Illinois is 5-4 ATS overall this year but just 14-23 vig-wise in Big 10 play the past four-plus years.
MINNESOTA (4-5, 1-4 Big 10) at #5 IOWA (9-0, 5-0 Big 10) - 8 p.m. ET, Big 10 Network
It's true ... there's not much flash-and-dash coming from this unbeaten Iowa Hawkeyes team but consider that Kirk Ferentz's squad is ninth in the land in rushing defense (101.4 yards per game) and consider the 'Eyes don't beat themselves as underrated QB C.J. Beathard has thrown just three picks and lost only one fumble. Now, Iowa - a 12.5-point (and growing) betting favorite here must tune out its many vocal critics and get a little revenge here after Minny slugged the Hawkeyes 51-14 last year in the Twin Cities.
Spread Notes - Iowa is 3-5-1 spreadwise in head-to-head duels with Minnesota the past nine years but note the Hawkeyes are 6-3 ATS overall this season but just 2-3 ATS as hosts. Minnesota is 4-5 ATS overall this year but a solid 20-13 ATS overall the past two-plus seasons.
OREGON (6-3, 4-2 Pac-12) at #7 STANFORD (8-1, 7-0 Pac-12) - 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Are the Stanford Cardinal "sitting in the weeds" here ... or are they a sleeping giant that is coming together at the right time? David Shaw's crew has won eight in a row by 20 points per game and, while RB Christian McCaffrey averages a nation-best 242 all-purpose yards per game, it's the consistent play of veteran QB Kevin Hogan and that stepped-up defense (ranks 24th in the country in rush defense) that's the major sub-title here ... and remember the winner of this Oregon vs. Stanford game has won the Pac-12 crown in each of the past five years.
Note that Stanford opened as an 8.5-point betting favorite and it's climbed to 10 points ... the last time the Ducks were a twin-digit underdog was back in 2008 versus USC.
Spread Notes - Stanford is 7-1 versus the vig since that painful season-opening 16-6 loss at Northwestern. Meanwhile, Oregon enters this Pac-12 bash riding a three-game spread winning streak and note the Ducks are 12-4 ATS in league games since the start of last season.
Note: Catch our NFL Week 10 previews in the next couple of Jim Sez columns!