Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, November 10, 2015 at 11:00 AM
The Green Bay Packers were being priced as a virtual lock to win the NFC as recently as two weeks ago. They were well clear of the field up at around +300 to win the Super Bowl. Their undefeated start through six games didn’t just suggest dominance…but it positioned the Packers to have home field advantage through the NFC brackets. They were the best NFC team…AND they were going to have a huge home field playoff edge in January.
Now…fresh on the heels of BAD losses at Denver and Carolina…the Packers have the look of a team that can only run up the score on also-rans before getting outclassed by the true elites. It’s not like they lost competitive games to these other good teams.
*Denver beat GB 29-10, with a 500-140 advantage in total yardage.
*Carolina beat GB 37-29, with a 427-402 advantage in total yardage that was misleadingly close because of garbage time. Carolina led 37-14 early in the fourth quarter, with a yardage edge at the time of roughly 400-250. (That means the Packers had a stretch where they were down 66-24 on the scoreboard through a little over seven quarters!)
Clearly the Green Bay defense has troubles vs. other playoff caliber teams. And, Aaron Rodgers loses accuracy when consistently pressured. Maybe they’re not a true championship threat after all based on those last two results.
As we look at the new composite odds from Nevada and offshore, the Packers are still frontrunners in the NFC. But, their margin for error is gone. Plus, home field advantage may soon be out of reach as well with a two-game deficit (and a lost tie-breaker) to Carolina.
(If this is your first time reading one of my Futures articles, these are based on $100 bets. So, a $100 bet on New England would win $225 if they win the Super Bowl…a $100 bet on Arizona would win $1,400)
ODDS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL (still a 7-team race)
New England +225 (slight improvement from +250 last week)
Green Bay +550 (down from +350 last week, and +300 prior)
Carolina +700 (big jump from +1000)
Cincinnati +800 (flip-flop with Denver after the Broncos lost at Indy)
Denver +900 (down from +800 last week)
New England still leads the way in the AFC, as they continue unblemished through eight games. No changes for Seattle and Arizona because both had byes last week, and then play each other this Sunday night. The winner of that game will likely jump into a three-team race with Green Bay and Carolina in the NFC. Arizona is 6-2 now…and would be a stout 7-2 should they score a road win in Seattle. The Seahawks would move to 5-4 if they win that game…and the two-time defending conference champs are still getting respect from the market in terms of what’s ahead.
Let’s look at the next rung…
Philadelphia +2200 (improving from +2800 after a win in Dallas)
Indianapolis +2200 (huge leap from +4000 after dismantling Denver)
Minnesota +2500 (improving from +3300 after surviving St. Louis)
Pittsburgh, NY Giants +3300
Atlanta +4000 (sinking fast off recent losses)
NY Jets +5000
St. Louis +6600
New Orleans, Oakland +8000 (both dip after losing last week)
The market wants to put Philadelphia and Indianapolis back in the title mix because they were so highly regarded entering the 2015 season. The Colts finally started looking like themselves in that win over Denver. Andrew Luck didn’t throw any interceptions. And, the team converted 60% of their third down tries. Philadelphia was less impressive in their OT win at Dallas. Without a pick six they might have lost in regulation to the 2-6 Cowboys.
Buffalo, Dallas, Kansas City +10000
Baltimore, Miami Washington +20000
Kansas City can jump a category if they upset Denver on the road this week to get to 4-5. Buffalo has a big game Thursday against the Jets where a road upset would push them to 5-4. Still, not many takers for Tyrod Taylor in terms of Super Bowl dreams.
Jacksonville, San Diego, San Francisco Tampa Bay, Tennessee +50000
Cleveland, Detroit +75000
Only development with this last group is that San Diego fell down to the basement with that Monday night loss to the Bears. Well, San Francisco winning with Blaine Gabbert is kind of a development! Too little too late for the Niners…and probably not a sign of big things because Gabbert’s stats weren’t very good.
When we first started this Tuesday Futures project, I was afraid the Patriots and Packers were going to make it a boring season. Not the story any more. A seven-team race is better than a two-team race. And, there are real question marks now in the NFC.
We resume our regular late-week schedule on Thursday…
Lunchtime Thursday: How Sharps are Betting Thursday/Friday Football
Lunchtime Friday: How Sharps are Betting College Football Marquee Matchups
Dinnertime Friday: How Sharps are Betting Sunday/Monday NFL
I probably won’t write up any notes on the basketball markets for a few weeks. But, you can purchase my top nightly plays in the NBA (and soon, college hoops) right here at the website with your credit card. It’s a great way to build some bankroll for a new football weekend. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during regular business hours.
Thanks for reading this week’s futures report. Hope the future sees YOU returning back for those sharps reports in a few days. See you Thursday.
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