Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 at 5:00 PM
Ken Whisenhunt was just fired as head coach of the Tennessee Titans. That’s the continuation of a trend that’s going to cost a lot of smart bettors a lot of money if it continues. Management (or college administrations) won’t allow teams to give up on their coaches in midseason!
In the past…you’d see a team throw in the towel…and you could bet against two, three, maybe even four more times in obvious tank spots before the end of the season. You didn’t even have to worry about the pointspread because the blowouts were so big. Think about what happened to the Miami Dolphins in London. Complete no-show. Miami saw the same thing happen in the colleges with Al Golden. What an embarrassing performance against Clemson!
Coaches were fired, and both Miami teams bounced back strong with great results. The Dolphins crushed a couple of teams. The Hurricanes upset Duke on the road last week…and would have covered the spread even if not for that crazy touchdown on the game’s final play.
Will Tennessee start to get things done without Whisenhunt in the way? That remains to be seen. It’s tough to win in pro football with a rookie quarterback, or a shaky backup like Zach Mettenberger. I’ll say this…the offense is likely to play at least a little better because it couldn’t play any worse!
I understand the trend toward earlier firings. Programs and franchises hate bad publicity (much more instant and viral in the age of social media)…and hate losing all the money that comes in from game tickets and merchandise. Nobody wants to buy jerseys of laughingstock teams. Boosters sure weren’t going to donate any more to the Miami Hurricanes until changes were made. They ran out of patience last year.
I guess we Las Vegas bettors should appreciate what we had. Those auto-fades and free money won’t be there with the same magnitude moving forward. But…it’s not like the door is entirely shut on this strategy. We can still exploit the “Lack” of Motivation Factor.
*Many college teams in smaller conferences won’t fire a coach midseason because they’re so cash poor they’d rather just have the losing coach fill out his contract. There’s less pressure here because media scrutiny isn’t as intense with smaller programs.
*Some major college teams won’t do that as well because the Athletic Director has such a big ego. He doesn’t want to admit he made a mistake with the initial hiring! For some reason, firing a coach midseason reflects on management…but firing a coach after a bad season reflects on the coach. If a team goes 2-10 in the colleges or 2-14 in the NFL…it’s the coach’s fault. If a team is betting blasted in October, management or the administration has to make public apologies.
*A handful of NFL teams each season are losing on purpose in November and December for draft picks. They WANT to keep losing. So the last thing they’d want to do is to inspire the players or bring in a new “get-things-done-now” kind of head coach. YOU should start paying attention to that here in 2015…as the race for the #1 draft pick is about to begin.
*Don’t forget about handicapping the NBA! The great thing about the NBA is that sour coaching situations can provide several winners because teams play 3-4 games each week. This intense schedule helps smart bettors exploit the dynamic for big profit before a change is made. No team wants to fire a coach two weeks into a new season…even though it’s pretty obvious already that some coaches are on the way out. Even if you don’t like handicapping the baskets until football is over…you should at least try to keep abreast of this particular angle. It’s easy to do…just look at the standings and ATS records!
I won’t tell you here whether or not I’ll be looking at Tennessee or New Orleans in their game this Sunday. I was definitely thinking about the Saints before Whisenhunt was canned! But, I’m still confident I’ll find great options for big play releases across the full football (and basketball) schedules. If you’d like to supplement your own do-it-yourself portfolio with KELSO STURGEON’S top plays, you can always purchase those right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Don’t forget to ask about the new NBA season when you call.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates the attendance and hard work of all of you who regularly attend my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. I’ll be back with you again at the end of the week to talk more football. I’ll try to fit in our first NBA discussion of the new season next week. I know that football is king for most gamblers…but SMART bettors attack edges wherever they appear on the board.
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Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
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