Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, November 2, 2015 at 4:00 PM
The Mid American Conference is about to become an important part of your handicapping experience. There are games Tuesday and Wednesday of this week…and midweek action will continue from that league throughout the month of November. It was the only way they could get any exclusive TV time!
You’re in luck that the games the next two nights are important ones that feature decent teams. Much better for you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping to get up to speed while watching quality rather than the dregs of this particular league. The bad teams in the MAC are REALLY bad teams. Here’s your MAC intro this week…
Tuesday: Northern Illinois at Toledo
Wednesday: Ohio at Bowling Green
Toledo is the best team in the West, and the whole MAC. They probably don’t deserve to be in the Top 25 nationally in terms of team talent. Pollsters have them there because they’re undefeated and beat Arkansas on the road in a result everyone remembers. Respected Power Ratings do like Toledo enough to have them in the Top 40 nationally. In most seasons, the best team in the MAC can play with anybody over 60 minutes. So, don’t sleep on Toledo come bowl time. Northern Illinois is arguably second best in the MAC West depending on which ratings you trust.
Bowling Green is best in the East, and made some high profile TV appearances earlier this season. They currently would be a slight neutral field underdog to Toledo in respected ratings. They’ll actually get to host Toledo on Tuesday, November 17 in a potential championship preview. For now…they have to worry about the Ohio Bobcats…a decent choice for second best team in the MAC East.
Today’s coursework is titled “Handicapping the MAC.” This can be a very difficult conference for “traditional” handicappers because the quality of football is so erratic. There have been rumors in not too distant past about fishy things going on here. Toledo actually made headlines when some of those rumors were well-founded. That’s old news for now. But…veteran handicappers like me always bring a little trepidation to the weekly MAC card. We only bet on teams we’re confident are going to bring 100% intensity.
Some quick tips for the MAC…
*First…remember that weaker leagues like this are very much at the mercy of turnovers. You have inconsistent (or just play awful) quarterbacks on many of the teams. They’re mistake-prone in the best of times. If they fall behind and have to force it, things get even worse. Pay very close attention to the quarterback position…and really emphasize “turnover prevention” with each offensive attack. Even the good teams are more turnover prone than you’re used to. The bad teams can have real nightmare games.
*Second, respect the running backs. There are some undersized defenses in this league because the best defensive athletes are picked up by the Big 10 or Notre Dame. Quality running backs can pile up big numbers and carry their teams on their backs. When studying each game…you should look at the top ball carriers for every offense…and look at the rushing-yards-allowed stats on a per-game and per-carry basis. Some great plays will jump off the page if you do that simple assignment. Spend some time when you finish reading this grabbing those year-to-date rush defense numbers for every MAC team.
*Third, pay attention to the weather…particularly in NOVEMBER! In the Midwest, you can have some dreary drizzly (or snowy) days and nights in the MAC. That makes mistake-prone teams even more mistake-prone. That means run-heavy teams even more dominant. And, that can make the wheel of fortune of craziness spin even more erratically. We’ve already seen it this year…and it will happen again…where a team gets outgained by at least 150 yards but wins a blowout because of turnovers in iffy conditions. Don’t bet games in iffy conditions unless you’re supremely confident that your team can excel in those conditions.
I have several other strategies…but I’m going to keep those under wraps because my midweek pay selections will be putting them to great use. I have to protect those releases for my clients!
If you’d like to begin your college football weeks on TUESDAY through the month of November, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Don’t forget to ask about the new NBA season when you call.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. Beating Las Vegas oddmakers is always about keeping your nose to the grindstone in the best of times and the worst of times. Keep an even keel during the highs and lows. Your next big winner is always just around the corner. See you in a couple of days to talk more football!
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