Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, October 30, 2015 at 12:00 PM
Another Saturday that lacks true blockbusters. But, that just means November is going to be LOADED because the major conferences will see their best teams finally running into each other. You can be certain Las Vegas sportsbooks are looking forward to that!
I’ve picked out six games from Saturday’s college footbagll ticket that will be getting most of the betting and TV attention. There are a few time changes. I’ve listed the games in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedule.
CLEMSON AT NC STATE (on ABC or ESPN2): This one has been time changed to 3:30 p.m. ET. Clemson made a real statement last week in Miami. Though, that may have been more about Miami’s players throwing in the towel on their coaching staff. Here’s a chance for the Tigers to prove that they really are a top four team deserving of a playoff spot. They’ll have to avoid a letdown on the road against a talented but erratic opponent. Clemson opened at -10. Stores testing -10.5 see immediate support for the dog. Possibly a tug-of-war on game day between the favorite-loving public on Clemson and sharps on the Wolfpack at anything over the 10. The total has dropped a point from 52 to 51. That’s a slight tweak from the quants because the weather looks like it’s going to be perfect.
STANFORD AT WASHINGTON STATE (on ESPN): Time changed to a very late 10:30 p.m. start on the East Coast, but right in the heart of prime time here in Vegas. Stanford opened at a very high -13 considering how well Wazzou has been performing lately. Sharps jumped right in on the dog rather than waiting to see if +14 came into play. The Wise Guys knew that wasn’t likely. The current number is only Stanford by 11 or 10.5 depending on the store. Pro bettors like Washington State at +11 or better. We haven’t found the spot yet where public interest on a TV favorite turns the money tide. Big move on the Under because of the weather forecast. An opening total of 66 is down to 62 (or lower in some spots). Looks like it’s going to be a rainy game with high winds. That actually favors the smash mouth style of Stanford…so some sharps may start buying back some of their early investments as we get closer to game time.
GEORGIA VS. FLORIDA (in Jacksonville on CBS): This is the midday telecast on CBS. Florida opened at -1…was bet up to as high as -3 before Georgia money started coming in. We’re seeing either -2 or -2.5 across the board as I write this. So…it’s clear that the Wise Guys see value on Florida at less than two…but fairly BIG value on Georgia at this neutral site when the key number of three comes into play. The opening total of 47.5 is down to 46 as quants adjust their formulas because key stars for both teams have been lost for the season in recent weeks.
USC AT CALIFORNIA (on FOX): This one’s been time changed to 3 p.m. ET for FOX, which is an early noon start stadium time. Will USC be awake or bleary-eyed after celebrating their big win over Utah all week? The opener of USC -6.5 has been bet down to -6 or -5.5. That may not seem like a big move…but it is in the opposite direction of the key number of seven. So, we didn’t have position-takers moving early on the favorite for value…we had sharps hitting the dog because they knew other sharps would be coming in on Cal too. Huge move from the quants on the Over, as the opener of 65 is all the way up to 69. Looks like great weather in Berkely…and the Wise Guys are expecting a classic marathon shootout (maybe a replay of Thursday night’s Oregon/ASU game!).
NOTRE DAME AT TEMPLE (on ABC): This the prime time national game on ABC, and the only matchup this weekend matching two teams in the Top 25. Sharps sure don’t believe Temple is a top 25 team! Notre Dame opened at -9.5 as a road favorite…and has been bet all the way up past the key number of 10 to -11. The Wise Guys knew the public would be on the Irish in this TV spot. Sharps jumped in early for value on -9.5 and -10. Though…money still kept coming in at -10.5. Hard to know what number would bring in old school underdog bettors on game day. Might take a dozen. Not much happening on the total, currently at 49.5 or 50.
OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (ESPN): Another game in the midday TV window. Oklahoma State could become a very important TV team in November because they are a Big 12 darkhorse that still has to play all the conference contenders. Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up here between Oklahoma State -2.5 and Texas Tech +3. Some sharps think Okie State is getting disrespected at anything below the three. Competing groups love Tech as a live home underdog when the three is in play. Might turn into a high stakes game where sportsbooks pray the game doesn’t land exactly on the three.
There will be a World Series game Saturday night as well. But, the market won’t have a line up on that one until Friday’s Game Three is in the books. Scheduled pitchers are Young and Matz…though managers have been known to get creative in Game Fours. Note that sweeping the first two games at home pushed he Royals up to around -375 or so to win the series (after starting near pick-em). The return on the Mets is +300 because they have to win four of the last five to be World Champs.
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Back with you late this afternoon for this weekend’s NFL report. Thanks for reading.
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