Submitted by Jim Hurley on Monday, May 7, 2012 at 12:37 PM
We have some interesting matchups and big name pitchers on the Major League Baseball slate Monday. That makes it a great time to step in and check on what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking in the bases.
Games are presented in rotation order. We won’t discuss every single game on the schedule Monday…just the ones that showed clear indicators of sharp preferences. Note that we’ve also consulted with various respected sources while gathering this information so we can provide context for the line moves.
NY METS AT PHILADELPHIA
Sharps have hit the big underdog Mets here with Philadelphia traveling after a Sunday Night TV game in Washington. Roy Halladay opened at -200 over Jon Niese. The line is down to -170 or -180 as we write this around lunchtime Monday. Washington gets the night off by the way. Sharps haven’t been impressed with Philadelphia this year as the team has to win tonight just to reach the .500 mark 30 games into the season. Wise Guys generally like fading high priced teams who aren’t over .500.
MIAMI AT HOUSTON
The last time we checked on baseball, one of the biggest wagering stories of the year was how much sharp support the Miami Marlins were getting out of the gate. They were a huge disappointment in the first few weeks. But, they have rallied back to the .500 mark going into this series in Houston. An opener of Houston -120 has been bet down to pick-em. So, the Marlins are still getting sharp respect!
ATLANTA AT CHICAGO CUBS
We have a move on a total here, as an opener of 7.5 has dropped down to 7. You longtime baseball fans should know what that means. The wind is forecast to be bellowing in from center field. Sharps will bet the Under when that happens without fail. Oddsmakers have always had trouble matching the extremes in this park. Totals are too low when the wind is blowing out. Totals of 7 or even 6.5 are typically too high in games that will end 2-1 or 3-2 in tough scoring conditions. We’re not suggesting YOU have to play this Under. The value may have been bet out of it by the early money. Sharps liked Under 7.5.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA
Some sharps are fading hot Cardinals pitcher Lance Lynn tonight. He opened as a -130 road favorite, but has been bet down to -110 and -130. Why would the Wise Guys fade a hot pitcher? His last four games have come against Pittsburgh and the Chicago Cubs. Lynn will be stepping up in class Monday in a good hitter’s park. We don’t want to suggest that all sharps are anti-Lynn, because he does have a good K-Rate and a low WHIP so far this season. But, an important group did fade him because they think his fast start is largely the result of an easy schedule.
TEXAS AT BALTIMORE
A big series in the American League as the two-time defending champion Rangers visit the suddenly important Orioles. Texas has cooled off a bit in recent days, while Baltimore just impressed on a road trip to New York and Boston. The Rangers opened at -140 tonight, but sharp Orioles money brought that down to -130. This is “pro-Baltimore” money on the theory that the market still hasn’t properly adjusted to the team’s improvement under Buck Showalter based on what we’re hearing from sources. Can the Orioles avoid an emotional letdown after their big divisional matchups?
LOS ANGELES ANGELS AT MINNESOTA
Two important things happening in this game. Jered Weaver takes the mound for the first time since his no-hitter, facing the same team he just shut down. And, Albert Pujols may be on the verge of returning to form after an incredibly long slump started the season. Keep an eye on Pujols this week, because he can carry a team when he’s hot. Sharps don’t like Weaver in this first spot after the no-no (and apparently aren’t afraid of Pujols yet!). An opening line of Halos -200 has dropped down to -170. Sharps are fading big favorites in general this year because of parity. We mentioned earlier that they don’t mind fading big favorites who are under .500 for the season either. Los Angeles is 12-17 this season, and 3-9 on the road.
We’ll do our best to monitor baseball through the month of May. Though, our study of sharp action will be prioritizing the NBA playoffs. Sharp betting on second round matchups should be starting very soon given how quickly many of these first round series are going.
Don’t forget that the best minds in handicapping post their best plays right here at the showcase website in the sports wagering industry. Be sure to check the ad boxes every day to see what special features are on tap. Congratulations to Kelso Sturgeon for his recent 100-unit winner on Denver over the LA Lakers in Game Three of that series, and for his 4-1 two-sport Sunday that included a 50-unit winner on the Philadelphia 76ers over Chicago.
See you again soon. You’ll keep the winnings rolling in if you STAY SHARP!