Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, October 29, 2015 at 1:00 PM
We have a HUGE late-week football schedule, with a lucky 11 games on the card Thursday and Friday night (one NFL matchup and 10 college attractions). Let’s get right to them. Note that there are a few time changes on Thursday’s card, but none Friday. I’ll only mention starting times in those time-changed matchups. Games are listed in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND (on CBS): The Patriots opened at -8. Some stores have tested -7.5…but the public loves betting Tom Brady so much that the number gets driven back to the eight. Weird to have a tug-of-war around an eight…but sharps generally like the improving dog here. And, the Wise Guys won big with the Jets on this field last Sunday. The public lost that one…but thinks they got hosed with the late NYJ field goal…so they’re coming back again on the Pats. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 50.5, possibly influenced by a forecast of wind up near 10 mph. (Note that New England will be a very popular choice in two-team teasers because a six-point teaser move crosses both the 7 and the 3 on the way down to -1.2 or -2).
NORTH CAROLINA AT PITTSBURGH (on ESPN): Short road favorite North Carolina has been bet up from -1 to -2. The big news here was the move on the Over/Under. Quants pounded the opener of 51 up to 56 and even 56.5. Carolina typically plays at a lightning fast pace. Pittsburgh isn’t quite as plodding as they used to be….having played a 31-28 game with Georgia Tech two weeks ago. Bad miss for oddmakers. (You might be thinking Pittsburgh is a good teaser choice at +8…but sharps generally DON’T bet teasers in the colleges because team inconsistency creates less real value for each individual point)
WESTERN MICHIGAN AT EASTERN MICHIGAN (on CBS Sports Network): This one has been time changed to 7:30 p.m. ET. Slight move up on big road favorite Western Michigan. They opened at -19 and are now -20. Again…the major development here is on the total. This time it went way down. An opener way up at 70 has been bet down to 64.5. Looks like weather is the big influence here with a forcecast for drizzle and troublesome winds.
BUFFALO AT MIAMI OF OHIO: Also time changed to 7:30 p.m. ET. Looks like a tug-of-war between Buffalo -7 and Miami +7.5. More interest in Miami coming from people who matter…though this isn’t a high interest game for sharps on the team side. This MAC Under was also hit hard, as the opener of 54 is down to 49.5. Sources tell me that move was stat related. Buffalo had some cheap points last week in a high scoring win. They’ve been playing mostly Unders lately when lucky scores aren’t a factor.
TEXAS STATE AT GEORGIA SOUTHERN (on ESPNU): The last of our time changes, also to 7:30 p.m. ET. Georgia Southern has been bet from an opener of -19.5 up to the key number of -21. Totals guys have been going crazy in these Thursday nighters. The opener of 74 is down to 68.5.
WEST VIRGINIA AT TCU (on FOX Sports 1): Not much happening on the side or total here. TCU opened at -14, and has largely stood pat. Stores testing -14.5 do see Wise Guy money come in on the dog. So, we can assume that sharps like anything above the key number. If the public plays TCU through the day, we’ll have a tug-of-war. Little interest in the total, as an opener of 74 is up to 75. That at least tells you that weather shouldn’t be an issue in Ft. Worth.
OREGON AT ARIZONA STATE (on ESPN): Sharps have soured badly on Oregon since early in the season. An opener of pick-em has been bet up to ASU -2.5. It’s assumed that underdog money would come in on the Ducks at the key number. That could come into play with this late kickoff. Squares like betting TV favorites and this is a prime time game on the Vegas airwaves. Early bettors are happy with their positions. Dog lovers will need to see at least the three. Opening total of 66.5 is still there, a rarity for the night.
LOUISVILLE AT WAKE FOREST (on ESPN2): the road favorite opened at -11 before being bet up to -12. What was already a low opening total of 43 was bet down to 42. Louisville played that low scoring game with Boston College last week. Wake Forest has a knack for ugly football too. Let’s hope one of the two offenses figures something out!
EAST CAROLINA AT CONNECTICUT (on ESPNU): The opener of ECU -6.5 was bet up to the key number of -7. That’s where it’s sitting now. Not enough resistance to create a tug-of-war, but not enough love for the road favorite to move through the seven. This suggests early action was from value bets and position-takers. The opening total of 50 is up to 50.5.
LOUISIANA TECH AT RICE (on FOX Sports 1): Big game for the sharps…who drove the road favorite higher and the Over/Under lower. Louisiana Tech opened at -9.5…and is now all the way up to -13. Some dog money does finally hit the board at +13. That’s caused a store or two to backtrack. Weather is currently forecast to be a factor, dropping the opening total of 67 all the way down to 61.5 or 61.
WYOMING AT UTAH STATE (on ESPN2): How bad have things gotten for Wyoming? Sharps are generally suspicious of Utah State right now…particularly when they have to win a blowout to cover. But, this opener of -23.5 was pounded all the way up to 28 against the shorthanded and seemingly helpless Cowboys. The opening total of 52 is down to 49. Little expectation at all for Wyoming’s offense to get much on the board.
My top selections on late week football (plus Friday’s Game Three of the World Series, where Syndegaard is currently about -135 over Ventura) can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. The NBA season has started…please ask about combination packages that feature all the Las Vegas betting sports.
Thanks for reading. See you Friday at lunchtime to study sharp betting in Saturday’s marquee college football matchups.
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