Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 at 12:00 PM
The 2015 World Series begins Tuesday night in Kansas City when the New York Mets visit the Royals. This is likely to be a highly watched series because a New York team is involved. Will it be a heavily bet series? That’s hard to say so far. Clearly many in Las Vegas were hoping the Chicago Cubs would make it. You wouldn’t believe how many oddsmakers, professional wagerers, and betting media members have some sort of connection to the windy city. Mets/Royals is a letdown to them! For everyone else…this could still be a showcase sporting event.
Let’s quickly check in on the current prices before continuing last week’s football discussion with some notes on the AFC.
WORLD SERIES GAME ONE (Tuesday at 8:05 p.m. ET)
NY Mets (Harvey) at Kansas City (Volquez): pick-em, total of 7
Harvey is much more respected as a starter than Volquez. But, the Royals have a great bullpen, and home field advantage in the opener. So…we’re staring at a pure pick-em early in the day. If the public is going to bet…they’ll likely take the Mets because of media hype and the general perception that Harvey is much better than Volquez. Keep that in mind if you see any line movements between now and first pitch. A “big” move toward the Mets would likely mean both sharps and squares are on NY. A small move may just be the public. Shading toward the Royals would very likely represent sharp interest.
ODDS TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES
Also a pick-em! That doesn’t really compute if the Mets are always going to be pick-em on the road. That would suggest being a favorite in all three of their home games. If one team is favored 3 times at home, then pick-em up to 4 times on the road…the math should shade their way. For now, the market is anticipating the likely rotations and has settled near pick anyway.
I can tell you this…if the Mets win Game One Tuesday…they’ll become a strong series favorite very quickly. That would be their SIXTH straight postseason victory, and would have counter-acted home field advantage in this matchup.
As I talk to sharps across the city, I’m not getting a very strong read yet. Again, many were rooting for the Cubs in one league, and expecting Toronto to beat out Kansas City in the other. There are no bandwagons for the Wise Guys to keep riding because they’re the ones who had made the Cubs and Blue Jays league favorites a week-and-a-half ago!
In terms of my read….sharps generally like frontline starting pitching (edge Mets) and offensive power (edge Mets). But, the Wise Guys (particularly the quants) have done a very bad job of evaluating the impact of Kansas City’s bullpen on overall team results. They spent the whole offseason after 2014 saying the Royals’ World Series run was a fluke. Now it’s 2015 and the team is back again after taking out favored Toronto. Sharps are gun-shy about fading the Royals.
Let’s move to the NFL. Last week we talked about Green Bay’s dominance in the NFC. This week, we look at what amounts to a one-team race in the AFC…only two other teams are even in the general neighborhood of the New England Patriots…
(These are composite odds based on prices at various sportsbooks in Nevada and offshore. A $100 bet on New England would win $275 if they lift the Lombardi Trophy)
ODDS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL
New England +275
Wow…only three teams in the whole AFC who aren’t big longshots. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are “tied” for fourth best at a price that’s basically saying “no way.” Obviously Pittsburgh has the better real chance if Ben Roethlisberger can come back healthy. Indianapolis still has lingering respect from being #2 in the Preseason…respect that just isn’t justified in my view based on the current form of the team.
Cincinnati’s great offense, or Denver’s great defense, has a chance to derail New England in January (if injuries don’t throw in any new monkey wrenches). I should also point out that Green Bay is still at +300. New England would be a slight favorite in the Super Bowl if they faced the Packers.
AFC WILDCARD THREATS
NY Jets +4000
Buffalo, San Diego, and Oakland +10000
Kansas City +12500
The Jets have made a nice climb to respectability, and Miami is a developing story people need to pay attention to. But, those are probably just sidebar stories for the full 2015 narrative. I didn’t list the cellar dwellers because they’re so far off the pace. Baltimore may be the best 1-6 team ever. They’re done as a Super Bowl threat.
I will have daily BEST BETS posted each day this week for baseball (Tuesday and Wednesday) and then football (Thursday and beyond). Oh…can’t forget to mention…THE NBA STARTS TUESDAY NIGHT! So…that’s baseball, basketball and football for a Halloween week treat. You can always purchase my top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during regular business hours.
My standard “sharps report” schedule resumes Thursday…
Lunchtime Thursday: How Sharps are Betting Thursday/Friday Football
Lunchtime Friday: How Sharps are Betting College Football Marquee Matchups
Dinnertime Friday: How Sharps are Betting Sunday/Monday NFL
Enjoy the World Series. Hope you NBA fans will jump in from the get-go. See you Thursday!
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