Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, October 14, 2015 at 7:00 PM
I’ve talked a few times already this season about how the market has done a poor job evaluating several individual teams in both college and pro football…as well as several developing trends. The best way to see this is to look at the large number of teams who have either covered…or failed to cover…80% of their games so far in the 2015 season.
I was going to say “here’s a brief list,” but the lists get kind of long! I’ll break things up into four groups…the pointsread success and failures in both college and pro football. First, here’s a look at the college teams who are 4-1 ATS (against the spread) or better thus far…
COLLEGE 80% OR BETTER ATS
Central Michigan 6-0
Southern Miss 5-1
Notre Dame 5-1
Texas Tech 4-1-1
Texas A&M 4-1
Georgia Southern 4-1
That’s 16 teams who are performing much better than the market expected. And, frankly, in many cases…put out signs early that they would offer value but oddsmakers and professional bettors failed to adjust. In fact, with more than a few of those, a betting attitude of “there’s no way they’ll be able to keep this up” has caused too many to fade them! I’m not suggesting the next national champion is in that group (though it’s possible). The point is, for those of you regular students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping, that there are several teams across the full college landscape who are MUCH better than the market realizes. Be sure you monitor the market’s effort to catch up.
NFL 80% OR BETTER ATS
Green Bay 5-0
In this case, it’s all good teams who are doing well. It’s not as if somebody like Jacksonville or Tampa Bay is covering every week as a dog. Still…there were no secrets entering the season about Green Bay’s likelihood to be great. They were a co-betting favorite with Seattle and New England to win the Super Bowl. Yet…the market is still underrating them! Heard of a guy named “Peyton Manning?” The public loves betting on him…yet he’s still 4-1 against the number. (If look through historical records, you’ll find that Manning and Tom Brady have solid pointspread records even though the lines are “allegedly” inflated against them every week).
COLLEGE 80% OR WORSE ATS
Michigan State 0-6
Central Florida 0-6
Old Dominion 0-5
North Texas 0-5
Ohio State 1-5
Fresno State 1-5
Oregon State 1-4
Texas State 1-4
New Mexico State 1-4
That’s 14 teams on the disaster list in the colleges. We have some overrated “name” teams in the mix…particularly defending national champion Ohio State (who’s matching what happened to Florida State last season), Michigan State and Auburn. It’s truly amazing how far the market has missed on those teams! Oh...Ohio State covered their opener at Virginia Tech. That group is 0-16 ATS except for that one game!
Mostly though…we’re looking at bad teams who are even more horrible than the market had anticipated. My regular customers can tell you we’ve been exploiting that theme all season. Bad teams are REALLY bad right now because they have no workable option for scoring points against any team that knows what it’s doing. Please…YOU must keep exploiting this!
NFL 80% OR WORSE ATS
San Diego 1-4
Kansas City 1-4
That’s an unlucky seven pro teams who are 1-4 or worse. Baltimore is the only NFL team that hasn’t covered a game this season. Their push was lucky in Pittsburgh because the Steelers kept missing field goals. Otherwise, that’s a group of teams who were expected to at least contend for a Wildcard spot who are basically laying eggs every week. Though…let’s notice that we don’t have any of the really bad teams in the Power Ratings here. This isn’t like the colleges where some teams are just so bad that they can’t cover. Neither Tennessee nor Tampa Bay made the list despite starting rookie quarterbacks. Oakland’s been more competitive than expected. So far, value has come from fading overrated pretenders.
There should be a lot in those lists to give you confidence. The market makes mistakes. The market misreads teams. The market is slow to react to developing stories. In fact, the market can be very stubborn about all of that. Supposedly smart people will tell you that Auburn will be fine or that Aaron Rodgers is due to have a bad game. Well, he IS due…but he might cover a string of games before the due theory trips him up!
Be aware of the stories that today’s ATS records are telling…and do your best to write winning chapters of your own through the rest of the season.
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See you again early next week to talk about the Major League Baseball league championship matchups. I’ll let them get started this weekend so we have something to read and react to as we pick up with our discussion from the Divisional Round last week. The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. Have a great weekend!
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