Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, October 12, 2015 at 9:00 AM
It’s becoming more common in the national media and on social media for people in the sports betting industry to talk about the Pros vs. Joe’s divide, or sharps vs. squares. Same thing. What are the professional wagerers betting? When are they opposite what the general public is betting?
Today I want to make that a point of focus for you regulars here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. You’re surely coming across these discussions yourself. If that hasn’t happened to you yet…it will soon. The media is still getting its feet wet in terms of knowing how to present relevant sports gambling information. This is a simple way for them to create the illusion of “insider” access without getting too hardcore.
The first thing for you to remember that this shouldn’t affect YOUR handicapping! Make selections based on the proven fundamentals we’ve been discussing for years here in the coursework. Emphasize PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS that will most likely determine who covers a game (with a particular emphasis this year on the teams who LACK outstanding talent). Understand how THE MOTIVATION FACTOR can lead to extreme results when one team shows up breathing fire while the other never gets out of bed.
The Pros vs. Joe’s discussions are often about line value. The public has aligned on a team in a way that’s pushed the number a half a point or a point higher than it should be. The so-called Wise guys are taking that half a point or point for value knowing it will pay off to them over the long haul. You regulars ask yourself this…how many of KELSO STURGEON’S top plays land within a point or two of the number?!
I’m helping you discover games where the most likely reality is 2-3 touchdowns away from the market price. You’ve seen that for yourself! I’m not making that up. We weren’t laying -14.5 points with Appalachian State over Georgia State for 100 units this past Saturday because I thought the line should be -16 or -17. I was certain that this game had BLOWOUT written all over it! Appalachian could name the score. The advantages were so strong that they could have played badly and still won by 16 or 17! As it turned out, they were up 17 at the half, and then they won the second half by 17 as well. Final score…Appalachian State 37, Georgia State 3.
We covered BOTH HALVES by more than the full game spread.
That’s not a Pros vs. Joe’s situation. That’s a blown line that our methodology was able to expose.
Now…I don’t want to suggest that professional wagerers should be ignored. The evidence is very clear that they’re smarter than the general public. Just remember that they do miss some things…and often underestimate the impact of both PLAYMAKERS and MOTIVATION because they’re so focused on “the number.” I’m amazed by this in discussions with them here around town. They’re thinking about points and I’m thinking about teams, players, schedule situations, and mindset. I can assure you that if Appalachian State had bet up to -17, many sharps would have hit Georgia State hard and been humiliated. Again…Appalachian State won BOTH HALVES by 17!
Look, line value is often important, but usually isn’t in the blowout scenarios I uncover (particularly in the colleges where more plays are run…which allows more decisive victory margins to occur). Keep everything in perspective. The market has weaknesses and we’re here to exploit them. The Wise Guys don’t know it all. Squares aren’t always wrong. Sometimes a public team really is a great bargain because the market isn’t giving them much respect. Go check the regular season ATS records for recent champions at both the college and pro levels.
Some quick tips:
*Trust your analysis
*Only fade the public for value if the favorite doesn’t have playmakers
*Don’t back off a play just because the sharps don’t agree with you
*Be confident with your unit sizing…using your biggest bets in blowout scenarios (games that may have as much as a 80-90% cover scenario when the stars align), then smaller bets when you’re trying to exploit line value (which are closer to 55-60% long term)
Nothing wrong with enjoying mainstream media content now that all the guys in suits and hairspray are less afraid to talk about football betting. Just don’t let that sway you. If you’re doing your homework, you’re smarter than the media! I intend to keep it that way with our coursework.
If you’d like some help supplementing your own action, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays in all sports can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Back with you later this week to talk more football. The potential for big bets may be better right now than I’ve seen it in years. As we’ve recently discussed, the market hasn’t adjusted to the negative impact of all the BAD quarterbacks out there. No evidence that this is going to happen any time soon. Let’s keep taking advantage!
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Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
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