Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, October 10, 2015 at 9:00 PM
The San Francisco 49ers were expected to be pretty bad this season. When they opened the 2015 campaign with a home win over the Minnesota Vikings…some skeptics started giving them the benefit of the doubt. But, the Niners have been completely uncompetitive since then…losing badly to Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Green Bay. Was that season opening win just a fluke? Has San Francisco become “the new Jacksonville,” with no chance to compete consistently because of poor management and coaching?
Sunday Night’s nationally televised road game at the NY Giants may provide some answers. New York is off to a good start. Eli Manning and company are 2-2 against a tough schedule…and would have been 3-1 if they hadn’t gagged the last few minutes of a previous prime time game in Dallas. This will be a good test for both teams. We’ll get a better sense of Where San Francisco sits on the full 32-team ladder. And, we’ll see if the Giants have improved enough as a team to take a game like this by the throat and coast to victory.
Let’s see what JIM HURLEY’S key indicator stats have to say about Sunday night’s matchup and the near-term futures bot both the Niners and the Giants…
Won-Lost Records (Strength of Schedule)
San Francisco: 1-3 (#2 ranked schedule according to Sagarin)
NY Giants: 2-2 (#8 ranked schedule according to Sagarin)
Before you assume San Francisco is shot…they have played a very tough schedule. Maybe they’ll look much better against mediocre teams (maybe the Giants are only mediocre) or the dregs of the league. Give them a chance to play someone like Tampa Bay or Jacksonville before assuming the worst! Interestingly, the Giants have also had it tough relative to the rest of the league. They might actually be a Wildcard contender who will impress as their schedule gets softer.
San Francisco: 4.7 on offense, 6.2 on defense
NY Giants: 5.3 on offense, 5.6 on defense
Again, strength of schedule is an issue here. The Niners have clearly been outclassed very badly by potential bye teams. Sunday will provide a very good road test against a non-juggernaut. After the schedule adjustment, the Giants basically have the differential of a .500 caliber team. Heck, in the NFC East, that might be enough to win it! Circle that 6.2 mark by YPP defense for the visitors. If SF stays that bad…they’re hopeless.
San Francisco: -5
NY Giants: +5
Part of the disaster for San Francisco is that Colin Kaepernick has been exposed badly without a former quarterback as his head coach. He’s now mistake prone. And, he’s playing for a team whose defense has stopped forcing turnovers. San Francisco has a grand total of TWO takeaways in four games! Great sign for the Giants that Eli Manning isn’t making mistakes. They probably can’t maintain this pace, which would be +20 for a full season. If they can stay on the right side of zero, they’ll be playing in games that matter in December.
San Francisco: 1-3 ATS
NY Giants: 3-1 ATS
San Francisco covered their opener easily against the sleepwalking Vikings (it was a bad body clock game late at night for the visitor). Nothing since. The Giants were underrated out of the gate by the marketplace. Are they still being underrated here? Maybe all playoff contenders should be favored by at least 10 when hosting the G-men!
Current Line: NY Giants by 7, total of 43
The market has it as a touchdown…which either means the Giants aren’t really all that great, of SF really isn’t all that bad. Home field is worth three points by itself. So, NYG would be -4 on a neutral field in the eyes of the most important betting influences. Do you agree?
JIM HURLEY certainly has some thoughts about this game. But, he’ll only release it to customers if it qualifies for MUST PLAY status. You can purchase the final word for all Sunday action on game day right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155 before the early games begin…or during normal business hours Monday through Friday. Be sure to ask about combination rates that also include postseason baseball through the World Series.
Back with you soon to preview Monday Night’s Pittsburgh/San Diego AFC matchup on ESPN. Michael Vick looked awful last week vs. Baltimore outside of a handful of plays. But having extra rest and preparation time is often a big factor in games like this. Can being fresh and off a loss make up for having Michael Vick as your quarterback?! We’ll discuss that tomorrow, leading off this sequence of big game previews…
Monday: NFL TV Preview…Pittsburgh at San Diego
Midweek: NFL TV Preview…Atlanta at New Orleans
Friday-Saturday: College Football TV Preview…Alabama at Texas A&M
Sunday: NFL TV Preview…New England at Indianapolis
Have a great Sunday…and enjoy the TV finale on NBC. We hope you keep visiting the NETWORK for helpful handicapping statistics…and keep linking up with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK for BIG, JUICY WINNERS!
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