Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Saturday, October 10, 2015 at 9:00 AM
Time now for our weekly report on how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the week’s NFL action. Games are presented in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedule.
JACKSONVILLE AT TAMPA BAY: This will be a very low interest game because of the teams involved. Looks like a potential tug-of-war setting up between Tampa Bay -2.5 and Jacksonville +3. That’s the most important number of football betting…and the visitor is seen as fractionally better than the host in most Power Ratings. The total has been bet down from 43.5 to 42. Sharps know that either offense could have an awful game, which might be enough by itself to keep the game Under. From this point forward, I’ll only mention totals that have moved at least a point.
BUFFALO AT TENNESSEE: This line has dropped from Buffalo -4 down to Buffalo -1.5. Usually a move that big involves some injuries. Running back LeSean McCoy will be out a month for the Bills. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is doubtful. All that, plus the fact that Buffalo is being downgraded in many Power Ratings after last Sunday’s home loss to the NY Giants…as Tennessee enters off a bye week…has combined to blow this game right through the key number of three. The total is down from 44.5 to 42 because of those Bills health issues.
CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE: Looks like a tug-of-war here between Baltimore -6.5 and Cleveland +7. The Ravens haven’t shown enough consistency to be trusted as a big favorite. But, Cleveland’s in a very tough schedule spot after playing in San Diego last week. Different syndicates can make a case for either side at the value price. The Over/Under is down from 44 to 43.
WASHINGTON AT ATLANTA: An opener of Atlanta -8 has been bet down to Atlanta -7.5. Some stores are testing -7…where Falcons interest does begin to show. Washington’s pass defense had a few breakdowns vs. Philadelphia last week. Atlanta is a team that can exploit something like that at home. So, dog money likes anything better than seven…but favorite money is ready on the key number. Atlanta will be a very popular play in two-team teasers at -1.5 or -2 if the regular line stays higher than seven. Sharps who like Atlanta at -7 may bet a bit more aggressively than normal in hopes of creating a basic strategy teaser opportunity. The Over/Under was bet up by quants from 47 to 48.
CHICAGO AT KANSAS CITY: An opener of Kansas City -10 was bet down to Chicago +9 or +9.5 depending on the store. Jay Cutler showed enough last week in a close home win over Oakland to earn respect as a big dog. He can lead garbage time drives even if he doesn’t play well for stretches. The total has come down from 46.5 to 45.
NEW ORLEANS AT PHILADELPHIA: Not much action here. Openers of Philly -4.5 and 48.5 are up to -5 and 49.5. The Saints defense is so bad that they’re one of the few teams right now who can be overpowered by the Eagles spread attack. We’re not near a key number…so this game may settle at the five unless there’s a game day development. This was supposed to be a showcase game before the season started. Now it’s a battle of 1-3 disappointments.
ST. LOUIS AT GREEN BAY: Big move here through the key number. Green Bay opened at -10.5. Sharps who won with St. Louis outright in Arizona last week were happy to take that. We’re now seeing Packers -9 or -9.5 at most places. The public will probably bet Green Bay because that’s been working so well. Might set up a tug-of-war on game day because the Wise Guys like the visiting Rams at +10 or better. The total is down from 47.5 to 46.5.
SEATTLE AT CINCINNATI: Very little happening so far. Cincinnati is still a solid -3. This could be a highly bet game because of the teams involved. Seattle is a high profile media team after back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. Cincinnati is undefeated and looking to stay that way. It usually takes a lot of money to move off a three. Hard to say in advance whether the squares and the sharps might line up on the same side here. Will be a fun one to monitor.
ARIZONA AT DETROIT: Another game that’s mostly been solid on the key number. But, some stores are testing Arizona -2.5 because Detroit money has been heavier on the trey. Possibly a tug-of-war brewing between those numbers. Public money might come in very hard on Arizona at -2.5 because they’re a good team in a bounce back spot. Note that a line of 2.5. would make Detroit +8.5 a popular inclusion in two-team teasers. The total has been bet up from 44 to 45.
NEW ENGLAND AT DALLAS: A lot of interest in New England -7 because the Patriots offense matches up so well against the Dallas defense. The number is now all the way up to -8.5. or -9. Some sportsbooks prefer -9 to -8.5 because they don’t want to encourage teasers. Patriots -2.5. will be very popular in teasers…particularly paired with Atlanta -2.5. Dream teaser for both squares (because of the explosive favorites involved) and sharps (because the 3 and the 7 both get crossed). Note also that New England’s bye last week is part of the reason for the line surge.
DENVER AT OAKLAND: Sharp interest on the home underdog. Oakland opened at +5.5 and has been bet down to +4.5. Important that the Wise Guys didn’t even wait to see if the six was broached. Sharps who won fading Denver with Minnesota last week weren’t afraid to go back to the well. And there are a lot of old-school guys who love divisional rivalry home underdogs.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NY GIANTS: Not much happening yet…but the Sunday Night game on NBC usually gets bet heavily. Whether it’s squares re-investing or chasing bailout plays…Sunday night gets plenty of handle. NYG have been sitting pretty solidly on -7. Some stores are testing the 6.5…which could set up a tug-of-war. San Francisco’s been playing so badly that many squares would LOVE the Giants at anything below the touchdown. Some sharps apparently like the big dog.
PITTSBURGH AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego’s been a pretty solid -3.5 all week. Michael Vick of Pittsburgh has looked so bad that the Steelers don’t even get much respect with extra rest off a Thursday nighter. I have seen stores testing the three…which means at least a few sharps began taking the hook. Monitor line moves on Monday. I expect the public to be on the host. Quants bet the total up from 44.5 to 45.5.
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Thanks for reading. I’ll be back on Tuesday with our weekly Futures report. I’ll try to include some baseball playoff notes in that again this week. Have a great weekend!
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