Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Sunday, October 4, 2015 at 4:00 PM
We just saw a real harmonic convergence is issues I’ve been talking about in current-day college football. There aren’t enough good quarterbacks to go around…defenses have largely figured out how to slow down or stop spread offenses except in the cases where they’re being led by true GAMEBREAKERS…and then some bad weather hit!
Go back to this week’s college football results page at your favorite website. You’ll see that almost 80% of this past weekend’s college games stayed Under the posted total. Professional sports bettors generally aim for a 53-55% success rate because they play volume. Anything making a run at 60% is cause for celebration. I aim a bit higher for my strongest bets and releases (as you’ve seen this season, and with another 100-unit winner Saturday night on Texas-San Antonio easily over UTEP). But…nearly 80% over almost 60 games? That’s a HORRIBLE job of linesmaking by men who should know better.
How can you not make a proper adjustment for weather when weather is all over the news and poor quarterback play has been all over the TV screens in the 2015 season?
It’s very important that you regular students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping are aware that oddsmakers (and even some sharp bettors) will make some boneheaded mistakes like this through any sports season. They all think they’re geniuses…but they get humiliated time and again by stuff like this. Even the quants think that weather influences can be overrated. Then, they watch a game where it’s hard to complete passes, hard to drive the field consistently, then hard to make field goals at the end of drives and don’t learn from it!. SMART BETTORS LIKE YOU HAVE TO ADJUST to pick up this free money!
Here’s what to remember with weather:
*Rain makes it harder to score, even if some TV announcers tell you otherwise
*Snow makes it harder to score, which may come into play soon enough
*Wind makes it harder to score…one of the biggest hidden handicapping edges you can find
Now, I’m not talking about 100% results here. We’ve all seen rainy games that happened to turn into shootouts. We’ve even seen snow games where Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady barely noticed and put up big numbers. The point is…over a large sampling of games the evidence is crystal clear that precipitation and wind are scoring inhibitors. I don’t care if some former defensive player tells you he can’t keep his footing on a wet field. I don’t care if some former offensive receiver told you he loved rain because he knew where he was going and the defense didn’t. QUARTERBACKS have trouble gripping the ball and throwing accurately in wet conditions…and have REAL troubles throwing accurately in the wind. This is impossible to miss if you’ve studied the issue over many seasons. (And, few bettors have been beating football for as many seasons as KELSO STURGEON!)
I should emphasize that what happened this past weekend wasn’t all about the weather. PLEASE spend more time finding all the bad quarterbacks across the nation so you can fade them or bet Unders. I faded a UTEP team that had ugly stats the prior week vs. Incarnate Word for goodness sake. There are teams in every conference who don’t know how to move the ball. In an era with increased defensive aggressiveness, teams like that have to get lucky to get much of anything on the board. I faded Fresno State for a big play not too long ago. They only managed 89 yards and 7 points at San Diego State. Oddsmakers are seemingly oblivious to who the worst offenses are this season.
How much longer will they be oblivious? Until big bettors hurt them. Linesmakers listen to money. As long as it’s only low volumes of bettors who are taking advantage of this hole in the market…that hole will stay there for us to exploit. Do what you can to find value until the numbers finally work their way into place.
And be sure to read weather reports! If skies are clear and calm this coming weekend…scoring will rise from what we just experienced. If you know which teams have PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS, and which teams lack them…sides and totals will continue to pick themselves.
KELSO STURGEON’S top plays in all sports can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to check on baseball playoff rates since the postseason is about to begin!
Back with you again in a couple of days. The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your continuing attendance and hard work. I know it’s been paying off for you already this season.
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