Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, September 30, 2015 at 4:00 PM
One of the most obvious things about the first month of football action in 2015 is the fact that the market has misread MANY teams at both the pro and college levels. And, I’m not talking about minor misreads that are worth just 1-3 points. I’m talking about complete misunderstandings about how a team is likely to perform this season with its current talent and head coach.
Just off the top of YOUR heads, you should be able to come up with several. In the NFL, the Philadelphia Eagles were supposed to have one of the most dynamic offenses the world has ever seen. They had allegedly upgraded their talent…for a schematic that was “unstoppable” with the right players. The media kept hyping all that. The market bought it. When Philadelphia posted high point totals in the Preseason against vanilla defenses and backups, that just magnified the trickery.
Starting the regular season, the Eagles were basically priced like a Super Bowl caliber team. They got too much respect as a road favorite in Atlanta. They were laying a full touchdown at home to the team that won their division last year against Dallas. Yes, they managed to cover last week against the Jets…but the offense was still horrible. That was a defensive win against a flat opponent.
Now, Philadelphia may soon get its act together. Or, if they don’t, the market will eventually adjust to reality. My point is…out of the gate…that was one of the biggest misreads EVER. The offense was supposed to be historically good. Instead, it’s been one of the worst in pro football this season.
Over in the colleges, the one that jumps to mind right away is Oregon. Everyone knew they’d drop some with the loss of Marcus Mariota. But…that “drop” just meant to #7 in the Preseason polls…and a few points in Power Ratings. Instead, the team has missed the mark by quite a bit in three of their four games. The one cover came against a Michigan State team that’s been similarly overrated. Last week’s humiliating home loss to Utah was the low point for Oregon “since they got good” in the recent era. They weren’t even competitive at home against a team that’s not favored to win its own division in the Pac 12.
Just run your finger over last week’s college results…A MONTH INTO THE SEASON …and you’ll see how many teams are still playing way above or below oddsmaker expectations.
What does this mean to all of you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping? Many things!
*It means that you CAN earn a profit and make a living as a sports bettor if you’re able to do the work and find the edges. Even though some pundits will talk about a “perfected market” or that the only way to find an advantage is to expose stale lines at slow moving sportsbooks…the reality is that oddsmakers AND sharps will make boneheaded mistakes. That creates numbers that will miss the scoreboard reality by quite a bit.
*It means the media is still you’re best friend because it consistently MIS-INFORMS a nation of sports bettors (and oddsmakers who watch too much television instead of doing their own work). ESPN and the NFL Network probably deserve a tip for all the hype they sent out about the Eagles or Andrew Luck of the Colts, or the Deflate-gate nonsense all summer. You probably shouldn’t watch their coverage if you’re prone to being influenced by talking heads. If you are going to watch, look at it from the opposite perspective. Assume what they’re saying is WRONG and you need to find a way to take advantage!
*It means that the market will be playing catch up with several teams as the season progresses…which will set them up to miss even more developments as they come into play. Some team is going to find itself in the next few weeks…and the market won’t react properly until mid-November. Some team is going to wear down from injuries, or give up on their head coach…but the market will stubbornly refuse to budge off existing Power Ratings. You should have some respect for the market…but don’t be in awe of it. Mistakes will CONTINUE to be made because the world is always changing as many of the most important financial influences maintain their misguided arrogance.
This is all great news for you do-it-yourselfers. For those of you who’d like a little help, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased right here at the website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered by one of my representatives at the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your hard work and attendance. I’ll be back with you again before the weekend to talk some more football. I am planning an early week report for the Major League Baseball Playoffs. We’ll still mostly be football through the Autumn with a little bit of baseball’s postseason mixed in. It’s great to have so much to attack on the Las Vegas betting board!
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