Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, September 28, 2015 at 7:00 AM
As I was watching my most recent 100-unit college football winner on South Carolina over Central Florida this past Saturday, it occurred to me that I really need to emphasize here in our coursework the importance of fading BAD offenses.
You regulars know that I always emphasize PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS. We want mismatches in this area for our biggest bets. In the past…that typically meant riding the greatest athletes. The way college football is being played in 2015, we may be transitioning to an importance of simply finding the worst offenses and going against them.
Central Florida has a horrible offense!
If you weren’t watching the game, that was hidden early because they had a 1-yard TD drive off a fumbled punt return from SC. The final score of 31-14 really should have been 31-7. The game stats back that up, as South Carolina won rushing yardage 216-26, and total yardage 400-230. All Central Florida could do was move between the 20’s. And, they weren’t very good at that with a 25% conversion rate on third downs! It would have been candy from a baby if not for the gift giveaway TD. It was still a right side winner to extend my hot run on college 100-stars.
What’s so unique about “this year” in terms of bad offenses? Here are several potential issues for discussion here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping.
*Defenses are more aggressive than ever. There’s been a long trend toward more and more blitzing as successful college programs copy the NFL. That’s filtered down to a wide sampling of college teams. Defenses still have to be careful about being overaggressive against high octane offenses spread throughout the Big 12 and Pac 12. But, over most of the national landscape…that aggressiveness is paying off.
*Defenses are more talented than ever because more coaches are putting their best athletes on defense. In the not-too-distant past, the best athletes would be running backs or wide receivers. Now, they’re given free reign to chase down the other team’s running backs and wide receivers. A lot of kids see this as a pathway to the NFL. They’re right!
*There aren’t enough good quarterbacks to go around! There are more than 120 teams on the main college board…and the position is now too difficult for many to play well in an era of increased blitzing. If your quarterback can’t make plays…there’s no game for him to “manage!” If you did watch SC/UCF Saturday, you saw that all UCF could do was throw short passes in hopes something big might break. That was their offense…crossing their fingers and hoping something might happen. Sometimes the whole early TV window is nothing but games like that!
*Spread offenses have been figured out by opposing defenses for the most part. There are still some teams who are truly dynamic with their spread offenses or fast-paced pro-style attacks. And, they will obliterate soft defenses (as you saw in many of the late games Saturday). But, you have to recruit talent depth AND have a great quarterback. Anything less…and you’re moving east to west on the field instead of north to south against good teams. And, the days where some hotshot assistant coach can revolutionize a beleaguered program with the spread offense are probably over.
Your homework this week, go through the full seasons stats for all offenses (at a site like cfbstats.com), and isolate the WORST offenses.
Total yards per game
Third Down conversion rates
Quarterback passer ratings
Quarterback completion percentages
Most importantly, the NAMES of the quarterbacks
There are several teams right now who are using projected backup quarterbacks because of injuries to the starter…or because the starters were just so bad a change had to be made. Most (not all, but most) of these new starters are completely ill-equipped to make plays against most defenses.
Here’s an approach you can use. Think of each college football game like a baseball game in terms of the betting line. List the projected starting quarterback as the “starting pitcher.” This will force you to track down the quarterbacks at these lesser programs and study your stats. I’m serious, many big plays will pick themselves when you see the awful stats of these “in-over-their-heads” signal callers. It will jump out immediately how badly oddsmakers are doing with this type of player.
Something for you to get busy with between now and the resumption of the college schedule. Between now and then, keep building your bankrolls with nightly baseball. (Of course, if you’re reading this Monday…don’t miss Monday Night Football!) KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
I’ll see you again in a few days for more coursework. The Dean of Sports Handicapping thanks you for your attendance and hard work. College football is evolving before our very eyes. Be a student of the game so you can continue to stay ahead of the oddsmakers!
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