Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 10:00 AM
The more I see and hear coverage of college football this season, the more amazed I am about how everyone’s missing the point. There are two things everyone wants to talk about…and those two things have very little to do with picking winners against the Las Vegas pointspread.
Those two topics are:
*Can you believe how many TV commercials for Fantasy Football are running during college football games? You can’t get away from them?!
*What are this team’s chances to make the 4-team playoff at the end of the season? (Or, for variation, is there a chance this conference will get left out of the 4-team playoff at the end of the season?)
You’ll notice that my recent big play winners had nothing to do with the National Championship! What matters most to professional wagerers is finding value in the marketplace. It’s actually good news for us if everyone’s talking about something besides that. We want the public to be distracted and ill-informed. We want oddsmakers doing TV, radio, or newspaper interviews where they talk about whether or not Alabama is already out of it. The deal is…don’t YOU fall into that trap!
*Just change the channel if you’re sick of all those TV commercials for fantasy football. I’m sick of them too. I can’t believe that their market strategy was to make everyone furious at them for the constant barrage. If you have a good product, you don’t have to work that hard to make everyone try it!
*Avoid mainstream media discussions about the national title picture. That’s all just hot air right now because there’s no way to know for sure who’s going to suffer bad luck down the road with major injuries, bad officiating, or myriad other issues. It’s pretty ridiculous that somebody will say something about the national race on a morning radio show, then the rest of media spends all day covering what was said on that radio show.
Students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping need to focus on the marketplace (pointspreads), the teams (stats and film study), the PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS who typically determine who covers, and how schedule dynamics are shaping THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. You can do all that with your TVs and radios off.
Basically, the ONLY thing about the Final Four you need to realize right now is that it serves as a distraction to the PLAYERS. Did you notice that #1 Ohio State has been playing like crap the past few weeks? Did you notice that #3 TCU was sweating out the fourth quarter against SMU? Did you notice that Michigan State got outgained badly by Air Force in that morning start? Alabama and USC both lost outright as home favorites in the #2 and #6 spots in the polls. In fact, every top six team who took the field last week failed to cover by DOUBLE DIGITS!
When teams are in the top four…or right on the doorstep…the players start thinking too much about January and not enough about September. Even though I’m not particularly surprised about non-covers, I can’t believe HOW flat Ohio State and TCU have been this season. You shouldn’t be sweating the fourth quarter when you’re favored by 30-40 points.
So…it’s okay to think about fading the very top of the heap right now for value. But, your best bets are actually going to come from talented teams who feel disrespected by the process. Teams who want to prove a point about their quality will play sharp football and run up the score.
*Look for teams just outside the top 15 who want to make a statement
*Look for unranked teams who believe they should be ranked
*Look for “new” power programs in the mid-majors that are just hitting their stride this season
Those elements are driving THE MOTIVATION FACTOR right now. It’s great if you can add a little juice with revenge elements or situations where the opponent is in a letdown spot.
That’s your homework for this week. Try to find “target” teams from the three bullet points above. Review their straight up and ATS performances so far…and monitor them closely this week and through the next month. Then, stay on top of the schedules do you know which teams are in letdown, bounce back, or look-ahead situations this week. You should already be doing that based on past guidance here in the coursework. It’s easy to get lazy though once a busy season is under way. DON’T GET LAZY! Hard work is rewarded in this field.
If you don’t have time to do the hard work right now, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. I will have more major releases coming up shortly. This is a great time to try things out.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. Please stay focused as you avoid all those mainstream media distractions. Back with you in a few days with an NFL discussion for the weekend. See you then.
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters