Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, September 22, 2015 at 1:00 PM
There are a lot of very interesting stories developing in the NFL Futures markets. You probably know that several playoff hopefuls are off to disappointing 0-2 starts. That’s caused their championship odds to fall dramatically in some cases. There are also a few teams like Arizona, Atlanta, and the NY Jets who are shooting up the scale after surprisingly impressive 2-0 starts.
The best way to go through all of this is just to run the complete ladder from best to worst. I’ll start with the favorites to win the championship and work my way down. To give you a sense of recent movement, I’ll put notes about direction in parenthesis by each team. This is one of those reports that you want to go through slowly so you can really focus on the most important moves.
(For first time readers…the numbers you see reflect the return on a $100 bet. If you bet on Green Bay to win the Super Bowl right now, you’re risking $100 to win $400. I’ve taken a composite of Futures prices in Las Vegas and offshore to arrive at the numbers. Prices vary at individual stores.)
TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL
Green Bay +400 (surging from +400 before W1, +500 before W2)
New England +500 (surging from +700 in both)
Seattle +650 (falling from +450 and +600)
Denver +1400 (steadying)
Arizona +1600 (surging from +3300 and +2500)
Indianapolis +1600 (plummeting from +900 and +1200)
Dallas +1800 (steadying, even with injuries)
Philadelphia +1800 (falling from +1600 and +1400)
Pittsburgh +2000 (surging from +2500)
Cincinnati +2000 (surging from +3300 and +2500)
A lot going on just in the top 10. Green Bay and New England are solidifying their holds on the top spot in each conference. They look to be head and shoulders above the field except for Seattle…and Seattle is off to an 0-2 start after losing in Green Bay. The market believes the two-time defending NFC champs will right the ship enough to be competitive. Nobody else is at +1000 or better. Barring injuries to Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, the Packers and Pats may be on their own island this season.
Arizona is now seen as a TOP FIVE team! The Cards do have a great record when Carson Palmer is healthy.
Indianapolis is the big negative story here. The Colts were supposed to be truly elite…but it’s been nothing but a nightmare so far against the Bills and Colts. There’s time to get that fixed. But behind-the-scenes turmoil usually doesn’t fix itself until somebody’s fired.
Philadelphia probably would have fallen further if more teams in the NFC were looking truly impressive. It’s been an awful start for Chip Kelly and the Eagles. The injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for Dallas are keeping the Cowboys from rising higher and the Eagles from sinking lower.
Atlanta +2200 (surging from +4000 and +3300)
Kansas City +2800 (settling after +3300 and +2500)
Buffalo +3300 (settling after +4000 to +2500)
Miami +3300 (falling from +2500)
Baltimore +3300 (plummeting from +2200 and +2500)
Carolina +3300 (surging from +4000)
NY Jets +3300 (surging from +6600)
San Diego +4000 (down from +3300 and +2800)
St. Louis +4000 (stabilizing)
Minnesota +4000 (stabilizing)
Only 12 teams will reach the playoffs…but it looks like about 22 teams can make reasonable cases as at least “Wildcard” caliber right now. These dozen listed darkhorses will only be fighting for a handful of spots if the top teams keep winning.
Big moves here for Atlanta, the NY Jets, and Carolina. Those teams are a combined 6-0, though they look to have all benefitted from favorable schedules. Atlanta had it the toughest…but it might turn out that Falcon victims Philly and NYG just aren’t very good. For now, the market sees them as #11 in the NFL based on composite Futures prices.
San Francisco +6600 (down from +4000)
Detroit +6600 (down from +3300 and +5000)
New Orleans +6600 (down from +3300 and +5000)
NY Giants +6600 (down from +3300 and +5000)
Interesting group. The market has soured on them after a combined 1-7 start (SF beat Minnesota for the only win, while the other three are falling in lockstep). There are three quarterbacks who have been to Super Bowls in this mix, and three head coaches who have led teams there. Respect for those factors are all that’s separating that quartet from the more distant longshots remaining.
Houston +10000 (stable)
Washington +10000 (stabilizing)
Cleveland +1000 (stabilizing)
Tampa Bay +12500 (all over the place within the longshot range)
Tennessee +12500 (stabilizing)
Oakland +12500 (surging from +15000 and +25000)
Chicago +15000 (plummeting from +6600 and +10000)
Jacksonville +15000 (surging from +17500 and +25000)
Chicago’s the big disaster story…as the Futures market now has them as the second-worst team in the NFL in terms of championship hopes. Six of the surrounding teams are off to 1-1 starts…and their prices will rise or fall off what happens over the next month. Houston sits at the top despite their 0-2 record because the team will be healthier down the road than they are now in terms of impact talent.
I’ll be back with you Thursday to begin our normal weekend schedule of articles that analyze “sharp” betting in the marketplace. Daily baseball BEST BETS can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card between now and then. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during regular business hours.
Thanks for reading, and telling your friends about this special Tuesday feature. Smart bettors can learn A LOT by monitoring the Futures markets. See you Thursday.
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